Is FLASH Lying?

Below on the BJ21 Free Message Board, longtime member FLASH writes:

In the last 18 years ... I have averaged $46.5K per annum (losing years included) ...
My best year had me winning 81K. That year ... I made 240K ... and then lost back most of it in Las Vegas - due to my overly optimistic sub-optimal "over-betting". Almost needless to say, that was early in my career.

http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?read=162458

Just to do the math, averaging $46.5K for 18 years = $837K in lifetime winnings, nearly one million dollars! The problem is FLASH posted on Green Chip that he was a slight lifetime loser three years ago.

I quit Green Chip because too many deluded liars pretended to be winners and gave bad advice. BJ21 invites that with a Craps Board and losing SSB sports service. Previously FLASH was not among those poseurs. It seemed he stopped overbetting and blackjack subsidized his travels while he earned comps and also won at low-limit poker.

I am sad to see that FLASH has resorted to misrepresenting himself while giving out advice.

it appears very possible, based on my higher math skills, even at just over 10 hours a week:

50 weeks @ 40 hours = 2000 hours annually
2000 hours @ 100 hands per hour = 200,000 hands annually
200,000 hands @ $100 each = $20,000,000 annual action
$20,000,000 in action @ 1% EV = $200,000

I've seen some criticism of Flash's technical knowledge before, but I don't recall his integrity being an issue.

I have not yet personally met Flash. We were going to meet up earlier this year but turned out not to be in the same location at the same time. I have communicated with Flash for several years now both on the boards and in private, since I joined the message boards. Often I disagree with some of his views (like how much importance he places on a level two count over a level one count...lol) and I sometimes don't like the discouraging picture he paints for new players. I find his Blackjack knowledge to be more than adequate for what he speaks of, so I have never questioned him 'misrepresenting himself'. There have been a few occasions that he has misspoken, which is usually a case of him not getting his point across as accurately as he intended, not intentionally lying. On at least one occasion he has admitted to sometimes viewing and posting the message boards while enjoying a cocktail, which effected the way he tried to get his point across.

These message boards are about players sharing their knowledge and experiences so that others can learn from them. I have learned a tremendous amount from many members including Flash and I commend him for that. I don't have personal knowledge of the post you speak of 3 years ago, nor do I have access to Flashes financial blackjack records, but I am willing to accept that there is a misunderstanding on someone's part, not an intent to deceive. I also think your language #lying#is a bit strong.

Has Flash told the truth about his 837,000 bucks in winnings within 18 years? Flash will pass or fail the litmus test after one of his "friends" mail in an IRS Form 211 (Awards for bounty hunters, AKA Whistelblowers).

and that is we must be careful what we post. Otherwise, some nitwit may try to use our openness against us.

Many experienced, professional players choose not to participate and share their experiences and knowledge because of just this type of nonsense. The end result defeats the purpose of this site, for which we all lose. I don't see what the poster hoped to accomplish with this thread.

Kim Lee - before posting your personal attack, did you contact Flash directly and ask for a clarification? If not, your post is in very poor taste.

FWIW, I have met Flash several times and have found him to be a wealth of knowledge regarding BJ.

I e-mailed FLASH directly and replied to his post. After many posts of advice, he is suddenly silent.

Now let's examine the reactions to my post.

Snapper notes that it was theoretically possible to earn $800K in eighteen years by playing 40 hours per week. But FLASH was only a part-time player. Snapper doesn't understand real high-stakes pros averaged only 10 playing hours per week due to back-offs and travel.

Kewljason writes:
These message boards are about players sharing their knowledge and experiences

Then why do posters exaggerate their success? They want to impress others and get credibility. Readers would be more skeptical if they knew the advice came from a losing player who had experienced many back-offs. People are not impressed by a retired guy who drives two days to earn $500 EV for a weekend in Ledyard, CT or Vicksburg, MS. That is hardly worthwhile even before considering expenses, back-offs, and casino harassment.

Instead of attacking me, people should thank me for exposing bad information.

BTW, if you want real players, read Josh Axelrad, Kevin Blackwood, DD', Chaperone, or BJayCobbson.

It's $46k/year from playing, and playing a lot. Is that so much to brag about?

In my experience, Flash has been quite realistic with the modest prospects of card counting, and I have not seen him exaggerate the possibilities or results. On the contrary, really.

Obviously we don't know if he's exaggerating or not for sure, but I see no reason to believe he is. These results are quite realistic.

Do you believe his Green Chip posts three years ago where he repeatedly said he was a lifetime loser who had often played baccarat and now spends 90% of his time playing low stakes poker? Or do you believe he suddenly corrected an $800K accounting mistake and is a big lifetime winner? Why?

Unfortunately some people will take his advice seriously. Then they will spend a bunch of time, pay expenses, and earn only a little money (like FLASH) before getting barred (like FLASH). But people want to believe the fantasy. FLASH isn't especially trying to mislead here. He is just "embellishing" his reminiscences. Maybe he just wants to enjoy memories of the good old days. But his advice is tainted.

I think FLASH has some knowledge. He got a lot of comps from baccarat. He briefly played high limit blackjack, which lost most of his bankroll and got him barred. But he has not been a successful high stakes player. Instead he has been a recreational gambler who has roughly broken even and gotten comps.

By the way, earning $46.5K/year playing full-time is not very successful. If you did it for eighteen years then you would qualify as a knowledgeable professional. But I don't believe FLASH did it. See kevinblackwood.com for a more realistic description.

We cannot know for sure whether Flash's records are correct (to me they seem very plausible) but that's anyway pointless. What's important is that Flash's post usually have a high technical value and do not mislead anybody. I can confirm that it's still possible to earn very good money at Blackjack. So,please,stop your dirty campaign!

Francis Salmon

...and sometimes, down right miserable years. There is no consistancy year-to-year. You just have to believe, have the time and the bankroll to survive.

Cobbson

Forget the book but in it this guy is lying. Woman says "he's lying, he's lying" Her boyfriend smiles and says aw it's o.k. he's just bull-------g!

Hey-
Is Flash from Ogdensburg,New York? 'Ya know what they say about folks from Ogdensburg New York don'tcah?

I can't comment on his 3-year-old GC posts, since I haven't read them. But I can believe a 40k/year average win, while being a lifetime loser, since he was a non-AP for quite some time. I do know that he's generally a stand-up guy, and has not, in my experience, ever been intentionally misleading or exaggerating.

But I more question why you're drudging up all this here, and whining about it so much. This really seems to be a big issue for you.

Is Flash from Ogdensburg,New York? 'Ya know what they say about folks from Ogdensburg New York don'tcah?

No, he's not, but I'm curious now. What do they say about "the Burg?" I spent a summer there about 30 years ago.

AP based on your GC posts. Why are you going after Flash so vigorously? You must have more positive EV things to do.

Also, you misquoted my post. You say I don't understand that pros average 10 hours weekly, yet that is the number of hours I posted, not 40. I was simply using a 40 hour work week concept for calulation.

You are correct that I am not that knowledgable about high stakes - because I don't play high stakes. I live vicariously through others on GC. I'd like to hear your story. Let us know how many hours you play a year/week and how earned your fortune. Tell us about the lesbians again too.

I say again, I think you probably misunderstood something along the line. We all know that Flash had a gambling history prior to becoming an AP. We know this because he has been very upfront with it. Now I don't know if his winnings over the last 18 years cover his loses prior to that. None of my business and doesn't matter to me. I also don't know his exact status now. Full time AP, supporting himself off winnings? Retired and Part Time AP supplementing his income and/or retirement? I don't know nor care. Again, non of my business. For some reason, you seem to feel it is yours though, which I have yet to figure out. ?? I don't see where Flash has lied or mislead anyone. If you can produce proof to the contrary, then do so, otherwise let it go. YOU are the one coming off as very small in this discussion. I have yet to see one person agree with your position.

Now I see you calculated that a full-time player could make $200,000 based on playing 40 hours per week. But full-time pros can only play around 10 hours per week. Therefore, at the levels you used (appropriate for FLASH), a full-time player could make $50K, but a part-time player could not make $46.5K.

I am not that knowledgable about high stakes

After you wear out your welcome in Vegas, you can get backed off in Mississippi, or the few casinos in Puerto Rico or St. Louis. Then you are reduced to playing crummy games in The Bahamas, Atlantic City, or Connecticut. Or perhaps you can try low-limit riverboats in the Midwest, isolated Indian reservations, or Washington State. But your action will stand out and you won't last long. You will make long expensive trips and last only a few hours. That's why full-time pros spend most of their time traveling and scouting.

I've seen some criticism of Flash's technical knowledge before, but I don't recall his integrity being an issue.

Yes, I'm shocked and disappointed by his revision of history and sudden silence. Integrity becomes an issue specifically because he gives advice based on his supposed success. In addition to losing money, he has posted about back-off problems.

Why are you going after Flash so vigorously?

After no response to a discreet e-mail, I posted a simple question. In response I have gotten attacked. That isn't vigorous.

I live vicariously through others on GC.

Thank you for your honesty; it explains a lot. Many BJ21 posters are like that. They like to gamble and want to believe they can win. Deep down they know they can't, so they limit their action. They still love to post and read about "beating the system".

This creates a reinforcing social community with distorted views and consequent lack of success. For example, I have seen posts about refusing comps and "not playing where you stay". Because they misunderstand, they pay $200 in daily expenses to earn $100-$300 in daily EV. These players have no legitimate hope of covering travel expenses, and blackjack is just a cheap hobby. I explained how to cut expenses to almost nothing while only slightly reducing blackjack play. But they get hostile, because taking my profitable advice is essentially admitting that they are not yet winning players.

Think about these daily vacation options:
A) Spend 8 hours at blackjack for $300 in risky EV and pay $200 in expenses.
B) Spend 4 hours per day at blackjack for $240 in EV and minimal expenses.
C) Spend 3 hours per day at blackjack and 1 hour at "other" for $200 in EV, get $400 in comps with minimal expenses.
I choose option (C). It makes more than option (A), and makes my wife much happier than option (B).