Why wont this work

okay thanks everyone for your responses. i see the light. so everybody agrees that flat betting and this progression have the same ev. is it better to use the progression or flat betting. they both lose the same amount of money in the long run but with the progression u have a chance for a big win with minimal loss. before the negativity starts im not a card counter because its not a viable option. im leaving for vegas in 10 days jus wanna know which would be bettor to flat bet or progress.

I said the formula for figuring your loss was adding up all your bets you made in a certain amount of time (I gave a simple 11 bets as an example in my last post) divide by the number of bets then multiply that total by your house percentage. Look at my example in the previous post, they are simple numbers so you can get the reason for it easily. These bets that I list do not mean any system in particular, all systems will fit into this formula including yours.

Now if you don't believe us, or are still incredulous about it, we have given our PROOF. Now its up to you to show your proof of why your system works. You can give a optomistic example, but thats not proof.

Here's a different, easier progression for you to try:

Watch all the aces and fives. Keep 1 number in your head. Start with zero. For each ace you see, subtract one. For each five you see, add one.

If the count is negative -- that is, if you've seen more aces than fives -- the progression is:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

If the count is positive -- that is, if you've seen more fives than aces -- the progression is:

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Try to play the smallest number of decks you can, but don't play any table unless blackjack pays 3 to 2 (NO 6 to 5!).

This progression system will have better EV than either flat betting or your progression system.

did u guys look at my progression. the only way you lose is if u lose 50 in a row which is what it would be with my 2 unit exmample. how likely would it be to lose 50 in a row. its just as likely as winning 50 in a row.

You are not actually as likely to win 50 in a row as lose 50 in a row. Discounting pushes, we win only about 47.5% of hands playing basic strategy. Much of the difference is made up in doubles and splits and blackjacks.

To answer your question, the unsatisfying answer is that, yes, some of us at least did look at your progression, but really we don't need to. That is not down to laziness or arrogance. It is just an impossible task. There a limitless number of progressions. Someone, somewhere comes up with a new one every day. We would never be able to explain why all of them don't work individually. It would take an infinite amount of time.

You must accept that a progression system fails because it is a progression system. They are based on a fundamental mathematical flaw. No matter how beautiful or well-designed the house you build, it is going to fall down if you build it on sand.

It is good to think creatively and challenge received wisdom. However, progressions are just a complete dead-end.

Btw Many professional gamblers started out with ideas which don't work. I did. I think Bootlegger tried progressions out like you did. So, don't take this as an insult or a blow to your ego. By coming here and asking your questions about it rather than blowing your money in a casino, you have proved yourself smarter than most. But, please heed the advice.

The only way you would lose the same amount of money with a progression is if your average bet with the progression is the same as your flat bet. That is usually not the case, since progressions involve an increase in bets as you work through the progression. If the progression makes your average bet higher, you will lose more than you will by flat-betting.

You could also run into a problem earning the comps appropriate to your level of play, and comps is the only way a flat-betting basic strategy player can break even or perhaps even come out ahead with the house. The problem with the progression is that the pit will see your lowest bet when you first sit down at the table. Unless your bet rises to the point that will bring a "checks play" call, it is likely, especially with the Dahl progression, that this lowest bet is the one the pit crew will see most often, and that is where your average bet will get pegged, which means you will not be earning what you should in comps.

When the pitboss is looking and for the first 5 minutes of each session bet 3x your normal bet. When the pitboss goes away bet 1x your normal bet. Make a profit by abusing the casino comp system and consider it a winning session when your actual averge bet is a fraction of your credited average bet on the rating slip. If you're a high stakes player rathole chips that won't be noticed and attempt, secretly, to manufacture a big loss (5K to 10K as a minimum). Then hit up a casino host for airfare...they often give up to 5% of your actual loss in airfare if your theoretical doesn't cover it (or some combination thereof).

Although I spoke to flat-betting above, I agree with BP's advice. Bump up your bet when there is something to gain, i.e., comps in the case of a basic strategy non-counting, non AP style of play, and not because you won or lost your last bet.

If you are putting away black or purple chips, and in some cases even green chips, the pit will know where the money is. They count the rack to see where you are, not your stack. If there are chips missing from the game the dealer will sometimes be asked if he knows who they went to. Then you will be credited with a WHOLE rack of chips, in turn, manufacturing a WIN, and if you're a regular patron then even when you don't stash chips away the floor will sometimes know that you do it and write it down that you did.

1. Rathole only when another player comes into the table or leaves the table with chips
2. Rathole only green chips or low denomiaton chips unless the opportunity to rathole black or higher presents itself (see #1)
3. Learn some slight of hand to get chips from the table to your palm to your pockets.
4. Rathole a little when you go to the bathroom or leave the table on a wongout.
5. Never rathole when playing heads up.
6. Rathole when losing to magnify losses as well as winning to reduce wins.
7. Rathole at least one max bet per hour.

bp

Numbers 1 and 5 are ok....the rest are generally moot points. Ratholing red chips does you no good. You don't recieve comps based on wins or losses and if you should manage to get any more than a hundred in red off the game, someone will notice. Red chips are noticed because the floor is constantly looking for fills and it won't take long before they notice that red is disappearing.

Again, the dealer, in general, just knows how much you have and can easily tell if you've been stashing them away. The floor will notice because they go by the chips in the rack and not in your pile.

I would maximize your stash from a game to not exceed any more than 10 chips in one session from one table. Floors get annoyed when chips don't get colored up. Not because they are interested in your take, but because they have to do more fills. Getting the floor annoyed at you will reduce your average bet and get you less comps, which is the exact opposite of the result you want from doing this.

1. rat-holing cross dealer changes is not difficult.

2. most don't play "tombstone mode" but move around. This makes it far more difficult to figure out "where has the red gone?"

3. I always color up, but many dealers are cooperative in that they pay off using the min number of chips, rather than exact stack matches, which makes it easy for a larger-denomimation chip (black for me, sometimes green, since I typically spread from $5 to whatever is needed for the specific game) to disappear into thin air. And no, I don't neatly stack my chips so that the black or green chips stand out like sore thumbs...

1. You DO get comps based on your losses at many places. Mandalay Bay, for example, will bonus you a percentage of your current trip loss, ask a host, in comp dollars good on the next trip. You also get airfare (a hard comp)at most places based on either your theoretical loss or on a percentage of your actual loss...which is easy enough to manipulate if you try.

2. Red chips disappear all the time into the dealers toke box or to the waitresses. Regular fills of red chips raises no flags...I don't rathole them much because they make my pants want to fall off. Green and a few blacks every now and then are easy enough to rathole. I've actually ratholed purple chips at certain casinos with zero problems. (high limit casino in CT with lots of Asian players jumping in and out with stacks of purple).

is to keep your cumulative win down to a manageable level. Sometimes flux just doesn't allow it...you either win big at some casinos or lose big at other casinos....but at a chunky number you win just about your expectation and overtime at these, ratholing, willmake you look like just another sucker.

While red chips fills are not really a problem, chip stashing could hurt you if you're a regular at a certain place. How? you may ask. Its not so much ratholing a few chips here and there, but its having the repution of doing it all the time. Its really not hard at all to know whose pockets the chips are going into, even red ones. Why would that hurt you if the floor knows you for doing it? The floor is absolutely in control of your average bet, which is what is determined when the computer gives you the comp points. You'll get many floors who may be annoyed with your play, ratholing, attitude, non-tippage, or whatever the reason. Maybe they're a duel rate and just didn't like a player blowing smoke at them, as a dealer. Whatever the reason, your bet rating can be severly shaved from what it actually is or the time you were there may be reduced slightly as well. I've seen more than a few times where they player got into an argument with the floor and the rating slip go right in the garbage.

Im getting off subject here a little. My main point is that stashing chips is fine, but no one is going to tell you when you've been marked. It's best to do it at a place where you only frequent a couple times a year, keep it to a bare minimum at your regular joints.

there is little benefit in doing it at all.

Floors get annoyed when chips don't get colored up. Not because they are interested in your take, but because they have to do more fills.
What is wrong with them doing their job?
This is what bothers me about their attitude & not wanting to do their job!
Should I also not do my job because someone makes it more time consuming?
Having more than one thing to do at a job requires time management skills.
Just do the job & stop b----ing about it.
Have some pride in your work!

Rat-holing (I have done this for a few years) is done to hide winnings, or even to increase losses. Why would one want to do that at a place they are not going to be remembered, probably via a player's card or because they frequent the place?

Somehow I apparently miss the whole idea behind rat-holing, if I believe Richard's assessment... When I go to a casino I won't be back at for a long time, if ever, I just go in, play, spread perfectly by the count, and don't worry about anything like getting flagged as a big winner or anything else. Because I won't be back. So who cares whether they think I'm a winner or not, I will be playing without a player's card since I probably have not been there before...

You can not really hide a mega win by ratholing. So you rathole in a place where you frequent, you do it when you are up or down. You rathole more than your EV, so your wins are smaller, your losses are larger and when they look at your lifetime record, you are a looser.

Not too many people really have pride in their jobs when dealing with the general public. As far as floors are concerned, I would be annoyed too when someone walks away with 2 stacks of a color, especially after being politely asked to color up. What, you sit at a table for hours on end and you can't 10 seconds to color up. It doesn't take much to do a fill, but now that guy is going to go to another table already jam packed with chips.

Anyway, this is a conversation about consistantly ratholing chips and being marked as a high maintenance player (i.e. a dick).

ratholing it appears. For example, when I play DD, at the betting level I use 95%+ of the time, my hourly EV is around $25.00. That means I tuck away one green chip per hour if I am lucky. And I don't sit at the table "for hours" for obvious reasons. On the rarer occasions where I bet green, I've tucked away a couple of black chips in an hour also, and an hour is the limit of my stay at one table/pit.

I could see this as a problem if someone is walking away with 25 pounds worth of chips, but I've never seen that happen. If your unit is black, your EV will probably be around $200 (2 chips) per hour. Rat-holing that EV is not going to cause a fill, and if done right, is not going to be noticed. Doing it at the dealer change is easy enough...