THIS SUCKS

Do you use strictly basic strategy, or do you change some decisions based on the count?

Hardly a scientific analysis, but I plugged your game in here
http://www.cardcounter.com/applets/BJ2.3/Blackjack_Applet.html
and the bankroll is swinging all over the place - from +$30K to -$30K.

I'm not an expert on the subject of betting efficiency, but from the books and articles I've read on the subject, it does look like you're overbetting for the advantageous counts, especially in going to 2x100 at only TC+3. You're putting too much hope in the possibility of winning at the plus counts. Hopefully someone else can confirm this.

Derek

I agree with what you said. Newbie22 should, if possible, GET AWAY from a 6 deck game because the swings can knock you right out. Go out of your way to play a double deck game, even if you have to travel to a place which offers this game. People think because they "should" make a few cents a hand that this is some kind of guaranteed income, which it is not. Large swings are possible. But if he has no choice and MUST play 6 decks, I recommend:
Do NOT ramp up from a minimum bet until AT LEAST TC +1.5 or 2. At TC +1 you don't have enough juice to justify a larger wager. For maximum bets, I would even go higher than TC +3. You won't get these counts very often and you could "get bored" waiting for them, but if you are the type to get bored waiting around for an opportunity then maybe you're in the wrong game.

Playing 2 boxes of 100 is not the same as playing 2 rounds of 100 bet,I hope some of the math experts explain to you way,you should buy SBA or BCA and run simulations so you can see for yourself.
You are puting too much money on this project stert small and when e shure you are a winning player go for it.

I didn't sim. you specific game but did use some of the pre-packaged sims in BJRM to get some numbers that may help.

4.5/6 S17 DAS nLS
HiLo with I18 and Fab4
4 players
$20,000 bankroll

The betting scheme below is that which maximizes DI. The ROR is then 13.5%. The spread in each case was 1-20. The numbers are also for play-all. Since you've been leaving at TC < -1, the DI for you game will be a little better.

TC 1 hand 2 hands

<=0 $15 $10
1 $56 $45
2 $141 $110
3 $212 $165
4 $296 $204

DI 5.11 6.16

The SD/100 for the 2 hands case is $1231.

Using the trip calculator for the 2 hands case indicates for 50 hours and 75 hands per hour your result will fall between -$4696 and +$10,382 68% of the time.

Risk is relative, but I would say that your current style has been a little aggressive (read relatively higher risk) and you've had a run of bad luck. You might consider dropping your bets in positive counts (limited in negative counts by table minimums) to 1/2 or 1/4 of what they are currently. Also, when you play two hands you might consider bets on each hand that are closer to 73% of your bet on one hand.

By way of the encouragement that you wanted, I personally don't think you've done that badly. The cards haven't been with you, but that will always happen off and on and at least here you might benefit by looking closer your game plan than you would have if you had experienced a run of good luck. I know it's not much of a consolation.

Anyone care to share some bad losing streak stories? I need to gain some confidence in this thing, cause right now I have none.

I've had several consecutive streaks like this lasting over a year.
You may need to check your risk tolerance level. You will experience worse losing periods than this.
Although I toughed out several losing streaks like the one you describe in the end I came to the conclusion that it would be better to ameliorate the effects of the negative swings by diversifying into areas of advantage play with lower variance. You may consider this as an option-learn how to hustle comps, find promotions, shuffle-track perhaps or learn to play tight at low stakes poker.

At the beggining of your post you said: Small bet $10, big bet $100

At the end of your post you said: Count gets to +3, I sigh and chuck down 2xblackchip

So, you bet twice max at a count that didn't even justify a max bet, then complain about the result. This sounds like a huge overbet, chasing your losses, and should be a good lesson.

Big losses suck, but they are never as big when you stay within your limits as they can get when you start chasing.

Big lesson cost big bucks.

--Mayor

You've received some excellent responses. One statement you made that hasn't been addressed is your assumption that you have a 4% advantage at your max bet level of +4 true. Assuming hi-lo is your count, your advantage at this true count is probably only somewhat above 1 1/2%. Plus one is barely over break even and each true count integer added thereafter adds just a shade over 1/2% advantage. Your spread, as indicated by the sim work of others, is probably a winning one, though not necessarily an optimal one.

At least your bankroll is a replenishable one as you've implied that you've lost the equivalent of a months wages. I'm sure there are a few in Vegas who are trying to make a living at this with a $20,000 bankroll. Yikes! I don't think I'd even consider trying to make a full time go of this game with less than $140,000 (not that you're thinking of going full time or anything).

I think many on these boards have a misconception that anything less than a 1-12 spread is a losing spread for a 6D game. Actually, even is one is playing a marginal 6D S17 4/6 pen game, one could using a 1-4 spread, play all, and still have a slightly (less than 1/10th of a unit per 100) winning EV. There are those who will play such a break even spread when playing for room comps and such.

O.K., so I'm not playing anymore, but that doesn't mean that I can't post once in awhile, now does it?

Keep the faith,
Telescopic