I am lucky enough to find a great game that has 0.3% positive ev off-the-top and 0.5% rebate on my winnings, no cheating, I believe. I plan to flat bet the game with $200,000 bakroll unless at minus 10 rc. Question: Should I bet $300 or $800 at halfKelly? Thanks for responses. No, I will not tell where.....
"no cheating, I believe."
Well, by the time you find out,it will be too late, right?
I'd flat bet about $500, as a compromise. Your game edge is 0.3%, and, of course, you may never have any winnings! In any event, optimal bet is (br x edge)/variance. Did you forget that last part?
Don
"I'd flat bet about $500, as a compromise. Your game edge is 0.3%, and, of course, you may never have any winnings! In any event, optimal bet is (br x edge)/variance."
500USD is way too much! The 0.3% OVERALL EDGE will make the fluctuations HUGE.
I found a similar game but refused to play once I was forced to flatbet by management. I do know of a better game with a 1% flatbetting edge.
I can tell you CCC since I'm not gonna play there anyway but what do I get in return?
about cheating part as I saw lots winners walked away. But I don't see your point. Let me rephase my question. Assuming I can bet according to tc, SHOULD I bet 1.3% on tc of 4 or 1.8%? Thanks.
about CCC's game as I am with him... I am sure about YOUR INTEGRITY at the same time, however. The NA I knew is a person who will NotAvailable when receiving nice tips. You can keep your 1% off-top game and stayed at where you belong, I had been cheated once. Thanks and no thanks.
O.K. I can tell you the where the game is just to apologise.
I was busy looking around for games everyday like you as well. By the time I was in Columbia, you guys left.
I'm very sorry. You can email me if you accept my apology?
I am not sure whether you have received my e-mail thru bj21.
I take it this game is out of the country? Honestly, there are games out there that have a 1% advantage for the basic strategy player off the top? That's intriquing....
I don't know what the terms of the "rebate on winnings" are. Is this a .5% addition to ... to what? Your buy ins? The amount you cash out? Cash out minus buy ins? Is there no rebate on losses?
What you could do, theoretically, is figure out your standard error (~0.67 x standard deviation) for a session, or hour or hand or whatever the rebate period is, and figure out your gain on the rebate alone from 1 standard error to the good plus one SE to the bad, and that is your average gain from the rebate. Divide by hands per period and add THAT to your .3 off the top.
But personally, I'd keep the old conservative bet ramp. If you're close to zero for a session, you may decide to bet high to snare the rebate, and that's going to add to your ROR.
ETF
