Basic advice for upcoming trip

Given the typical 6 deck game with about 70% penetration, what should a conservative bet spread be if i have a bankroll of $3000 and the related risk of ruin.

Back when I played in the 80's, there were single deck games only at the Horseshoe and the rules everywere were great by today's standard and one could win even with a 1-3 spread but these games are different and I am returning after a long long lay off. Your help would be needed.

I will be going to Tunica, MS soon.

Looking at CBJN, there are no decent DD games with less than a $10 min, so DD is out.

I would restrict your play solely to wonging into the shoe games at a TC of +2 or greater. You can't afford to play all. Given your bankroll level, there is probably no need for a bet spread. Just flat bet $25 at any TC > +2 (Hi-lo) and sit out any hands with a true count below that level.

You won't make much, but at least you will be playing to a positive expectation. I hope your trip costs are not too high.

I can relate to your situation. Very much so! I was planning a trip to leave last night for 24 hours. Everything similar to what you state. Worse, probably. I did not go. Despite considering other things, like comp counting and poker for example, I couldn't justify the overhead.

If your overhead is low, if you do exactly as Cougfan advises, and if the opportunity is simple (you'll be there for business anyway for example), than go. Ask at the players club if there are any freebies for signing up (don't let them photo copy or scan your id!!). Look on line and in your hotel lobby tourist rack for coupons for match plays. Put $400 in an easy access (for you, not pick pockets) pocket and the rest in a tough to get to pocket. IOW, make it hard on yourself to put your bankroll on a table with crappy conditions! But, keep enough handy to jump into a good situation.

Make the house work hard for YOUR money! Then, go back to your room, visit this site, join Green Chip, read a lot, go on line to other sites and read (lots of garbage info, but it will help you understand the overall environment in which you are participating and you may pick up something useful).

Look at the other pages on green chip to get a clue of broadening your horizons. Then, do so, i.e., modernize. Comp count at the very least. Otherwise, you are just trying to get lucky and land on the positive side of the bell shaped curve on an occasional trip. I'll bet against your success in that type of scenario.

Safe travels and happy learning to you.

Guess what yopu are saying is that one cannot simply go, sit at a 6 deck table, use Hi-Lo and win with a bankroll of $3000 for one trip?

From Cougfan's post >>>You won't make much, but at least you will be playing to a positive expectation. I hope your trip costs are not too high.<<<

This assumes backcounting to +2TC which isn't easy. It's simple, but lots of time involved and youhave to be comfortable jumping into games midshoe. It means little playing time. Little playing time means fewer chances to win and little time to offset losses. You'll need a lot of time over a long period to "win" with $3k.

Then, expenses will eat up most of your +ev. Re-read these two posts for a realistic expectation and for adding more opportunity to your current aproach. If you want to increase your chances of winning, join greenchip.

If you don't join green chip, then it's implied that you are confident with your other information sources or that you are not serious about learning.

Let us know what you are actually trying to accomplish and you may get additional guidance. Is this a single trip event or do you plan ongoing effort? For one trip, set a budget, get some free drinks, ask for a free meal or two, have fun.

The two that answered you are not saying that. They are talking about long run results. You are talking about the short run. They are also attempting to help you out and give you sound advice.

If in your situation, I would:

a.) not gamble

or

b.) use matchplays exclusively

Key word is CAN.

Long run RoR is out of site.

See Hail Mary Bankroll in left column. Play a $10 6D spreading 1-20 for an approx RoR of 60% or $25 6D spreading 1- 10 for 80% RoR.

As others have said, it really depends on what you are trying to do here. Which of the following is closer to your situation?

Scenario A:
You have a good paying job and $3K is not that much money to you in the grand scheme of things. You are OK with a small (say 5 - 10%) chance that you will lose the whole $3K on a 2-3 day trip, and if you do, then it will take you a month or two to save up another $3K and try again. You mainly just want to have some fun, and have a good chance to make some money on this one trip, and you aren't looking to make this a part time career.

Scenario B:
You have saved for a long time to get the $3K bankroll. You are willing to study and practice everything there is to know about being an AP, and you want to make this a long-term, serious hobby / second job. If you lose the $3K, it would devastate these plans because it would take you a year + to save another $3K.

My answer above assumed that you were in "Scenario B", or something similar. If you are closer to "Scenario A", then by all means go ahead and pound away at the DD games in town. I would still avoid the 6D games, but for a different reason. The DD games are more lucrative, and at your bet levels you won't need to worry about heat. I can't run the numbers right now, but I'm guessing a max bet of $150 to $200 would be about right for a sub 10% ROR over 10-15 hours of play. This should be below the radar of all but the sweatiest of casinos.

Don't get me wrong, I started out as a Scenario B guy with a BR of $1,800. Guess what I did? I didn't spend any money traveling (I was lucky to live in an area with some BJ games). I wonged shoe games, coming in with a $20 bet at any TC of +2 or greater. I scoured the local newspapers for match play and other coupons. I found BJ tourneys that had $25 buy-ins which included 2 $25 match play coupons, and an overlay. I learned how to play winning low limit Texas Hold'em ($3/$6 limit was my game of choice).

After doing this for a couple months, I won $1,000 at a BJ tourney (did I mention that I put in a ton of hours finding the tourneys with the biggest overlays?). That was an immediate 50% boost to my bankroll at the time, which allowed me to bet $30 at a TC of +2 or greater. Rinse, repeat, and get some positive variance along the way. 2-3 years later, I had a $20K bankroll and was making regular trips to Reno because the conditions were ideal for my betting level at the time. By this time, I also had sufficient BR to play the juicy DD games in my home town.

I quit playing for a while because I didn't have the BR available after life threw me some curve balls (lost jobs, kids being born, divorce). Through it all, I maintained my interest and skills, and today my BR is over $50K, and more importantly, I finally feel like I actually know how to effectively use it extract value from casinos. I have more than one tool available, which allows me to operate like a good football team. I take what the defense gives me, instead of trying to force my one and only play to work. Some casinos are vulnerable to counting. Some are vulnerable to other forms of AP. Some are vulnerable to comp / promo hustling. Some have poker rooms that attract really bad players. The key is to identify the particular casino's weakness and then attack with everything you've got.

If you want to be in it for the long-term, then focus on the long-term. What do you want your situation to be in 10-15 years? Focus on getting there. In the grand scheme, it matters not what happens next weekend.

I still remember the gut wrenching agony when I would lose 5 or more bets in a row starting out. Some of those were splits / doubles and it wasn't uncommon to lose close to $200 on a single shoe (which is a hell of alot when you've only got $2,000 to start with). I contrast that with today. The last time I played BJ, I had a $1,600 swing go against me on the turn of a single card. I had to force myself to react for cover reasons. Inside, my only thought was how odd it was that the dealer managed to pull a 5 to make 21 (and beat my 2 doubled hands of 20 each) when the true count was +10. It was a completely clinical reaction, with no emotion. I was happy that the cut card had not come out, and was contemplating how I could gracefully increase my bet after a loss, but other than that, I felt no emotion.

1. Play only double-deckers with good penetration. If you do not know what "good penetration" means, buy CBJN and check out which casinos give a good game with 2 decks.

2. Play 6-deckers either by table hopping, or by always starting out at a table with a fresh deal, but leaving that table at any negative count after at least one deck has been dealt.

At least you will have a fighting chance if you do this.
Read "Cougfan" post above if you have not already done so.

Good Luck!

I don't see why you can't spread 1-10 in a 6 decker if the pen is good and do alright. Wonging of course is probably a good idea if you're not noticed by the pit critters.