Tunica trip report/advice

I went to Tunica for a short 6 hour trip carrying a small session bankroll of $800. After playing about 4+ hours of 6 deck, $10 minimum, spreading just 1-4 (or $40 max), I lost about $140. In my last hour or so, I plunged into 2 deck BJ, playing $25 minimum, 60% pen, spreading 1-4 (mostly 1-3), went up and down, initially lost $400 and then won $600 to end up winning $200.

I guess if I am only willing to spread 1-4, 2 deck BJ is better, correct?

My question, if I have a session bankroll of $1000, play 2 deck, $25 min BJ, spreading 1-4, what are reasonable expectations for a 6 hour trip?

I guess if I am only willing to spread 1-4, 2 deck BJ is better, correct?

Better to not play at all, unless you can wong.

My question, if I have a session bankroll of $1000, play 2 deck, $25 min BJ, spreading 1-4, what are reasonable expectations for a 6 hour trip?

With such a minute "bankroll," you have a good chance of zero if you tap out, which is likely. Mr. Schlesinger will probably give you the exact chance of that happening.

I second Roontz's thoughts above. There are a couple problems here:

1. If you are playing with a $100 max bet, then you need a total BR of approx $10K at a minimum, or you will face near certain bust, or an ending BR of $0. It is a matter of when, not if.

2. A 1-4 spread will not beat a DD game and DEFINITELY won't even come close to beating a 6D game. In other words, if you are spreading 1-4, then you are playing at a negative expectation. Regardless of your BR, you will go broke with absolute certainty if you are playing with a negative expectation.

Unless you can overcome #1 and #2 above, you will go broke. It may not happen on your next 6 hour trip, but it WILL happen.

With your BR, you can't play DD unless you can find a game with good rules, good penetration, and a $5 min. They have these games in some places, but they aren't in Tunica. The bad news is thata you won't make much money at these games, in absolute dollars, so unless you can get a free trip, you probably won't be able to cover expenses, meaning, again, that you will lose all your money.

As for 6D, the ONLY way that you can realistically play 6D with a $3K bankroll is if you wong. That means that you stand where you can see the table and start counting after a fresh shuffle. Once the TC is greater than +2, bet $25. As soon as the TC drops below +2, stop betting. Take a phone call and step back from the table for a few hands. If the count still is less than +2, grab your chips, and take a walk. Come back and watch another table after the dealer shuffles.

Playing this way is not fun. It's boring, frustrating and a fair amount of work. If you disregard my advice and instead play to have fun, then you will go bust. If you are OK with that, then go right ahead. Have fun. It's what 99% of people do when they go to casinos. It won't make you a bad person, and you will have alot of company.

I may have confused you guys. I probably have $15K as bankroll but in one session/one day, I do not want to lose more than $1k. Tunica is about 3 hours away, so I can get there by 10:00 a.m. quit by 4:00 p.m. and head home. This reduces the overhead to just gas and a snack for lunch. If I lose 1K in one hour, I quit or I keep playing for 5-6 hours.

I had read that a 2 deck game can be beaten using 1-4 spread. I wonder if Don will chip in and indicate if that is possible. In Tunica, there is a cut line and its about 60-65% pen. and the dealer deals till the cut card comes out. All other rules are standard rules I guess (no surrender, H17 etc.).

With a session bankroll of $1000, betting $25 to $100 on a DD game (H17, DAS, 60% penetration) and using the Wong High-Low with 16 indices, here are my simulation results for 6 hours of play:

Player advantage: .524%
Expected return: $129 ($21.46/hour)
ROR: 87.4%

Would doubling the Bankroll lessen the risk of ruin? Also, where can I get the 16 indices?

If your BR is $15K, then you have a ton of additional options.

Bankroll is defined as the amount of money that you are willing to lose. If you have a $15K bankroll, then you are willing to lose $15K. If you don't want to lose more than $1K in a 6 hour trip, then you have a much smaller effective bankroll.

First off, you need to decide what amount you are actually willing to lose at this game. That amount is your bankroll. Abandon the concept of session loss limits (or win limits for that matter). The only thing they limit is your potential to make money.

Second, you need to decide on your risk tolerance (just like when you are deciding on investments for your 401(K), etc. Ask yourself whether you are willing to have a 5% chance that you will go broke if you do everything perfectly. If your honest answer is "yes", then use a 1% ROR for calculating your bet sizing and ramps (because you won't do everything perfectly).

If you decide that you are in fact willing to lose $15K (and you have $15K available), then do the following before you play another hand of blackjack:

1. Buy and read Blackjack Attack, 3rd edition.

2. Join Green Chip and read every post in the archives.

3. Buy the Qfit software, or at least BJRM

4. Subscribe to CBJN.

Once you have done those things, you are ready to start playing. If you are 3 hours from Tunica, you may have much better options available, but it really depends on which direction you are talking about. Are you North, South, East, or West of Tunica? Don't answer that. Just get CBJN and see for yourself.

Regardless, playing a 1-4 spread at a mediocre DD game is not your best plan, if you want to maximize your earnings. If you are just wanting to get some experience, that is fine, but I would recommend a $5 - $20 spread instead if that is the case.

With a true $15K bankroll, you can afford to take some inexpensive trips to places with really good games. You should do so.

You have gotten a lot of advice the past few weeks. How much reading have you done? Bootleggers 200 Proof Blackjack is a great resource for ramping advice. BJ21.com/green Chip will help you as well. Professional Blackjack is a must and you've been directed to BJA3.

This is the first time I've read that you are that close to your destination. There may be a lot of opportunities there for a semi-local. You have the liberty of taking your time and checking a lot of tables on multiple shifts. Surely, you can jot down the names/times etc... of a few dealers whom you can re-visit. You also have the time to Wong more and ramp less. You should be eating free after a visit or two.

However, you should not ask another question on this or any other site until you tell us about your gambling library. I'm being facetious, but certainly stay away from casinos until you have done more studying.

Posting here is not studying. It's verification and clarification. This is also the first time you told us your BR is 15k. You were telling us 3K. Big difference!

If you have a true BR of $15K, you should not limit yourself to a $1,000 loss. You should fire away at whatever level your studying reveals is sensible. I back-counted a $25 min table some time ago and lost about $500 in 10 minutes. I think I ramped 1 to 2. I don't recall winning a hand. Maybe one and a push. Why would you drive 6 hours and spend additional time to play while limiting yourself to $1,000. Stay a night at least - once you have it comped.

etc... etc... Read the other posts and get some books!

Doubling your session bankroll of $1000 to $2000 will decrease your risk of ruin from 87.4% to 76.4%.

The sixteen indices are the "Illustrious 18" indices from Blackjack Attack by Don S. with the tens split indices omitted. The sixteen matrix numbers are 16 v 10, 16 v 9, 15 v 10, 13 v 2, 13 v 3, 12 v 2, 12 v 3, 12 v 4, 12 v 5, 12 v 6, 10 v A, 10 v 10, 11 v A, 9 v 2,
9 v 7 and the insurance index. Use the appropriate matrix numbers from S. Wong's Professional Blackjack.

By the way, the risk of ruin figure for your game is not acceptable for any serious card counter.

and accept that your trip bankroll may get wiped out in the first hour if you bring only 1K. (for the OP)

1-4 is not good for wonging h17 eight deckers at the HS, 1-10 for those would be more like it.

1-4 is weak for an h17 double deck game unless it's dealt near to the bottom, again 1-6 is the minimum required and only because the HS Tunica allows RSA which helps the SCORE a bit. 1-8 would be better.

1-4 would be excellent for green chipping the single deck game there though. $25-$100 if you can get the right number of rounds to players.

If you truly have a $15K BR (meaning that you are willing to lose all $15K), then you really need to bring more than $1K on a trip. If you have a max bet of $100, then it is possible to lose $800 on one hand (split to the maximum of 4 hands and double on each).

Sure that is highly unlikely, but it will happen to you sooner or later. You never want to be in a situation where you have to walk away from a positive shoe because you run out of money. What happens if you lose a mere 5 max bets on the first DD shoe? You have $500 left. If you start playing a new shoe, there is a decent chance that you will tap out before you get through it.

Read BJA if you haven't already. Get some decent software (BJRM is only $75 and will get the job done, Qfit is more expensive and is better). Then think long and hard about how much you are willing to lose, and your level of risk tolerance for potentially losing that money.

There are a couple things people commonly do wrong when planning a bet ramp. I would recommend that you think about these carefully.

1. The software will help you calculate your expected win rate, standard deviation, and ROR. Make sure you understand the underlying assumptions behind these calculations. BJRM in particular assumes that you make no errors, and that you bet exactly accordig to the schedule that you entered. If you are planning to use some cover betting, etc., then you will need to modify the bet schedule accordingly. You should also expect your actual results to be worse than shown, in all respects, because you will make playing errors.

2. If you cover expenses from your BR, then you will have a lower win rate, and a higher ROR than calculated. Another reason to be conservative when calculating your approach. Also, a good reason to minimize expenses. For starters, don't tip dealers. Ever. No matter what.

3. The calculated ROR assumes that you will reinvest all winnings in your BR. If you plan to withdraw some amount of your winnings, then you will have a much higher ROR. This includes using winnings to pay for trip expenses, as noted above. At the extreme, if you planned to always withdraw and spend any net winnings over your starting BR, then you would eventually go broke with near certainty. You will go on extended losing streaks. You need those "excess" winnings to stay in your BR as insurance against the inevitable prolonged downswing. This is another reason why you can't toss the dealer a green chip after winning $1,000, for example. Believe it or not, but you need that $25 to stay in your BR.

Your risk of ruin using a bankroll of $15K from from same simulation is 13.3%.