Want some blackjack math information please

Hi All. Happy New year to all!! Its my first post here. I am new to card counting. I have played blackjack in casinos before but stopped in 2017 due to travel and other priority works. I have taken time to learn card counting, practicing hi-lo, basic strategy and deviations (illustrious 18). By no means i am going to play blackjack as a profession. I have a full time job, and going to play blackjack for fun and possible as side income. I dont have defined bank roll at this moment but i am going to take around $1000 for my blackjack trip every weekend. I can replenish this trip bankroll. I have a casino 1 hr away and offer good DD and six deck. I am more interested in DD because it has around 60% or more as penetration and more exciting to me. 6 deck has only around 70% and rarely 80%. Rules for DD are S17, double on any 2 cards, bj pays 3:2, resplit to 4, can double after split. House edge comes around 0.25532%. I am playing all the negative counts since it has no mid shoe entry. I am planning for the below 1-8 betting ramp

TC <= 1      $10
TC = 2        $20
TC=3          $40
TC=4          $60
TC>=5        $80

Planning to play 10 hrs every trip (weekend). Can someone please tell me how to calculate my EV, average bet, standard deviation, win rate, N0 and any other important bj math I am missing here? I would really appreciate your inputs and help here. 

You need simulation software to answer questions such as these.  As this is your first post here, I'll give you a present  :-)

EV is 1.19% or $21.30 per hour (100 hands played).  Average bet is $17.80.  Standard deviation is $3 per hand or $30 per hour.  But SCORE is, roughly, $50, which means N0 would be 20,000 if you were betting optimally, which you aren't (you need higher bankroll to justify these bets).

The trip ROR &1,000 bank, (10 hours of play) is nearly 23%, which, in my view, is too high.  In short, you need to take more money with you, or you will tap out nearly one trip in four.

Write back with more questions.

Don

I think that standard deviation is $300 per hour.
And we could add that simply doubling the bank drops the Trip RoR to 2%

Thanks so much for the input. I really appreciate your time for the reply. Is there a way to calculate these in excel with formulas, without buying any simulation software? If my betting is not optimal, can you please suggest the optimal betting ramp and the BR to support it for a trip? Do i need to take the traditional 100x big bets ($8k in my case) for my trip? As i said, i can refill my trip BR but feel 23% ROR is too high. Thanks again for the inputs. 

Sorry for the typos.  Standard deviation per HAND is $30 and per hour (100 hands) is $300.  Careless of me.  But I know what happened, so I plead guilty with an explanation.  I was quoting the software's output of UNITS, each of which is $10.

Don

Short answer:  no.  You need simulation software.  Do you have BJA3?  The chapter 10 charts would surely help.

No, you certainly don't need $8,000 for a 10-hour trip.  If you want to keep those stakes and ramp, and hold trip ROR to, say, 10%, you would need to take about $1,400.  And, as Philippe mentioned above, if you bring $2,000, trip ROR is reduced all the way to 2%, which is certainly more than acceptable.

As an aside, you should be raising your bet at +1 and not waiting +2.

Don

Thanks for your reply. As of now, I have not read any BJ book,  just browsing online forums. Is the below ramp is acceptable? 

TC.   $
<0.    10
1.      15
2.      25
3.      40
4.      60
>5.    80


thanks Don and Philippe for your inputs. 

I think that CVCX is worth its price.
Iook at next picture and you will see optimal betting ramp and much more.
Every cell in white can be changed.
More important, you can simulate your own play. For instance Wonging Out (as Wongin In is impossible)

Thanks so much Phillipe. This really helps me a lot. 

I believe Wong's Professional Blackjack suggested 50xBigBet for a weekend trip bankroll ($4,000 in your example). But, you aren't playing many hours, so use the $2,000.

Buy some books! And software.

blick wrote:

"Planning to play 10 hrs every trip (weekend). Can someone please tell me how to calculate my EV, average bet, standard deviation, win rate, N0 and any other important bj math I am missing here? I would really appreciate your inputs and help here."

blick, the number of hands played per hour has a big impact on win/loss EV percentages. Playing only weekends on small tables chances are great that you are playing at crowded tables, which you will learn is an EV killer. Just so you understand the number of hands that you are getting in 10 hours of play on weekends, other players are equaling "at off hours" in anywhere from 2.5 to 3 hours heads up, or in 3.5 to 4 hours with one or two other people at the table, dealer, and player dependent.

You mentioned you have not read any books yet. Well, I will mention two, the first book Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong, this book is dated but is a classic that more than stands up to the test of time. The second book is to be read after reading the first book, BLACKJACK ATTACK Playing the Pros' Way 3rd Edition by Don Schlesinger. Frankly, this book is the best book for anyone considering playing the game of blackjack.The two books go together like peanut butter and jelly. As a bonus both books heavily cover the Hi Low count, the second book does not teach you the Hi low count but is loaded with statistics on the Hi Low count, especially in chapter 10. I like your choice of picking the Hi Low count, I have been using it successfully for over 3 decades.