Hello friends,
After using a 6-deck shoe to deal myself 302 hands that yielded either a win or a loss (in other words, ignoring pushes), I have won 179 of them. If my math serves me correctly, from the below from "hundredpercentgambling.com,"
then the standard deviation for my small sample is 19.9. And, with 302 hands, I believe I should have won only about 148 units, not 179, correct?
Again, I am NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT (now you know why my nickname is Overkill) using a progression. So you guys and girls (are there any ladies out there, or is this forum 92% male?) better be nice to me because I might (after I get a bankroll of more than $15!!!) enlist the help of one or two of you if and when I decide to carefully implement this legal strategy without getting my arms broken in a casino.
I was fortunate enough to find a copy of a sample of 50,000 manually dealt hands, and in a few weeks I should have the results of applying my system to that small sample. If that is successful, I plan to hire an off-duty professional dealer to come to my home and deal me 100,000 or so hands and, while disguising my strategy, see if it continues to win.
I got the idea for this system about 10 years ago and have tweaked it to its current state just recently. I understand if you think I am close-minded or wrong - maybe I am. But maybe I'm not..............
Outside of using a simulator (which cannot be used for my strategy), after what point would you experts conclude that someone has a winning strategy? 100 million manually dealt hands? 1 billion manually dealt hands?
-Overkill
Courtesy "hundredpercentgambling.com":
Volatility in blackjack
Blackjack, like all gambling games, is subject to the ups and downs of Dame Fortune; fortunately, there is a simple statistical formula we can use to measure it, using "standard deviation".
Standard deviation in blackjack is calculated as follows:
� Take your total initial hands played
� Find the square root
� Multiply the square root by 1.15.
Here�s an example, using 200 initial hands:
(sq.rt.200 = 14.14) � 1.15 = 16.26
The standard deviation of 200 hands is therefore 16.26.
Your results will fall within one standard deviation approximately 68% of the time; within two, 95%, and within three, 99.7% of the time - which covers almost all eventualities.
Playing a typical multi-deck blackjack game with an expectation of −0.5%, you will on average lose one unit for every 200 played. Supposing you end up losing 35 units out of 200 hands played - how probable / improbable is that?
The difference between your expected loss (1) and your actual loss (35) is 34.
34 � 16.26 (one standard deviation) = 2.09.
Your 35-unit loss is therefore a fraction in excess of two standard deviations; we know that results fall within this figure 95%s of the time, and therefore outside it, 5% of the time.
As such, a 35-unit loss out of 200 initial hands will occur on approximately one occasion in twenty.
