Card Counting Spanish 21 vs. Card Counting Blackjack

The starting point:  The house edge in S17 Spanish 21 is about 0.4%, which is lower than its edge in the commonly seen S17 blackjack shoe games.  This lower house edge should have made Spanish 21 as the game of choice for card counters. But has it?  The answer must be no from Moraine’s observations. 

Casinos have displayed an almost cavalier attitude toward guarding against possible card counting at Spanish 21, while they have implemented a variety of strict "card counting countermeasures" at blackjack tables. One solid indication:  All these years, Moraine has not seen one “No Mid-Shoe Entry” sign at Spanish 21 tables.

To all card counter wannabes: Spanish 21 could be your best future. If you start out Spanish 21 today, you could still be ahead of casinos just like blackjack card counters of the 1970s and 80s were ahead of casinos then.

We are all entitled to our own opinions, 

NOTHING will ever compare to the 70's/80's!

It sounds like you guys have played Blackjack for decades, but online Blackjack might be your best future, based on my observation. 

Starting out at a more favorable position than traditional blackjack is only a small reason for getting into Spanish 21 card counting.  The bigger reason:  THE RULES OF SPANISH 21 FAVORS CARD COUNTING IN A BIG WAY. THEY ACUALLY MAGNIFY THE BENEFICIAL EFFECTS OF CARD COUNTING.  

Example:  At high counts, blackjack (natural) hands show up more often both to players and the dealer. But if it happens to you at a traditional blackjack table, your win could be a BIG ZERO. But if it is at a Spanish 21 table, you are paid 3-to-2, no matter what. You don't even have to ask for "Even Money" and to expose one of the biggest card counting "tells".

What's the best book for counting Spanish 21?

I know only two books on Spanish 21 card counting. Both excellent, they were both identified by this website: https://www.legitgamblingsites.io/blog/count-cards-in-spanish-21/

Is Spanish more prevalent in certain regions? I've heard a couple people say it was drying up in some regions.

Can you please explain why you refer to yourself in the third person? Do you have any idea how presumptuous and annoying that is? I've read hundreds of thousands of posts on forums and never seen anything like that. You should really consider stopping.

Don

In the east coast. Spanish 21 is popular and appears to be growing.  Finding a Spanish 21 seat could be difficult, and I have never seen a casino allowing a player to play more than two hands of Spanish 21 even at a one-on-one head-up table.

Sorry, that you considered the use of 3rd person "presumptuous and annoying." But in certain culture, the use of 3rd person to express a point of view is to show the writer's objectivity and his/her utmost respect to the readers.  The use of 1st person, "I". on the contrary, may be seen as rude and self-centered.

Sincerely yours,

Moraine 

In the same vein, when card counting Spanish 21, there is less or no need for "cover plays" at all (like standing on 16 v.10 when playing blackjack even in the deep negative True Count territory).   With that said, you will save some money for sure.   Your "take home pay" from card counting will be more, say +5% in the first year.  But when compounded, isn't that 1.05^10 = 163% in 10 years? And more than 200% in 15 years?

Again, to all card counter wannabes: Spanish 21 could be your best future. To play smarter, start out with the SMARTER GAME first!

Well, you're writing for an American audience, so it would be helpful if you understood that this isn't the way we write.

Don

Really? Please see https://youtu.be/V3NTYyi5lWw?si=uHephoS1spi_k1la

Sorry for the digression, back to Card Counting.  At the thread under "Bankroll", Johnny Football asked about if $1000 is a sufficient bankroll for $10-Min table. Moraine would say $1000 will last longer at Spanish 21 rables than at blackjack tables.   Reasons: Spanish 21's lower house edge, and its slower pace. (Spanish 21 often moves at a slower pace because of its  ploppy-friendly "Match the Dealer" side bets.) With a little bit of luck, the $1000 may even balloon into who-knows-how-much. The slower place would give beginning card counters more time to count accurately and more time to think.

To All Card Counters Wannabes: Being able to count down a deck of card in 20 seconds or less is not a prerequisite to Spanish 21 card counting. 

You switched from talking about insurance correlation (IC) in Blackjack to Spanish 21, but it looks like you are not very confident about Spanish. In Blackjack, it is discovered by Don that the two most important deviations from basic strategy are the no/yes decision on insurance and the hit/stand decision on the 16 vs. 10 hand. In your opinion, what are the two most important deviations from basic strategy in Spanish 21? 

You touched upon one of the biggest differences between Spanish 21 and blackjack card counting: No "Spanish 21 Illustrious 18" has been published as of today, .So it is oaky to plea ignorance in the ranking of Spanish 21 deviation indices.  But it is my wild guess:  One of the deviation indices at or near AceMT + or - ZERO true count, say for hand like 14 v. 3 or 4.

PS: Insurance and 16 v. 10 must be among the LEAST IMPORTANT indices in Spanish 21.

I seem to remember that a pretty good book on Spanish 21 was written by a female author. Does anyone remember details of the book that I'm referring to ?

The bible of Spanish 21 was written by Katarina Walker, who, tragically, passed away at a very young age. You can find it here:

https://www.amazon.com/Pros-Guide-Spanish-Australian-Pontoon/dp/1435710657/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2YOA4IVZDUEFI&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Bjda9EiPj9hfDM1dpWDMGfLahrWUL-zA6dxyb7m2hB0.FBkwGGOVdP90DDW9aJSAj3npK1WWnZEmwgJXOdhYgjA&dib_tag=se&keywords=katarina+walker&qid=1740855025&sprefix=Katarina+Walker%2Caps%2C110&sr=8-1

Don

If you wonder: Will there be something like "Spanish 21 Fabulous 4 Surrender Deviation Indices" in the future?  Again, my wild guess: "No."

But there could be something like "Fabulous 1" for S17 Spanish deviation, that is: DO NOT SURRENDER ON 17 vs. A  at AceMT true count 1 or higher. With that, the lone surrender play in S17 Spanish 21 Basic Strategy is trashed.

Your guess is too wild. Similar to Blackjack, there are corresponding strategy deviations in Spanish 21 too. Instead of calling them Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 in Blackjack, we call them Ilustre 17 and Fabuloso 3 in Spanish 21. I will leave this part as a homework for you. 
 

BTW, your saying about insurance above does not make sense. At higher true counts, players are supposed to surrender all 17 vs. Ace. 

Clever, but who are you referring to when you say "we"?    🤔