Ace Prediction

Though with a very small sample, I was able to replicate in Shreveport a couple of days ago what I had done with an online blackjack small sample: correctly predicting an Ace about 5 times out of 34 attempts. If I am not mistaken, I believe this equates roughly to a 6% advantage.

My next step is to actually try to make some money doing this. With an extremely limited bankroll, my thought has been to 'meet up' with a high roller in Vegas who would be willing to watch me play for a few hours risk free while I surreptitiously indicate to her/him on which hands I think we have that 6% advantage. Then I can play with her/his money for small stakes at first. If successful, we can move on to larger stakes (I saw a $5,000 table max. in Shreveport.).

Alternately, I could try to demonstrate this Ace prediction by hiring a dealer to deal me cards while interested parties watch live via Skype.

Besides the fact that my samples have been extremely small (even though I got very similar results replicating a couple of times), any thoughts?

Again, I realize the samples are very small. But if the same pattern keeps appearing (and others that I am tracking keep failing to appear) with a 'home dealt' sample, with samples from a few online BJ gambling websites, and with 2 different 'brick and mortar' casinos, then maybe there is something to it. If it walks like a duck, ...

Example: You wear Shirt A on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and you receive an average of .4 (four tenths) compliments on each of those days for one month.

Further, you wear Shirt B on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, and you receive 0 compliments for the month.

Can you conclude that people find Shirt A more attractive than Shirt B, or is that not conservative enough because there is not a big enough sample? My answer: Yes, although there is a small chance that the compliments you received while wearing Shirt A are by chance or random, the nature of reality is that the compliments are probably not random. People probably really do like Shirt A better than Shirt B. So if you had a 'big date' coming up, wouldn't you rather wear Shirt A over Shirt B, even though you haven't fully tested the shirts?

Regardless, I realize I did ask for feedback. But for Andre and others, I would consider it more responsible posting if you post more than just an unhelpful aside.

Finally, I notice that the posting guidelines on this site focus mainly on how one responds to questionable texts and not nearly enough on the person who is posting the questionable post. My suggestion for a posting guideline: "Please be respectful and courteous to others. Treat them as you would treat a friend or loved one." It's that simple - it's stuff we learned in kindergarten but we all tend to forget.

That is why you look at large samples. Short samples are full of apparent patterns the ways clouds seem to be full of meaningful shapes.

Green Baize Vampire. I appreciate you taking the time to respond, and I appreciate your respectful response. It may have been easier for you to 'jump on the bandwagon' and 'take aim' at an easy target like myself.

Thanks for showing restraint and class, even though you see a problem with my blackjack thinking.

And, if they tell me I look like a dork in my shirt A or shirt B, I would wear something she likes and would refrain from letting my feelings be hurt. Afterall, I asked with no parameters.

But, if I had 1 date each with a lot of different girls, I would ask the opinion of more than just one other person, i.e., seek information from a larger sample size.

Then you would have to spreadsheet the results to know what personality type liked which shirt. You would have to know their personality types. Then you could wear the optimal shirt most of the time.

If your expected chance (ec) of making it to second base is usually -.45% off the top, hopefully your rrsearch and following the basic strategy of your rrsearch will get you into positive territory.

Of course, if mid-date entry was a known allowable rule, you probably wouldn't want to "play all" since your probability of reaching your ec would increase at +1 and higher. This would also help control your expenses and variance. I suggest you Wong in at +1.00!

Remember, NO means NO, so by all means, Wong out immediately wh=n necessary! Respect is simply the humanly right thing and it will bode better for your longevity. Of course you could enter the date sooner if you round up and use an entry point of +.5, but I wouldn't recommend truncating. The EITS looks for that type of thing and, rightfully so, you may get the tap, barred or 86d thereby spending eternity in purgatory.

Let the trials begin. Good luck!

Overkill, how's your sample size doing? Don't be discouraged from your idea of working with an investor. You may be on to something that suits your personality and abilities. But, prove it to yourself first. Then market it. Good luck.

you guys were right. The numbers disappeared at the 4th casino, and I'm wondering if it's the shuffle or the fact that they only deal to 5 (rather than 7) spots. I need to go back to my main 'brick and mortar' casino and try to replicate, but it's 9 hours away!