Math Question

Please assume that if my first card for a six deck game is a 10, I have (very roughly) a 25% advantage.

And we all know that we can correctly predict a ten 4/13 (~30.8%) times. But what if I can correctly predict a ten 14/37 (37.8%) times?

So, what is my advantage when I predict a 10 will be the next card? In the above example, is it .25 x .378?

Or, perhaps it is .25 x (.378 x .070), where .070 represents .378 - .308.?

Or, is my advantage some other #?