THIS SUCKS

Oh man, I am not having fun so far at all. After getting my counting skill to an acceptable level, I started playing for real for about last 2 weeks. Redchipping - Small bet $10, big bet $100. First few days : a snoozefest - very balanced decks, TC stayed around 0 most of the time. End of week - I get completely TRASHED in a timespan of about 30 minutes. Sure enough the count was hitting +4, and happy me was chucking thoee little black cylinders... losing every one of them. Lost about $1500 in half an hour - 15xBigBet.

Shrugged it off as part of the game and kept playing for another week. +$100 one day, -$50 another, +$75 another day - pretty boring. Yesterday, I got a complete ROYAL TRASHING. In 3 hours I lost over $4000, thats 40+ x BigBet. All this time I won maybe a couple of bigbets, no more than that. 45-2, thats 4% winning rate, while its supposed to be fucking 51% !! I was fuming. Kept getting 14's, 16's, 13's while the dealer was cleaning my box with blackjacks and 20's the entire time. This is way too freaky, I thought, am I being cheated? Stopped betting and just sat at the table counting and observing. Nope, nothing out of order - the count goes into negative just as often as into positive, no seconds-dealing, no payout mistakes, nothing suspicious at all! New shuffle, I bet again. Count gets to +3, I sigh and chuck down 2xblackchip. I get A,A ; 7,4 - dealer gets 5 - I smile "take that, dirty Sanchez!" I split the aces, double the 11 - got 19,20 and 20. Good. Dealer draws - Jack. Good. Draws another - its a 6. The moment I saw that 6 turning around, I pound my fist on the table so hard that the chips fall over and the coffee of the old gambler next to me spills on the floor. A bouncer jumps next to me and starts saying something very fast - I just turned and slowly walked out.

I am seriously considering giving up all this stuff. One thing is to know that mathematically you are supposed to be winning X number of cents per hand, another thing is to watch yourself giving away in a timespan of a couple of hours more than you earned in a month of hard work AND keep yourself emotionally cool. And I am a redchipper!

Anyone care to share some bad losing streak stories? I need to gain some confidence in this thing, cause right now I have none.

How many decks, what is the pen, the rules?In a bad 6D game spreading 10-100 could be a break even situation.Even in ok game with a 100$ big bet you can lose 10K even more.

1. What system were you using?
2. If you were betting black chips that isn't "redchipping". Maybe you should've started by wonging into positive counts for $10 rather than bumping up to 100 like you did. The results may have been the same but you would've lost a LOT less money and kept your sanity.
3. Just buying a book does not make you a "card counter". Most books on the market are geared to the "lowest common denominator" and are more interested in dumbing down the subject to sell more books than in presenting a truly solid system.

Hi Newbie,

Sorry to hear about the bad streak. I've had similar streaks where I am counting and playing well, but consistently drawing stiffs when I had big bets out (and the dealer, naturally, showing a 10.) For a time I considered changing my name to "14 Machine" as a tribute to my ability to draw that particular total.

Can I give you a suggestion? I always have a firm session maximum and trip maximum for what I can lose. This has nothing to do with what I can afford to lose, it's simply the maximum sum I'm willing to put at risk.

If I'm having bad luck but the table seems good, I will keep playing until I hit my session maximum, at which time I will take a break for a couple hours. (One time I had to stop resplitting 9's against a 4 at a DD game where the TC was +8 or so because I had hit my session max. (As luck would have it, if I had resplit them I would have won 2 and lost 2 instead of winning all 3, but that's beside the point - the point is that I will never never never violate my limit.))

Similarly, I will simply stop playing on a trip if I hit my trip max.

I know that, mathematically, a winning streak is just as likely to start as a losing streak is likely to continue, but if you adopt limits you will never lose big. To put is more mathematically, we are all destined to have some days when we win huge and others when we lose huge. By adhering to strict limits, I can truncate the lower end of the distribution.

Just my own method - use it if you like it, ignore it if you don't.

Good luck

"1. What system were you using? "

Shoe game, about 80% pen, DAS, No Surrender, S17. House advantage about 0.5%

My strategy: Hi-Lo count , bet 1x$10 at low counts, 1x$25 at TC +1, 2x$50 at TC +2, 2x$100 at TC +3, Wong out at TC -1

"2. If you were betting black chips that isn't "redchipping"."

$100 is my biggest bet, $10 is my smallest bet, this is redchipping.

"Maybe you should've started by wonging into positive counts for $10 rather than bumping up to 100 like you did."

While I wss training, I did that - just flatbet $10 at TC +1, once my counting was fast enough, I moved onto a 1-10 bet spread.

"The results may have been the same but you would've lost a LOT less money and kept your sanity."

If I was planning to lose money, I wouldnt be making any bets! I am supposed to have 1% advantage, but so far I am getting totally trashed.

Your max bet is not 100$ but 200$ regardless of the fact that you are playing 2 boxes,the game is pretty good but you are betting way too much for a beginer.And you are not red chip player but a green chip.You can drop 15k in this game in no time.

"Your max bet is not 100$ but 200$ regardless of the fact that you are playing 2 boxes"

But wouldnt betting 2x100 instead of 1x200 reduce the standard deviation since I am playing 2 hands not 1 hand? Correct me if I am wrong, but playing 2x100 is the same as playing 2 rounds of 1x100 ?

"the game is pretty good but you are betting way too much for a beginner. And you are not red chip player but a green chip.You can drop 15k in this game in no time. "

My base bet is $10 (this is redchipping , right?), any lower than that and its just not worth the time. I have a bankroll of $20000 , which I thought would be plenty, but after yesterday's creaming when I lost nearly a quarter of that in a few hours, I am not feeling confident at all. :-(

what others have said above, so that maybe it will sink in faster.

1. You are using a 1-20 spread, not 1-10. You should expect wild fluctuations with this spread.

2. You are ramping up too fast.

Neko

"2. You are ramping up too fast."

You have a point. Often, after a series of boring TC=0 shoes I would put down the big bet as early as TC +2. It does increase EV, but I guess the price to pay are wild fluctuations.

If you are ramping up too quickly because you are getting "bored" then maybe you don't have the psychological necessities to be a card counter at the present time. I am NOT saying this as a flame or an insult... just saying that it takes more than pure knowledge to win at card counting, and that maybe some self-evaluation (and even self-criticism) would be a big help to you. A true pro is not afraid to be critical of his own game and never rests on his laurels thinking he knows it all.

Do you use strictly basic strategy, or do you change some decisions based on the count?

Hardly a scientific analysis, but I plugged your game in here
http://www.cardcounter.com/applets/BJ2.3/Blackjack_Applet.html
and the bankroll is swinging all over the place - from +$30K to -$30K.

I'm not an expert on the subject of betting efficiency, but from the books and articles I've read on the subject, it does look like you're overbetting for the advantageous counts, especially in going to 2x100 at only TC+3. You're putting too much hope in the possibility of winning at the plus counts. Hopefully someone else can confirm this.

Derek

I agree with what you said. Newbie22 should, if possible, GET AWAY from a 6 deck game because the swings can knock you right out. Go out of your way to play a double deck game, even if you have to travel to a place which offers this game. People think because they "should" make a few cents a hand that this is some kind of guaranteed income, which it is not. Large swings are possible. But if he has no choice and MUST play 6 decks, I recommend:
Do NOT ramp up from a minimum bet until AT LEAST TC +1.5 or 2. At TC +1 you don't have enough juice to justify a larger wager. For maximum bets, I would even go higher than TC +3. You won't get these counts very often and you could "get bored" waiting for them, but if you are the type to get bored waiting around for an opportunity then maybe you're in the wrong game.

Playing 2 boxes of 100 is not the same as playing 2 rounds of 100 bet,I hope some of the math experts explain to you way,you should buy SBA or BCA and run simulations so you can see for yourself.
You are puting too much money on this project stert small and when e shure you are a winning player go for it.

I didn't sim. you specific game but did use some of the pre-packaged sims in BJRM to get some numbers that may help.

4.5/6 S17 DAS nLS
HiLo with I18 and Fab4
4 players
$20,000 bankroll

The betting scheme below is that which maximizes DI. The ROR is then 13.5%. The spread in each case was 1-20. The numbers are also for play-all. Since you've been leaving at TC < -1, the DI for you game will be a little better.

TC 1 hand 2 hands

<=0 $15 $10
1 $56 $45
2 $141 $110
3 $212 $165
4 $296 $204

DI 5.11 6.16

The SD/100 for the 2 hands case is $1231.

Using the trip calculator for the 2 hands case indicates for 50 hours and 75 hands per hour your result will fall between -$4696 and +$10,382 68% of the time.

Risk is relative, but I would say that your current style has been a little aggressive (read relatively higher risk) and you've had a run of bad luck. You might consider dropping your bets in positive counts (limited in negative counts by table minimums) to 1/2 or 1/4 of what they are currently. Also, when you play two hands you might consider bets on each hand that are closer to 73% of your bet on one hand.

By way of the encouragement that you wanted, I personally don't think you've done that badly. The cards haven't been with you, but that will always happen off and on and at least here you might benefit by looking closer your game plan than you would have if you had experienced a run of good luck. I know it's not much of a consolation.

Anyone care to share some bad losing streak stories? I need to gain some confidence in this thing, cause right now I have none.

I've had several consecutive streaks like this lasting over a year.
You may need to check your risk tolerance level. You will experience worse losing periods than this.
Although I toughed out several losing streaks like the one you describe in the end I came to the conclusion that it would be better to ameliorate the effects of the negative swings by diversifying into areas of advantage play with lower variance. You may consider this as an option-learn how to hustle comps, find promotions, shuffle-track perhaps or learn to play tight at low stakes poker.

At the beggining of your post you said: Small bet $10, big bet $100

At the end of your post you said: Count gets to +3, I sigh and chuck down 2xblackchip

So, you bet twice max at a count that didn't even justify a max bet, then complain about the result. This sounds like a huge overbet, chasing your losses, and should be a good lesson.

Big losses suck, but they are never as big when you stay within your limits as they can get when you start chasing.

Big lesson cost big bucks.

--Mayor

You've received some excellent responses. One statement you made that hasn't been addressed is your assumption that you have a 4% advantage at your max bet level of +4 true. Assuming hi-lo is your count, your advantage at this true count is probably only somewhat above 1 1/2%. Plus one is barely over break even and each true count integer added thereafter adds just a shade over 1/2% advantage. Your spread, as indicated by the sim work of others, is probably a winning one, though not necessarily an optimal one.

At least your bankroll is a replenishable one as you've implied that you've lost the equivalent of a months wages. I'm sure there are a few in Vegas who are trying to make a living at this with a $20,000 bankroll. Yikes! I don't think I'd even consider trying to make a full time go of this game with less than $140,000 (not that you're thinking of going full time or anything).

I think many on these boards have a misconception that anything less than a 1-12 spread is a losing spread for a 6D game. Actually, even is one is playing a marginal 6D S17 4/6 pen game, one could using a 1-4 spread, play all, and still have a slightly (less than 1/10th of a unit per 100) winning EV. There are those who will play such a break even spread when playing for room comps and such.

O.K., so I'm not playing anymore, but that doesn't mean that I can't post once in awhile, now does it?

Keep the faith,
Telescopic