Vegas Resort BJ and Gold Nugget

Excuse my rambling firstly.
A few questions for the bj soldiers.
After this post I will buy a current BJ news through bj21.com
I have been playing the same basic strategy and betting strategy for perhaps 12 years. Because I have a lot of respect for what I don't know, I am very respectful of Good Luck and Bad. It seems all the computer input and factual odds with regards to the game/job of bj, will never be able to input the other side of this good luck and bad luck input. What causes good luck and bad luck, would be nice to figure, as a variable, to bj success.

OK my basic strategy says hit my 12 against dealers 2 and 3
a/2 a/3 double against dealers 5 and 6
a/4 a/5 double against 4 5 and 6
a/6 dubl against 3 4 5 and 6
a/7 stand 2 dubl on 3 4 5 6 stand 7 8 hit 9 10 a
9 s dubl against 3 4 5 6 7

I just finished reading Kevin Blackwood Play BJ Like The Pros
his Basic Strategy looks different. I don't want to change my basic strategy because it feels like I'll be starting a new lifetime shoe with my odds. I have some busts on those hits my 12 against dealer 2 and 3 that need to change around.
When I play I don't care about how others play their cards because I am on the best odds for 10 million hands delt.
My betting strategy has been to leave the shoe if i lose 3 in a row. I need a busy weekend with many tables open. I noticed after the MIT exposure that new rules appeared. Such as there is a low maximum bet if you join after the shoe is started. Originally this was posted at the tables, but at Golden Nugget I ran into it by my unit bet getting bigger. That irked me.
After readin Mr Blackwoods book I will give some site to the running count.
I think that as long as their is an end to the shoe, a count is a good thing.
What happened to the history of mssgs. on this site? Only 20 days.
Perhaps I must now become a greenchipper paid member.
I also have seen much in my days.
If anyone could expand on any of my thoughts please do.
Correct me anywhere and guide me.
Thanks
Peace
good BJ to you
aces n kings

1) Read and study BJA3 by Don S.
2) Join Green Chip
3) Set your preferences to more days. It is located at the top of the opening page.

Correct BS is not to double 9v7

It is correct basic to hit 12 vs 2, 3. I have Kevin's book and don't remember his basic being incorrect, but I'm on the road right now and can't look it up.

Aside from the 9 vs 7 play that Francis caught, I don't see anything else incorrect here, however if you play any single deck, it is correct to double A8 vs 6 and 8 vs 6 as part of basic strategy, likewise for any h17 game it is correct basic strategy to double 11 vs Ace.

Thank you very much for those responses. I will be playing this weeek in Vegas and I will heed all your advice.
Any more comments will be appreciated also.
Thanks.
Peace.

"It is correct basic to hit 12 vs 2, 3. I have Kevin's book and don't remember his basic being incorrect, but I'm on the road right now and can't look it up. "

my mistake Kevin has it correct
it's the 9 vs 7 I will change
thnx again

Will do
thnx
peace

You should be nowhere near a live blackjack table with real money unless your goal is to decimate your finances. Step 1 is to research a solid bibliography of blackjack books based on sound math by authors such as Schlesinger, Wong, Snyder, Carlson, Wattenberger, Revere, Uston, etc. Step 2 is to invest substantial study and practice time and decide if you have both the intelligence, discipline and nerves to take on the modern casinos. Your game does not improve by hours or experience at the table when you never learned to play correctly in the first place. Right now it is abundantly obvious by your statements that you are negative EV. If you are happy with that, fine. But let's not mince words or pretend you are a positive EV advantage player.

I add a unit every win and 2 units on a dubl win
i max at 10 units then stay there
go to minimum on a loss
sometimes i have wanted to lose a hand to leave table up in chips
rather than 2 losses 1 win episodes
i haven't counted cards before, this must where your skepticism arrives
thnx for the comments
peace
i truly haven't had bad experience

There's some skepticism because it sounds like you believe you've been playing a winning game for a dozen years with basic strategy, a betting progression and stop loss criteria. A 6D, h17, ls,RSA game at the Golden Nugget still has a house advantage of 0.46 for a basic strategy player, and your betting progression/schedule doesn't affect that. Eventually it will grind you out. It's good to hear you haven't had a bad experience. If you start developing counting skills and learn what it takes to truly get a player advantage, you'll see Blackjack in a whole new light (and slap yourself for not starting earlier). :-)

I understand what you are saying..thnx..you are making it clear. The guy that wrote the book I read The Ultimate BJ book advised in there not to count. I will add counting. In Blackwoods book i like the idea of looking at cards in groups for counts such as 2 cards together summed and pairs and such.
I have been fortunate to have often, stopped play on the positive wave of wins and losses.. sometimes by things out of control , like taking a slap at the table.
It is all about units, that's for sure. One unit to 1 man is another unit to another. Up and down cycles when up, pull out.
I wish I could put good and bad luck into a sim..Maybe 1 day
thnx

You should learn and master BS cold, then learn a simple count. I recommend KO -Knockout Blackjack. It's all you need to get the money. After that, practice and drill until its second nature to you. Then build a bankroll, then try it out in a casino.

Luck (aka variance) can and should be simmed, or more accurately, is one output of a sim.

For example, I may have an EV of $100 per hour and a standard deviation of $1,000 per hour. As a result, I know that 2/3 of the time, my actual result for one hour's play will somewhere between a loss of $900 and a win of $1,100. 95% of the time, my actual results for that hour will be somewhere between a loss of $1,900 and a win of $2,100, and 99+% of the time the actuals will be between a loss of $2,900 and a win of $3,100.

You should definitely know the standard deviation for any game you play, as this is necessary in order to calc ROR, trip bankroll requirements, etc. You should also look at the 99+% (3 std dev) negative result for your expected trip length and make sure you are fully capable of dealing with a loss of that amount before you set foot in the casino.

I don't want to overload you but the following books are a must and should be read and re-read several times from cover to cover. Some of these books also work well as road reference pieces...you should never be on the road without Wong's Book.

1. Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong It's the Bible for Professional Card Counters...there is even a version for Kindle now if you're into such things.

2. Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger...covers a multitude of topics...basically everything.

After these two essential books you can look in the Bibilography of each for lists of other books you can buy. There are a lot of BJ misconceptions that accumulate in peoples head and the more you read and study the more this preconceived crap will be purged from your brain.

I'd put Grosjean's book in there as well, but it's either unavailable or unobtainable.

I will put my mind to all this.
Variance. I read you.
The books will be greaat.
I can honestly say that I have made ten unit bets succesively on occasion and they have split open to four hands.( Must be the same gratification when you are a EV player.) This recquires wins in a row including increasing unit bets by 2 each double win.
Is there any statistical analyzing of winning hands in a row? How often winning hands occur successively? Winning hands must be the result of + counts.
I slap myself for not having mastered counting yet.
I totally understand how you ev players spread your bets with running true counts and the factors applied for the sums.
I must say this board has gotten way advanced since ten years ago.
Thanks for all your thoughts.
Peace.
Blackjacks

Ok. You're all right.
my experience is only about 6 days each year of 12 years, with avg 8 hrs each day. 1ce i played 18 hrs of 24. I only play in Vegas on these trips 1ce or twice a year
i'm planning on beginning to count
i drew down pretty hard only to return half of my bankroll.i am becoming hesitant to play with just basic s and betting s, i may have lost confidence now that i am seeing the necessity of counting and applying it to bets.
i did not see the lower max bet rule after joining when the shoe has already started. i asked about it and the dealers played dumb like they never had the rule before.
why does the house put dealers out that are as slow as molasses?
why do they not serve alcohol as fast?
things are changing.