I hate varience!

I think the edge in BJ has deteriorated greatly over the years and I agree that there are better games out there now. I think poker is one of those games and I have dabbled in it. I'm much better at BJ. I imagine the remark about comps is sarcastic (and revives the age old argument of comp card vs. no comp card, which seems to be split down the middle in the AP community). I'm in the camp of might as well get free rooms, meals, shows, etc. if I am going to play anyway. I'm going to go have some fun and make money instead of bantering with you. And my dog gets plenty of petting. Thanks again for the advice.

Of course variance is our friend...good and bad. Yes, he understands it and hates it...we all hate to lose, but your attitude has to adjust to the losses as "inevitable" and "part of what we do".

My point was rather than "hate" neg variance, realize it is "good" and accept it. Attitude plays a big part of this game and "learning to lose" is crucial.

I wrote a POM called just that..."Learning to Lose". You can link to it below.

Regards,
PM

I'm sure is post is excellent (seriously) but I'm not a green chip member so I can't read it.

This is the part of your posts I really disagree with:

My point was rather than "hate" neg variance, realize it is "good" and accept it.

Negative variance is NOT GOOD, and your earlier reference to "bad friend" doesn't make sense. You can't really get rid of bad variance but you can get rid of a bad friend. I still contend that "accepting losing sessions" to extend longevity is a rationalization.

I do agree that "learning to lose" is very important but "hating variance" doesn't mean you are not learning to lose. As you wrote, everyone hates to lose, including the original poster, who is a relatively new player.

I am sure you are a very good player and are a valuable asset to this board, but I will not be convinced that negative variance is my friend.

When you were playing and losing you big bets, were you generally losing the other bets as well? I'm just wondering if you were playing at a time that you basically can do no right and you were on a cold table.

Negative variance is NOT GOOD, and your earlier reference to "bad friend" doesn't make sense. You can't really get rid of bad variance but you can get rid of a bad friend. I still contend that "accepting losing sessions" to extend longevity is a rationalization.

I agree neg variance is not good for the bankroll, but it's there...period! Either you accept it or you quit.

And I never said to accept losing sessions to extend longevity. His point was that he hated to lose and my point was that you have no way NOT to lose if you play this game. Losing 1/8 of a bankroll hurts but until he experiences massive swings he doesn't understand what I was saying...obviously you don't either.

Regards,
PM

I'm just wondering if you were playing at a time that you basically can do no right and you were on a cold table.

Just curious.

Regards,
PM

Lots of hot dealers can be found at Peppermill in Reno; Hard Rock and the Palms Playboy Club in Las Vegas. Some of them are so hot one would think they would be models instead of dealers.

I understand everything you wrote but I don't agree with you. You wrote a reasonable post until "obviously you don't (understand) either."

Sometimes you are playing and the dealer is very hot. My friend just returned fom LV and said that the dealer on various tables was simply killing him and making hand after hand after hand. Not sure if there is anything he could have done to counter affect this.

You will learn that there is no such thing as a hot or cold dealer or table. Losing "hand after hand after hand" just happens to fall within what is known as mathematical variance. Your friend's play represents a small mathematical sampling, so his results were actually normal, as in average or within a single standard deviation on the bell shaped curve. PM was making fun of you, hopefully in good spirit.

Keep reading.

The very silly concept of loss limits is in the same catagory as hot dealers. But I still abide by them because of the credo quia absurdum principle.

Let's see:
I have played on hot tables that stayed hot.
I have played on hot tables that without notice turned cold.
I have played on cold tables that stayed cold.
I have played on cold tables that suddenly turned hot.
I have been killed relentlessly by a certain dealer.
I have played later with that same dealer and emptied the tray.
I have played with dealers that always seemed to be profitable for me.
I have played with dealers that always seemed to be profitable for me and then turned around and beat my butt.
I have played with dealers and on tables with everything inbetween and around the above sentences.

The only thing I can draw from these instances is that anything can happen in the short term and the only thing that really counts is my total results. That variance is there (friend or foe).

That's what makes this game a challenge. Frankly, it's not that hard to get good enough at counting to develop a very modest (1%ish) edge on the house. After that, it's all about surviving the heat, and surviving the ridiculous fluctuations.

I can handle the fluctuations at the green chip level - i.e., losing as much as $4000 on a VERY bad day. The problem with playing green is I can't justify dumping my time into a venture that would like only see me making $35/hour over the long haul.

Playing black (max bet $1k) theoretically nets me $110/hour. The problem is that I have to incur days of losing (and winning) as much as $20k to get there. No matter how many hours you have played this game, it is very hard to stomach that. I've decided to focus on my day job (which fortunately pays $90/hour on average), forego the agony of heavy black chip play, and play recreationally with a max bet of $300-400. I find that playing is actually fun at that level, especially when I'm not playing semi-profesionally (as I once did) and thinking of it as a business.

I may never be heard from again; I made 5 successful trips out of 6 in the past 6 months; this time I'm down $1500 (for those of you who read my "Advice" post, thanks; but let's not discuss the outcome -- at least I didn't lose all of it). OK I'm joking, I know I'll be back.

I *KNOW* for a fact that this trip is basically my variance catching up with me, plus a bit of a negative swing; while if I look at just this trip I should expect to have an enormous positive swing in the near future, I am at least rational enough to look at the last 6 months and realize this goes with the territory.

I don't know if any of you experience a similar thing, but last night when I realized I was down $1200 for 4 days out of a 6 day trip (the most I've been down ever, though I realize it's pennies to many of you -- but then again it's pennies to me too; otherwise I wouldn't be playing with it) I was pretty bummed. 24 hours later I lost another $300 but I'm actually feeling pretty OK about it -- I understand this will happen and I had such a blast playing with the people that were at my tables that it's not a huge deal to me. I'm enjoying my vacation.

Anyway, yeah, 1/8 of bankroll is definitely not a big swing at all. I am a self-professed amateur who's just started out and I've had 1/8 swings on at least 3 of my 6 trips so far.

Obviously, winning is more enjoyable than losing. However, I judge my trips on how I played, did I put the big money on the table when I was supposed to, did I control my emotions and money management? The most frustrating part of playing is losing when I know "I am supposed to win." I do everything right and get killed in the high counts (and watching everyone winning in negative counts while I am sitting out).

Yesterday, after I got backed off from one place, I went to another to play. I had a nice losing streak playing my red chips. At the same time, an older gentleman, well known to this casino, was betting green on two spots and betting $10 to $15 bets on the local 2-Run sucker bet. He walked away over $1000 up, most of it due to winning the 15-1 payout on the "sucker bet" repeatedly. He BS was pretty good, but I was playing Hi-Lo Lite with I16, and gradually lost $200 over the same period of time.

In fact, yesterday was a general bummer all way around. I played at three places, had a losing session at each, gut backed off from another, and ended the day $500 poorer not to mention the gas used. Still, I gain experience and learn a little each time.

I understand what you are saying and I'm in the same position. I enjoy playing, I enjoy the division and the challenge. It is a "game" similar to many other games where there is an element of both luck (probability) and skill (knowledge and use of probability). The difference is that in BJ, winning and losing is measured in $$$ rather than points. I like to win. I don't like to lose. I do like the game.