Strategy Question needs to be settled

My "friend" is a failed Atlantic City magician who thinks he can be a black jack mechanic. "Friend" is in quotes because I don't really lile the guy and because he is really a friend of a friend of a...

Anyway, we got into an arguement. Here is his newest plan.

He says he knows of some Indian casino in Canada that plays Vegas Strip rules. His plan is to go from table to table, and pocket about 10 face cards. Then he goes to the biggest limit table and slowly replaces his 10 face cards with 10 other cards. He says it's a 6 deck game, so he's looking at a true count of +3.5.

My first advice is, dont do it. He's got damn quick hands but it wont work. He says the casino has low quality security cameras, they hardly ever switch decks, stupid dealers, etc etc. I do know he has never been to Canada so I don't know what he is basing everything on. He is an idiot.

Which brings me to my question. He asks me for advice on what to do.
I know a little about blackjack and I gave him my advice, but he isn't agreeing. Here's what I said (After again telling him not to do it):

-Take out 4's, 5's and 6's and put in the face cards. These are the most powerful to remove.
-Alter basic strategy in the following ways: stay on hard 15 against dealer 10, don't hit 12/13 against dealer 12.
-Always take Insurance
Hypothetically (As I doubt he will ever end up North of the border), what else would he do?

I was thinking doubling a soft 17,18,19 against dealer 4,5,6. If you get a 10 or Ace, you have a good total. Also, the 2,3,4 are still in play so they could improve you.

This is what I would do if this sitution could be pulled off. But I would never try it. And I hope he wouldn't.

I was curious if what I told him is the same as the experts. What would you guys do if you could switch cards around?

so is doubling them against a 3. Doubling soft 19 vs. 6 is basic strategy in all H17 games and in SD-S17 games.

First off, he will get caught simply because you are not allowed to touch the cards up here. I don't care how fast you are, you will get caught. They use the same security they do in LV. The OPP are like your state troopers down there. Indian Security will have you for hours thru a few shift changes before they turn you over to the OPP. That is unless you are in Quebec. The QPP is like the OPP on steriods. You want to make a phone call? Parle vous francaise??

Usually card mucking takes place in a hand held game. Your friend is a blow hard, an attention seeker, and knows far better than he is letting on about. A good card mucker can muck a 5 out of a hand and replace it with a 10 then play that 5 with a 4 from the next hand and double it against the dealers 6 up and retain the 10 from that hand until he gets an Ace to go with it. He can bet big all of the time with an advantage like his, but he will get caught sooner or later.

I can switch cards around. What would I do? Card tricks for fun, and that's about it. Tell your friend that if he likes doing card tricks to stay at home, unless he wants a sore bumhole in an overnight Canadian piss tank where they will just love his little card tricks for about 30 seconds.

I agree, this guy will get nailed. The only place he could pull that off is casino night at the retirement home.

Interesting question though.
Would you double an A,8 against some hands? Double an A,7 on a 2?

I would stay on 12 against a 2 or 3.

What would the player's edge be playing regular basic strategy?

why don't you encourage him to get involved with some silly shit like this? Then you will be rid of him in short order.

eldo

playing BS you would have about a 1.35% advantage overall.

Double s18 vs 2
Double s19 vs 4,5,6
Double s13 vs 4
Double 9 vs 7
Split 4,4 vs 4
Split 9s vs 7,A
Stand 12 vs 3,2
Stand 16 vs 10
Always take insurance.

Be prepared to say Hi to your new wife, Big Bubba.

I'm an intermediate player. I go to Lake Charles every once in a while but intend to start going more. I have a bad habit of staying at the tables for longer then I should. I've been know to stay, even when I've tripled my money, only to lose nearly all after staying at the same table for an average of nearly 6-8 hours.
First question is, I've heard that if you stay too long at one table you are bound to lose. The same person told me that once your dealt 3-5 losing hands at a time, you should move to another table. And after you've won more then double, you sould always stop and go home. Do you find this as a true statement?
As for the great hint on what when you should double or split, I have one more question. You stated to always take insurance, I've been told to never take insurance that this was just giving your money to the house. Why do you think it's best to always take insurance?
Also, when you stated to split 9's when the dealer is showing an Ace or 7. Why would you? If the dealer is showing a 7, aren't you suppose to assume that they have a 17? Which your 18 would win?
Please help me on these tips.
I want to learn how to play smarter and win more, so information from anyone would be warmly welcomed.

Is there anything else you can tell me or help me with??? I don't like the slots and love playing black jack. If I could get pointers from you, as well as others, how know the game better then me, I'd deeply appreciate it. :-)

Respond or e-mail me at anyime

Thanks a million
Carol
enchantrass@aol.com

Just get a gun and hold up the cashier cage.

It's a lot less hassle and the end result will be the same - a lengthy prison term.

The strategy I posted was in response to Howard, who was giving the example of 10 extra face cards being switched into the deck.

So if you are playing a game that has the normal amount of cards in it, then yes, you stand on 9,9 against a dealer's 7 and do not split.

But if you ever see someone slip a bunch of face cards into the game, follow my above strategy until they lead that person away in handcuffs.

There is a Yahoo club on the net somewhere that has links to radio interviews with card counters, and one guy claims he got away with this for years... and was never caught.

Forget this wanna be criminal. You are expected to stand with A,8 in multi deck games, but if you can inspire your neighbor to double, you can get in on a good thing. You will be destroying their overall advantage by doing so, but this is what you can expect:

A,8 vs 2 = 2.39%

A,8 vs 3 = 3.00%
A,8 vs 4 = 3.56%
A,8 vs 5 = 4.17%
A,8 vs 6 = 4.79%
A,8 vs 7 = 3.19%

A,8 vs 8 = 1.97%

I would concentrate on the 3-7 hands since I normally am wonged in or out at a high minimum table with empty seats and flat betting ploppies. The casino and table usually like the extra action.

..and you can hear the interviews yourself at rgt on the Larry Grossman show.

Didn't Kenny Uston say the same thing? :)

(Just bugging you Parker.)