in that situation anytime, I would immediately move to Vegas, and easily make a very comfortable living. Not playing at double the pivot point is idiotic.
If you want to be the house, and play me in such a situation, ante up.
it is still highly doubtful they would have an accurare rating of thier skills such that they could properly weigh the usual playing advice and their intuition. People simply fail to test all of their intuitions, and recall only the succesful ones, which is not to exclude the possibility that some have more successful intuitions than unsucessful ones to a high degree of statistical significance
I will repeat what I put in another post a while back:
There are two required skills:
1. You must know how to play; and
2. You must know how to win.
If you know neither, you have NO chance.
If you know how to play but not how to win (and it appears you are in this category), you have NO chance.
If don't know how to play, but do know how to win, you at least have a *chance* of hitting a run of pure, dumb luck and going home winner.
But if you know BOTH how to play AND how to win; you have a reasonable shot of winning reasonably consistently, and winning more than you lose in the long run.
IMHO, your priorities are wrong.
The goal here is not to "play perfectly." You can play perfectly all day long and still lose.
The goal here is to WIN MONEY!
By all means, perfect your skills and play as much as you can to help you win money. But do NOT lose sight of the primary goal: WIN MONEY!
If you persist in your inverted priorities, you will indeed be playing "until your last penny is gone."
I really don't want an argument and I will keep an open mind, but all I am hearing is that sometimes you leave the table at a positive count. In my defense, I just can't see any reason to leave a table where I have finally reached a point that gives me a definite edge over the house.
I would truly appreciate it if you would explain this to me in detail, because I am still learning, and I will give it serious thought. If it is something that you don't want to discuss on an open forum I would gladly except an E-mail.
I absolutely hope that you can convince me on this, because I really believe that it could improve my E.V. considerably to be able to know when I'm going to get killed in those high counts, and when I can take full advatage of them.
Anxiously awaiting a reply.
You can get the same exact advice from the drunk guy next to you at the tables. The dealer will be happy to chime in agreement with such 'wisdom'.
Here are some other ploppie 'truths':
Bet more when winning, less when losing.
The deuce is the dealer's ace.
Bad players at the table hurt you in the long run.
It doesn't matter if you play a hand 'correctly' or not, you just have to be consistent.
Face follows Ace.
3rd bases play can make or break the table. You have to have a good player at 3rd base.
Other player's jumping in and out of the game ruin the 'flow' of the cards
If you hear anything resembling the above remarks, it is best to just nod your head, and instantly forget anything that was said. It is a shame that such nonsense as 'Money Management' is allowed to be posted on the 'Beginner BJ' page.
I was just kidding about the dictionary thing. I guess I missed putting the winky face ( ;-) ) in the subject line. Sorry.
May all you're sessions
be profitable ones. :-)
hence I posted a clearer version. Cyclops got offended when I said thanks in similar circumstances. Thanks!
As if we don't have enough Osama bin Ladens busy protecting "the faith" from those nasty, evil heretics and unbelievers.
In thinking over all your past posts, I frankly cannot remember a single one which offered anything constructive. All I can recall is your self-important, know-it-all putdowns and riducule.
Of course, I don't read all your posts -- enough is enough. Who needs your truly offensive and obnoxious attitude?
However, the "examples" you have set forth have NOTHING to do with knowing or not knowing how to win.
I can only conclude you are among those who do NOT know how to win, and that you deeply resent those who DO know how to win. Get a f**king LIFE!
Which doesn't stand for Basic Strategy (although we know that is a losing strategy, so why insist that player's to your right adhere to it?)
"You got to know how to win" is ploppie wisdom right up there with "You got to know when you are in a hot streak, and know when to leave during a cold streak".
I was just giving some other examples of other ploppie wisdom, similar and with equal validity to your "money management' nonsense.
If you leave a shoe during a high count, "because you have been losing, or have lost a lot, or you are in the middle of a losing streak", then you are giving up a good chance of winning back your losses.
Three reasons to leave a shoe with a positive count:
1) you are getting heat from the pit.
2) you have run out of money.
3) you are making mistakes and errors (at which time you should reexamine if you are really cut out for advantage play in the first place - this is kind of like an actor who doesn't perform well in front of an audience).
Three reasons to not leave a shoe with a positive count:
1) the guy at first base took a hit and messed up the flow of the cards.
2) I lost the last 4 hands in a row
3) I might lose some of the money I won 2 hours ago
He'll never get that!
Better to save it for someone at least capable of understanding how nicely you've just "zinged" him!
@^D
Cyclops
Let me put it this way:
1. Anyone who truly believes the only thing you need to know about this game is keeping, playing and betting the count in proportion to bankroll is wearing blinders.
2. Anyone who deliberately ignores the lessons of experience is a fool.
3. The chalking up of catastrophic events to "variance" is just another way of saying, "shit happens." The clear implication (and the truth of it) is that you don't know *why* it is happening.
When a runaway steamroller is headed straight for you, the prudent thing to do is get out of its way, then worry about the *why* of it, and how the event might have been prevented, *after* you're out of immediate danger. Only a fool would allow himself to get flattened while trying to convince himself that the steamroller will probably change directions at the last second.
2. Anyone who deliberately ignores the lessons of a fool is experienced.
<<3. The chalking up of catastrophic events to "variance" is just another way of saying, "shit happens." The clear implication (and the truth of it) is that you don't know *why* it is happening. >>
Sorry to break this to you ol' fella, but shit happens. Then you die. The kind of induction that you, Stinky, and Frankie try to employ reminds me of the the story that Bertram Russell tells to show the fallacy of that kind of induction (this is not exact, but close):
"The farmer feed the chicken on every day of its life, until its last day, when the farmer wrings its neck. This implies the need for a wider world view for the chicken."
Here's another little aphorism for ya (I forgot who came up with this one):
"Want to make God laugh? Tell him your plans."
The moral? You're assuming a meaning/cause exists, AND that it can be understood. In so doing you are confusing INduction with DEduction. The hospitals are filled with people who make the same error, hence the need for rule number 2 above.
Think about it.
Aloha.
The math boyz are getting to an EE.
the bond fund continues to grow with occasional W-2G deposits,
Doing nothing and resting afterward, reqiures vacations.
At the risk of being flamed by wayward lawyers again, I'll chime in, for old coot's sake. He wrote
"1. You must know how to play; and
2. You must know how to win. ...
I don't know how to play, but do know how to win."
Now, this is a misnomer, right there, Coot. Knowing how to play means knowing the rules of the game and not much else - perhaps how to speak to the dealer, etiquette at the table, etc. That's about it.
Knowing how to win means being able to play a game that gives you overall a constant advantage, big or small. The bigger the advantage, the smaller the fluctuations that you'll encounter in your fortune. The smaller the advantage (like it is in card counting), the bigger the fluctuations. These fluctuations, aka luck, is what confuses players because they mistakenly think that consistent advantage means consistent wins.
It doesn't.
There is no way for someone to predict a positive fluctuation of his fortune, aka good luck, before it happens. But we can certainly identify it after the fact! A common fallacy is the thinking of some players that, because they can identify good luck when they see it (i.e. after they see it), that they somehow know how to have good luck, i.e. win. But this is taking things in reverse logical and chronological order. Don't fall for that.
Take care.
Those who advocate "toughing it out" under these unusually dire situations are, IMHO, closing their minds to the possibility that there *could* be a reason.
To cite the specific example, there were 2 decks left and a TC of +2. Yet the player was getting hammered. Assuming a 6-deck game with 1� decks cut out of play, there is a distinct possibility there could be (for example) 6 (or more) more high cards than low cards on the other side of the cut card.
Of course, you don't *know* that -- and you CAN'T know that until you've counted up to the cut card.
Here's what you *do* know: (1) the count is high and (2) you're losing badly. In fact, going back to the specific example, you've just lost 7 hands in a row with a high count.
IOW, things are *not* happening the way they're "supposed" to happen.
Is there a reason? You don't know, and you can't know. You might be able to find out later, but only after it's too late and the damage has been done.
But there *could* be a reason -- and to completely reject the possibility that there could be a reason is just plain foolish. It is tantamount to deliberately wearing blinders.
So, what's left?
Maybe relying on your experience that in the *vast* majority of cases these situations do NOT turn around.
This experience clearly implies that "reasons" DO exist, even if you don't/can't always know what the reasons are/were.
Ergo, the prudent thing to do is get the *hell* off that table with what's left of your profit, and live to play the other more usual situtations when things *are* happening more or less the way they're "supposed" to happen.
