General Tips for Sports Bettors

King Yao is the author of Weighing the Odds in Hold‘em Poker, and Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. He uses his experience from making millions in financial derivative markets and translates it into gambling. Since he left his trading position in 2000, he has been playing poker and betting on sports. He travels to Las Vegas frequently, especially during football season.

You can make money with or without handicapping. You must be knowledgeable about the value of different points in the sports you bet. You must work to find the best numbers and the best opportunities. This article contains some tips and thoughts for you to improve your game.

Shop

Shopping for the best line is crucial to success. The difference between getting an extra half point versus the widely available lines may not seem important because it will not come into play for most games. But there are enough games where the extra half point matters. In the long run, those half points add up. Getting a better price on the money line or lower juice on the point spread can be just as valuable. If you can get a line at one sportsbook at a half point better than at another sportsbook (with the same juice on both bets), then you can turn a possible push into a win and a possible loss into a push. The game may not land on the exact number that often, but over hundreds of bets it will happen enough to become important.

Here is an example of how much you can increase your yearly winnings if you can get an extra half point on 10% of your bets. Suppose you make 3,000 bets a year on basketball games, risking $110 per game at -110. You will put a total of $330,000 into action for the year.

If you work hard and shop around for the best lines, you can expect to get an extra half point (at the same juice) on 10% of your bets. If you are making 3,000 bets a year, you can get an extra half point on 300 bets.

Roughly 3.3% of NBA games land on each number that is close to the point spread. For example, for a line of +4.5, there is a 3.3% chance of the actual game difference landing on +4 and a 3.3% chance of the actual game difference landing on +5. If you get an extra half point on 300 games, the expectation is that 10 games will turn from a losing bet into a push or from a push into a winner.

For $110 bets, 10 games changing from losers to pushes or pushes to winners increases your win for the year by $1000 to $1100. If you are a 54% handicapper making 3,000 bets per year, that can mean increasing your earnings by 10%.

Finding a Sportsbook

An important aspect of sports betting is finding a place to make your wagers. The lines or the wagers that the sportsbook is willing to take can overcome all other aspects of sports betting. It may not matter how much you know or how well you handicap. If you cannot place a bet at a good price, then you cannot turn your great ideas into money. This is similar to a great card counter being barred from playing blackjack at many casinos; he cannot turn his knowledge into money as easily anymore.

In the next article, we will provide sports betting examples.

This is part of an occasional series of articles.

Excerpted with permission from the e-book version of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao, edited for this format.