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Overkill

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Ace Prediction

Thanks snapper, and

you guys were right. The numbers disappeared at the 4th casino, and I'm wondering if it's the shuffle or the fact that they only deal to 5 (rather than 7) spots. I need to go back to my main 'brick and mortar' casino and try to replicate, but it's 9 hours away!

30 days ago

Ace Prediction

Thank you,

Green Baize Vampire. I appreciate you taking the time to respond, and I appreciate your respectful response. It may have been easier for you to 'jump on the bandwagon' and 'take aim' at an easy target like myself.

Thanks for showing restraint and class, even though you see a problem with my blackjack thinking.

about 1 month ago

Ace Prediction

Not Joking

Again, I realize the samples are very small. But if the same pattern keeps appearing (and others that I am tracking keep failing to appear) with a 'home dealt' sample, with samples from a few online BJ gambling websites, and with 2 different 'brick and mortar' casinos, then maybe there is something to it. If it walks like a duck, ...

Example: You wear Shirt A on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and you receive an average of .4 (four tenths) compliments on each of those days for one month.

Further, you wear Shirt B on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, and you receive 0 compliments for the month.

Can you conclude that people find Shirt A more attractive than Shirt B, or is that not conservative enough because there is not a big enough sample? My answer: Yes, although there is a small chance that the compliments you received while wearing Shirt A are by chance or random, the nature of reality is that the compliments are probably not random. People probably really do like Shirt A better than Shirt B. So if you had a 'big date' coming up, wouldn't you rather wear Shirt A over Shirt B, even though you haven't fully tested the shirts?

Regardless, I realize I did ask for feedback. But for Andre and others, I would consider it more responsible posting if you post more than just an unhelpful aside.

Finally, I notice that the posting guidelines on this site focus mainly on how one responds to questionable texts and not nearly enough on the person who is posting the questionable post. My suggestion for a posting guideline: "Please be respectful and courteous to others. Treat them as you would treat a friend or loved one." It's that simple - it's stuff we learned in kindergarten but we all tend to forget.

about 1 month ago

Ace Prediction

Ace Prediction

Though with a very small sample, I was able to replicate in Shreveport a couple of days ago what I had done with an online blackjack small sample: correctly predicting an Ace about 5 times out of 34 attempts. If I am not mistaken, I believe this equates roughly to a 6% advantage.

My next step is to actually try to make some money doing this. With an extremely limited bankroll, my thought has been to 'meet up' with a high roller in Vegas who would be willing to watch me play for a few hours risk free while I surreptitiously indicate to her/him on which hands I think we have that 6% advantage. Then I can play with her/his money for small stakes at first. If successful, we can move on to larger stakes (I saw a $5,000 table max. in Shreveport.).

Alternately, I could try to demonstrate this Ace prediction by hiring a dealer to deal me cards while interested parties watch live via Skype.

Besides the fact that my samples have been extremely small (even though I got very similar results replicating a couple of times), any thoughts?

about 1 month ago

Would a Certain Counting Strategy Decrease the 3.26% House Edge for 21 +3?

Would a Certain Counting Strategy Decrease the 3.26% House Edge for 21 +3?

If we know that having a King, Ace, or 2 as an initial first card for 6 deck 21 + 3 yields a player disadvantage of 11.86% while getting an initial card that is NOT a King, Ace, or 2 yields "only" a player disadvantage of .85%, does that mean that it could be worthwhile to develop a counting system, or, alternately, simply count remaining Kings, Aces, and 2s, and only play the 21 + 3 side bet for the last 20 % or so of those shoes that have a particular dearth of Kings, Aces, and/or 2s, or is this faulty thinking?

That is, won't the player still be at a disadvantage even if she/he only played the 21 + 3 side bet during those shoes that had, in the extreme, no Kings, Aces, or 2s whatsoever? But won't this disadvantage be much less house-favorable playing the 21 + 3 side bet with a shoe significantly devoid of Kings, Aces, and/or 2s?

6 months ago

21 + 3 Side Bet: Increasing Player EV

Apologies: Correction to My Above Post

Please replace "straights" with "flushes" and vice-versa.

6 months ago

21 + 3 Side Bet: Increasing Player EV

21 + 3 Side Bet: Increasing Player EV

Hello all,

We know that one way to win the 21 + 3 side bet is to combine my first 2 cards with the dealer upcard to form a flush. I have used an online simulator to find out that, on average, one will find a set of any 3 cards side-by-side (6 deck) about 7 times in any 244 card shoe.

For the purposes of this post, I am looking at only heads-up play and therefore counting ANY set of 3 side-by-side cards as a flush. (As you know, when playing heads-up, the first 3 cards - that is, my 2 plus her 1 up card - out of the shoe per round are eligible to make a flush.). So, for example, in the sequence K, Q, 5, 2, A, 4, 5, 6, 4, 9, we count 2 three-card flushes (the 4, 5, 6, and the 5, 6, 4, even though it is not possible for the player to win both of these 2 flushes because they are too close to each other in the shoe.). I am counting the flushes in this counter-intuitive manner simply because that's the way I began counting them, and I now want to maintain consistency.

When playing at home with my 6 deck shoe, I have been able to identify certain shoes that, when I play the 21 + 3 side bet, I count not 7 but 11 (on average) of these sets of 3 side- by- side sets of cards that form a flush.

Again, assuming that a typical shoe of computer play yields 7 of these flushes, and, at home, I am able to play only those shoes that yield, on average, 11 of these flushes, by how much does my EV increase (assuming that all of the other manners in which I can win the 21 + 3 side bet - e.g., 3 of a kind, straights - remain the same as what a sim would predict. In other words, assume I can only identify those particular shoes which contain more flushes but not necessarily more straights, three of a kinds, etc.).

6 months ago

Most Player-Favorable Initial Card When Playing 21 + 3 side bet

Thanks so much, Dog Hand

I didn't think the difference between the two scenarios would be so great.

6 months ago

Most Player-Favorable Initial Card When Playing 21 + 3 side bet

Thank you, and...

1) What is the EV for the first place scenarios, and what is the EV for the 2nd place scenarios. I realize they will both be negative.

2) Finally, I am assuming the number of players has no bearing on the 21 + 3 side bet, correct?

Thank you again in advance.

7 months ago