I hate varience!

I understand it and I expect it, but I still hate it.

Most of you are well used to it, but over the last 4 days playing a number of different times at a number of different local casinos I've lost 1/8 of my bankroll.

I was playing mostly head to head or with one other player but every time the counts got high and I would increase my bet, I lost. I'd double my max bet on an 11 against a dealer 6. I'd get a 2, then the dealer would get a Face and 5. That type of thing has consistently happened over the last four days. Again, I understand it, but it does get old.

Oh well, there is always tomorrow.

When I started this I don't think I was prepared. My first couple months I couldn't lose and now I'm on a 2 month losing streak. I'm starting to lose confidence. The good thing is that I'm still in the black.

Cobbson

..Attitude goes a long way in making you a winner, especially after a big loss.

Cobbson

I stopped by a local casino after work last night. It has decent DD rules for this area and terrible penetration. I figured I would get 30 minutes practice time and chalk up another loss. Instead, I made some money. This morning I played again for about 40 minutes and again came out positive.

So again, I know that I can epxpect big losses and long stretches of losing sessions, but it isn't fun. Like this morning when I split 8,8 against a 6. I got an A on one so I doubled. I got a 3 on the other and doubled it. I got two poor cards and the dealer ended up hitting to a 20. Disappointing, but not terribly surprising. I know I tnd to remember my plays that lose big a lot more than I remember my plays that win big. I track my win/loss by date, location, and time spent. I don't trust my memory.

5% of all card counters will inevitably go bust. If you can accept that reality, then the game is for you. Remember, your odds are much better than in real estate or stocks markets.

dhays,

Consider what would happen if BJ had zero variance: you'd win 82.7 cents on every single hand of BJ. At the same time, the ploppies would lose 10.3 cents on every hand of BJ.

How long would the casinos need to "weed out" the "bad" customers?

See what my title means?

Dog Hand

... 1/8th of BR is NOTHING. R U kidding me? That's only $1250 on a $10K roll. You should be prepared to lose twice that in a single day.

"... over the last 4 days playing a number of different times at a number of different local casinos I've lost 1/8 of my bankroll."

The bankroll isn't sposed to just sit there and look pretty. It's called gambling for a reason, son.

ETF

Yeah, I know. I understand probability and statistical variation. Just because I understand it, it doesn't mean I like it. But I won't whine about it anymore.

I think for us new guys we just need the words of encouragement from those of you who have seen the swings. I know they're going to happen and that I have to play through them I just start wondering when it will turn.

But pretty much from the beginning (20 years ago, now) my trip bankrolls were something like a quarter of my real bankroll, for sessions averaging four or five hours.

I might whine if I lost half a bankroll in a day or two. But ... it can happen.

ETF

Having played for many years, it has been frustrating to see many newbies come on this board and tell us how they won $2000 every trip or $20,000 in a couple of weeks or months. I felt they were either lying or incredibly lucky or lying (yes, that is twice I mentioned that). The swings in advantage BJ are tremendous, really like a roller coaster. I never root for players to lose (actually, I'm lying now because I do root for assholes at my table to lose) but the I'm always rooting for the posters here. It's not an easy way to make a living, or even to have fun.

Then why not do something that really is fun and exciting? why waste your time on emotional turmoil? Maybe you have an incurable addiction. They are quite common, you know.

I think some are lying revereman. Usually doesn't take long for the fraudsters to expose themselves. lol I get a kick out of the newbies that post after a few very sucessful trip thinking they will win hundreds or thousands of dollars EVERY trip. Some are never heard from again when variance catches up to them. lol

and I like the cat and mouse game and I like the "free" rooms, meals, and other comps, and I like the excitement of winning. I happen to hate losing. Now, if advantage play was like in the movie 21 where you win every hand, I think I would enjoy it even more.

So you enjoy losing money? You enjoy the dramatic swings in the game? Or do you win every time you play? Thanks for the free diagnosis, doc, or do I have to send you a check?

Bitching and moaning about the inevitable won't get you much sympathy here. This is part of the game that we all endure...1/8 of your bankroll is nothing! Drop 1/2 or more in a week and see how you feel.

You have to look at negative variance as GOOD, not bad. If you always won, how long do you think you'd be playing? Casinos must bank a win against you sometimes or they won't let you play.

I look at neg variance as my mentor taught me...it's a LOAN to the casinos...don't worry about it! Keep playing.

Regards,
PM

First of all, read his original post. He understands variance, expects variance, but hates it. He might be whining a little but that's what these boards should be for (in part). Our friends and family won't understand it or accept, so why not come here where at least some people will understand.
The variance is good argument because you need to book a loss among APs is a rationalization and cop out. I've been half-shoed or kicked out when losing. I got half-shoed at the Showboat in AC after one good shoe(about $3000 win at a $25 table) after playing there for many years. Granted, a very small loss (under a thousand for me) is not terrible but that's not what kept me playing in certain places. Players need to rathole chips and keep their sessions short. Not doing those two things well has probably been my downfall in most cases where I have been identified.

One of the things I like doing is to look for games that offer a larger edge. This has a major impact on lowering the negative flux and increasing the positive flux. But you won't find it in blackjack. Pet your dog more often. This helps a lot too.
Just get me a comp next time, ok?