The Best Time To Place Your Bets

King Yao is the author of Weighing the Odds in Hold‘em Poker, and Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. He uses his experience from making millions in financial derivative markets and translates it into gambling. Since he left his trading position in 2000, he has been playing poker and betting on sports. He travels to Las Vegas frequently, especially during football season.

Even though you should handicap games early before lines come out -- as discussed in a previous article -- it does not necessarily mean that you should bet on games early. The timing of placing the bets depends on these issues:

• How big do you bet?
• How do you think the line will move?
• How sharp do you think the market is in this sport?
• How big do you bet?

If you bet bigger than the maximum limits when the early line opens, then it may be prudent to wait until more sportsbooks have put up their lines. Typically, sportsbooks have smaller limits on the lines they put up early. This includes overnights, which are lines they put up the night before the game on sports that are played daily: basketball, baseball, and hockey. Sportsbooks are more eager to adjust their lines based on small wagers in the overnight market than they normally would. If you bet early, then other sportsbooks may copy the adjusted line that is later posted by the sportsbook where you made the wager.

For example, let’s say you want to bet $5,000 on under 185 in a college basketball total between Sacramento State and Idaho State. The maximum limit in the early line may be $500 even if the normal limit on game day is $5,000. The overnight line comes out at 185 and you bet $500 on the under at Sportsbook A. Since it is an overnight line, Sportsbook A has lower limits and is more willing to move the line due to action since it normally gets action from sharper players on its overnight lines. It may also factor in who is making the bet and how much the sportsbook respects the bettor’s opinion. Sportsbook A decides to move the total down to 184 based on your bet. When the other sportsbooks put up their lines the next morning, they also have 184 instead of 185. You are not sure if the other sportsbooks looked at Sportsbook A’s lines and put up 184. Maybe they would have put up a total of 185 if the line at Sportsbook A was still 185. You no longer have the chance to bet under 185, and all you got was a $500 bet. You start to wonder if you had not bet the $500 on the overnight line at Sportsbook A, then maybe there would have been a better chance of getting to bet $5,000 on under 185 once all the sportsbooks open their lines. On the other hand, it is also possible that if you did not make any bets on the overnight line, the line still would have gone down to 184. That would be worse as you would not get even $500 into action. If your bet size is $5,000, then increasing the chance to bet $5,000 may be worth the risk of losing the chance to make a $500 bet.

If you bet less than the maximum limits when the early line opens, then your best alternative is to bet early, especially if you are on the right side and the line will move even if you don’t make the wager. Early lines are typically softer than later lines. If you are a good handicapper (or are following a good handicapper), then the line is more likely to move if the sportsbook puts up a line that disagrees with your number. So it seems advantageous to bet early and get a good line rather than wait and see a more efficient line later.

This is part of an occasional series of articles.

Excerpted with permission from the e-book version of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao, edited for this format.