Question on promos black Jack paying 2 to 1

First of all I do realize that 2 to 1 payment for BJ (rather than the usual 1.5 to 1) is non existent except that it may be offered as a very short temporary promotion.

Assuming that such offer is made and that one is lucky enough to be there,

Is it better to bet on EVERY HAND the max bet you can afford, or

is it better to do the count (and sidecount Aces) and bet high only at higher counts and many Aces are yet to come out?

Also doesn't the number of other players reduce your chances? Or is the assumption made that every one will eventually get their share (4.75%) of hands as BJs?

Your best strategy depends on the rules of the promotion. If they only give you the 2-1 odds for a limited time period (like 1 hour), then you're best off playing by yourself to get the maximum number of hands. I'd bet the maximum on each hand, unless I counted a relative dearth of aces.

F. Bar

Even in a game that offers 2-1 BJ..., negative counts can eliminate advantage. It would be better to bet the max on any plus and lower your bet on negative counts.

I had this same discussion recently, using a 2:1 promotion that lasted for an hour. If there is a CSM table at the casino with the promotion, then you should flat bet the max every hand for two reasons:

1) you will enjoy the same advantage on every hand

2) the speed of the CSM game will be *much* faster than a non-CSM game.

I recently played an hour long 2:1 bj promotion, spent 35 minutes at a non-CSM table, counting and varying my bet accordingly, dropped $300 and didn't get a single bj. The last 25 minutes I played at the CSM table, flat bet the max, got 4 times as many hands, hit 5 bjs and won $500.

-C

$5000 bankroll
6D, DOA, DAS, S17
Hi-Lo, all indices -10 to +10

Here are some numbers -- I used Wong's PBJA

...
-2: $0
-1: $32
-0: $50
+0: $73
+1: $94
+2: $117
+3: $140
+4: $162
+5: $185
...

Enjoy.

--The Mayor

Provided you are adequately bankrolled, flat betting the table maximum is the indicated strategy. No only shouldn't you give a damn about the count but there are some refinements (ask the Vampire!) whereby you forego some marginal splits in order to speed up the game and not stand in the way of those 2:1 naturals.

If you must, you can follow the count for some playing decisions but betting?! Don't forget that you have a 1.9% advanage approximately, off the top of the shoe! You know how low the count must drop to neutralize that? Stay put, relax and keep betting fast.

Flat betting table max might be "your" indicated strategy, but it is certainly is not mine.

You're telling me I should not give a damn about the count when betting this game? Who in the hell is stupid enough to bet the max when no advantage may exist during some negative counts,regardless of your bankroll? It dont take much(depending on the rules) you may find yourself in big trouble much sooner than you anticipated.

Always betting the max is for the ploppy not for the counter.

Mayor:

thanks for the ramp info. That leaves the decision the custom-made for every player depending on their personality, bank roll and number of other players.

Now could you please (Please,please!) give me the same betting ramp

2D,pen 70/104, DOA,DAS,H17, No LS, NO RSA
nO mid-shoe entry, no spreading to 2hands in middle

AND

6D,pen 4.5 /6, DOA,DAS,H17, No LS, NO RSA ,
midshoe entry OK, spreading to 2 or 3 hands in mid shoe OK

Thanks a lot in advance.

Sridhar97@aol.com

Sorry, I am not going to do those sims. I think you get the idea, and an approximately correct ramp is good enough.

--Mayor

Always betting the max is for the ploppy not for the counter.

This is precisely the reason why flat betting IS the correct strategy.

Mayor:

The quickness with which you did the ramp for the other scenario, made me think it is easy and automatic.I should not have bothered you.

I bought casino verite software paying $70 or $80, a year ago but I could not learn to use it. It was too techie for me. so, I don't know to do the sims.

But I have BJ- books. I will be able to manage.

Thanks again.

If you want to send me email with the details on where this game can be found, I will gladly do the sims and correspond with privately about the matter.

advantageplayer@hotmail.com

Otherwise, good luck, and I hope you make a lot of money!

--Mayor

"Flat betting table max might be "your" indicated strategy, but it is certainly is not mine. You're telling me I should not give a damn about the count when betting this game? Who in the hell is stupid enough to bet the max when no advantage may exist during some negative counts,regardless of your bankroll? It dont take much (depending on the rules) you may find yourself in big trouble much sooner than you anticipated."

If you do not get "your share" (or more) of naturals, you don't have the edge in that game!

What happens if you are betting $100 all the way but drop to $50 "because the count dropped" and you are dealt a natural?

"Always betting the max is for the ploppy not for the counter."

Alright. I guess all the guys flat betting table maximum every time such a prop comes up are ploppies who are in town for the dentists' convention.

You have an edge of nearly 2% to begin with and bet sizing does not improve that very much. Why risk exposing your skill and getting kicked out when you are at a virtual give away? I suggest making flat bets of what you'd normally bet at +4. Such promotions provided the initial seeds to my bankroll. I'd advise making very few count based strategy variations or doing anything else that might jeopardize the rare opportunity. Totally looking away and paying no attention to the exposed cards is even a good idea. You don't really need to count. At such promos there will be card counters everywhere.

I dont understand? I do happen to know a little bit about this game called blackjack.

" If you do not get "your share" (or more) of naturals, you don't have the edge in that game!"

"What happens if you are betting $100 all the way but drop to $50 "because the count dropped" and you are dealt a natural? "

Big deal, how many times have we won hand after hand during negative counts, should we have bet the max also? I dont care if I'm in a fantasy game where I have a 10% edge, I would still use counting strategies and not keep placing ridiculous max bets during negative counts where no advantage exist just because the overall "game is good".

If you like what you believe then go for it, but in my books betting the max when you are at a disadvantage is foolish, you are throwing your money away.

2:1 blackjacks adds about 2 1/4% to the game. Counting in the best conditions gives you about 1% advantage. So you run the risk of getting thrown out of the 2% advantage situation by varying your bet, in order to gain about another 1/2%?

I think you would want to kelly size your bets based on the off the top advantage, and flat bet it. Take the 1/2% to 1% -EV on the negative counts and hope you get your share of BJs to make up for it.

Hard for a casino to back you off flat betting a promo they offer. Never saw a "you can only bet table max when there are no aces left" sign. As they say on Wall Street, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered."

"I dont understand? I do happen to know a little bit about this game called blackjack."

I think there's always more to learn about the game, however small or big. The other day, we were reading a post by an expert who stated that he was surprised to see some simulation result going against his intuition.

You tend to take things personally a bit much and get indignant quite easily. As I recall this was the reason that you found yourself getting no responses from regular posters or experts on Green Chip. If anything, such an attitude is also a handicap when playing Blackjack. If anything, you got some learning to do in that department.

--Cyrus

If you're worried about getting barred, I dont see any problem with only betting half your flat bet when not having an advantage...this is NOT being a pig, it is being wise.

If one would chooses to bet the max on every hand even if they dont have the advantage then they must be having fun throwing money away.,,.hey as long as you're having fun who cares, right?

Lets DO it ploppies, go for it!

2:1 blackjacks adds about 2 1/4% to the game. Counting in the best conditions gives you about 1% advantage. So you run the risk of getting thrown out of the 2% advantage situation by varying your bet, in order to gain about another 1/2%?

You are comparing two totally different situations.
First, the gain from the use of a bet spread is not just to increase EV but to lower risk. By lowering risk you can increase your average bet size with the same ROR and achieve a greater absolute return return.

Second, counting in a 2-1 promo game is quite different from counting a regular game owing to the enhanced effects of removal and generic figures based on % advantage from standard blackjack games are not directly applicable.

You know how low the count must drop to neutralize that? Stay put, relax and keep betting fast.

Not that low actually. Remember the EOR's are worth 40% more than normal because of the added bonus. Also, see my comments below concerning bet sizing.

5 years ago such promotions were so valuable in relative terms that cover and speed were important considerations. I'd travel thousands of miles to play in such a game. Nowadays, when even the worst internet casinos offer an advantage of 3%+, I'd concentrate on maximizing the value of such an opportunity, which would probably mean learning a specialized count and a small spread, probably not too closely correlated with the count. That is, if I bothered at all. (I didn't with the last one, a CON promotion on Xmas day).