Seven-Point Teasers

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The discussion

Requirements for a Good Bet

On seven-point teasers in the National Football League, you may find sportsbooks that charge -130 or -140. Two-team teasers at -130 require 75.2 percent accuracy to be break-even, and -140

requires 76.4 percent accuracy. If the sportsbook pays +150 on three-team teasers, you need 73.7 percent accuracy to break even. This is true whether the sportsbook is in a brick-and-mortar casino, such as in Las Vegas, or an online sportsbook.

Tease All

Giving each team seven points resulted in a 69.9 percent chance of covering, a 28.6 percent chance of losing, and a 1.4 chance of pushing for the NFL games played in recent years. Throwing out the ties meant covering a seven-point tease 71.0 percent of the time. That is not good enough to get an edge. You can’t select random teams for seven-point teasing.

Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7

Use the same rules to find teams to tease for seven points as were worthwhile using to tease for six or 6.5 points. You want the teased points to capture the 3 and the 7. That means favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 and dogs of +1 to +2.5. (No NFL teams are ever listed at +0.5 due to the rarity of a tie.)

The percentage of covering with seven points ought to be higher than the rate at which 6.5-pointers cover by the value of half of a 1, 2, 8, or 9, which means you pick up an extra percentage point. If 6.5-pointers cover at a 75 to 76 percent rate, then seven-pointers ought to cover at 76 to 77 percent.

Teasing Selected Spreads for Seven Points

Here are the data for the recent years:

• NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 168-50-2 for 77 percent covers.
• NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 52-30-0 for 70 percent covers.
• NFL home dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 121-39-1 for 76 percent covers.
• NFL visiting dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 157-63-0 for 71 percent covers.
• The total of the above four categories is 498-182-3 for 73 percent covers.
• The comparable number for NFL games played was 76 percent.

Summary of Seven-Point Teasers

Seven-point NFL teasers to pick up both the 3 and the 7 look worthwhile if you can get excellent terms.

As a practical matter, the only time to tease for seven points instead of six is when you want to tease a -9.5 favorite.

This is part of an occasional series of articles.

Excerpted with permission from Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, edited for this format.