No flux no bucks

I have hear ths saying before from different people. In BJ the only way to win significant money is to bet big when you have the advantage. Unfortunately as Don S. had mentnioned in BJA3eddition, the readon why card counters get killed is becuase when the count is high and you are playing max bets, you come into a string of losses at the high bet levels.

Is there any way to minimize the major fluctuations or is this just what a person has to endure in order to win money in the long run?

I was just curious.

Brendan

is just what Don wrote about. You make the big money when the big bets are out...but you also get killed sometimes. It's almost like the exact opposite of what it should be...and is very frustrating. Especially when you see other bettors making big bets in negative counts and winning every hand. However, you want to put it: no pain, no gain, no flux, no bucks; blackjack sucks sometimes. It all comes down to the math. If you can make it to the long run and do what you are supposed to do, you should make money. Unfortunately, if is one of the biggest words in the English language.

never comes its just what the book sellers want you to believe so you keep buying their wares.Lets face itif you realize its all a scam to sale software and books you would quit

The game does have wild swings but I still win more than I lose and am a long term winner. I can't say I've gotten rich counting cards but I certainly do better than the average Joe. I've seen good basic strategy players and they mostly lose because they don't vary their bet with the count. I think most BJ authors will tell you they haven't gotten filthy rich on their books and software. As I've often written here, I salute anyone who makes their living BJ (or gambling in general).

"the long run never comes. It's just what the book sellers want you to believe so you keep buying their wares. Let's face it, if you realize it's all a scam to sale software and books you would quit."

Yeah, can't argue with that impeccable logic. I've made, oh, hundreds and hundreds with my book sales! Hell, last quarter's royalties alone were $208.19!!

Can't say I've ever made that kind of money playing blackjack.

Don

How can that be? All MY friends have a copy of BJA3rdEd, so I have to extrapolate that there is at least one copy in most homes in America, like the Old and New Testament Bible, the Tantras or the Koran. Yes? Or is my math and/or logic fouled up?

Cobbson

"How can that be? All MY friends have a copy of BJA3rdEd, so I have to extrapolate that there is at least one copy in most homes in America, like the Old and New Testament Bible, the Tantras or the Koran. Yes?"

Sigh. It SHOULD be true, but it isn't! :-)

"Or is my math and/or logic fouled up?"

Neither. There's a lesson here somewhere. Never equate the quality of a book with the number of copies that it sells -- at least when it comes to gaming literature. You understand that the big sellers in the industry are Scoblete and Patrick, right?

Don

When a simulation for that game says you've got an EV of $300 per hour but a standard deviation of $6,000 per hour it's not joking around. It takes a while for the $300 EV hours to add up but 500 hours standard deviation of $134,164 and 500 hours of EV would be $150,000 so eventually EV does catch up.

Many "counters" play inferior games believing if it's a blackjack game, it's beatable. They either can't or won't travel. Poor pen (+ poor rules) games = all fluctuation, no winrate. Excellent pen (+ good rules) = lots of fluctuation, good winrate.

The tricks are finding better games such as tracking Aces with big bankroll... use 1/8 Kelly or less even when you bet table maxes...

Yes BJT, I agree and do so.
Where I play, I have 2 more aces as usual.
An advantage of about 8%.
I could make more money if I would play 2 spots,
but I play only one spot and the flux are very, very small.
What the flux increase much is losing doublings and splittings.

The best E.H.

marketing to hotels like the Bible publishers Cobb mentioned? You'd have to go outside of Vegas I guess. Maybe a "summary" version would sell to hotels and be placed in each room. You could educate America about 6/5 and BS.

From browsing bookstores I know it's true, but I don't understand it. And aside from the bad, or lack of, logic in Patrick's books, the writing is awful.

What do you mean?

and I'm not going to sweat it. My profits are approx 8000 units over the last 1.5 years. There is nothing that I would have done differently over the last couple of days. - Shit happens.

BJ authors are not writing for the money. I'm really surprised that Don let you off the hook so easily.

Books like BJ Attack 3 and Professional BJ are worth their weight in gold.

Hi Brendan it's very simple, normally you get one ace in every
13 upcards.
Because my ingenious abilities, huuuuuuuuh , I get 3 aces
in 13 upcards.

E.H.

Personal record, Treasure Island, Mn. 8K+ on a quarter game.
My friend said, "You're lucky it wasn't an 8 decker."

The average person doesn't get excited about conservative financial matters. They want to hear about big returns. Even after Madoff et al. I'm willing to step out on a limb hear and guess that most buyers of gambling books are men. Furthermore, they are between the ages of 25 and 48. This same age group is a pain in the neck when discussing investment or insurance issues.

They are do-it-yourselfers and think they are getting screwed by anyone selling anything. They don't want anyone making money "off of them". God forbid your advisor or t.v. salesman actually makes enough money for gas and food. They don't understand that the more the salesperson makes, the more service they will get (or at least can demand). Just learn to choose people you can trust. They think they can make big time returns and get Warren Buffet rich.

My best customers are single women in their late 40's to mid 70's. The younger group have gone through divorce and have raised children on small incomes. Once I earn their trust, they ask me what they should do. They are con=servative and not pre-occupied with getting rich. They want security first. Men seem to never fully trust and are always looking for something better. Near retirement or retired men are a bit better.

I think it's the nature of the demographic that sells Patrick's books. If SW re-writes Professional Blackjack and intersperses stories from his days as a pro, he would sell more copies. He likely has a ton of stories from all over the globe that would captivate a reader. The reader may skip everything else, but SW would not be to blame as long as the info is there and he'd make more money. Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack comes to mind.

SW would have to change the title to something like "Get Freak'n Rich Beyond Your Dreams off those Greedy Casinos!" Of course, buried in the text somewhere, he could clarify that a huge bank, lots of time and travel etc... would be needed. This would alleviate his better moral character from the guilt of misleading readers. Patrick apparently has no such moral standards.