Skill or incredible luck?

From August 1999 thru March 2000 I found myself going to the same Indian casino 3-5 times per week never taking more than $50 with me. On each and every occassion bar none, I walked away with a minimum of $1000, often more, but since I was going so frequently, I found myself walking away from hot tables with the attitude, there's always tomorrow so no need to be greedy. I reiterate that not once during that time did I ever lose or just break even. I was playing 6 deck shoes, face up, usually playing 3rd base and winning everything. I couldn't make a bad play.

I became so prolific at BJ that I soon had a following and without ever reading up on the subject began to see patterns and making my own rulesets. I started playing multiple hands at table stakes. I began to expound to the onlookers what my strategies were. Eventually the casino brought me into a back room with 10 six deck shoes and had me play out all of them. They were checking to see if I could count to a six deck shoe. I explained I had merely began to notice patterns in how the cards fell and it seemed very natural and I wasn't trying to do anything nefarious. They decided I was just uncannily lucky, but also recommended I stop voicing my strategies to onlookers. Meanwhile I was welcome to play because I was (in their words) "Good for PR" as I am a joyfully loud player telling jokes, laughing, having a great time, congratulating others on their wins, commiserating with others losses, and being on a first name basis with just about everybody.

I was seeing patterns in the cards. I anticipated dealer cards, I knew if the dealer was going to bust or not and I started playing to bust the dealer, rather than make my hand. This worked great and caused tables to fill up the moment I took 3rd base. I racked up player points good towards rooms and meals like crazy...alomst $10,000 worth in just that 6 months. During this same time I also won several jackpots in the poker room and hit $50 bets on Black 17 on roulette twice in a row. I believed I was unbeatable. Realize, those other games were just for a break, BJ is my game, so I really started to think I'd been suddenly blessed or had had "the epiphany".

One day, I did what I think may have been the turning point. I committed what I consider to be the ultimate gamblers sin. I professed to being bored because every hand was a win. There were never losses. I may have jinxed myself right there, at the risk of sounding superstitious, which I actually am not.

Since that time, I've had no better luck than anyone else. I've had good days and bad, and the bad are really bad....being beaten over and over while showing 20s, 19s, etc. Now I'm starting to believe that I underwent the worlds best good luck streak and count my blessings, or that I "had it" and somehow lost it. I'd like to believe I'm just in a slump, but the best thing I learned is how to walk away.

I still go up once a week with $20. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose, sometimes I break even. The rulesets I made up no longer work. My ability to guess the dealers hand seems to be only 50%. I guess my best skill right now is walking away without going to the ATM when I lose, and walking away when that little voice inside says its time to go even though I'm winning.

I'd sure like some feedback on if I was just incredibly lucky 3-5 days per week for 6 months straight, or if I actually did figure something out and am just in a slump, or what....

Walter T. did it. Describe your system in it. Sounds like you have a ready market of players at the casino you play at.

In the mid-1980's, a man in Canada won the national lottery two years in a row. Since it was known how many tickets were sold, the odds against this happening by chance was computed, and the answer was one in trillions and trillions- the exact number was said to be greater than the known stars in the universe. Yet it happens.

The scientific worldview tells us that events are not organized by any kind of outside force. Randomness rules. Science has offered chaos theory to demonstrate that disorder lies at the heart of nature and numbers. A coincidence says otherwise; it is like a brief period of reprieve from chaos- such as your luck- a series of lucky coincidences.

6deckShoe NEVER MENTIONED a progressive betting pattern in his post.
Seems like he was using a card counting "observational analysis" and may have gone to multiple hands or increased his bet based on the count.
Might also be possible that he was an "inspirational bettor" on a winning streak... it happens.
Bottom line is, "When you're hot, you're hot." But it doesn't last for long...

you were very lucky! But don't assume that you can't repeat your winning streak. Think about how you played, how you bet, and what may have changed your outcome after your winning streak faded... was it something you were doing, based on your previous record?
Try to understand that every time you sit down at the table is just like the first time you sat down at a table... the cards don't know or care what happened to you the last time you played! Try to begin every session with the assumption that you might win, and accept the fact that the casino has a built-in advantage.
Best of luck!
Walter

You have not gone to just plain HORRIBLE cards. You are is a mode
where you still have some luck, so skill can be of some help.
Avoid big losses and run when you are ahead. Been there done that.

IMHO It was a combination of luck and skill. I believe I had a similar, but much shorter, run of luck/skill before I really learned the game. I feel that the sub-conscience can actually keep track of the cards, if allowed to, so you can go with your "gut" feeling. However, eventually you learn enough about the game that your conscience mind will take over and once that happens there is no going back.
I would suggest that you take the next step and learn proper basic strategy and counting techniques as discussed here. I would NOT suggest trying to get back into the "groove" of your play as you will most likely wind up chasing your losses like so many other gamblers.

Since you brought it up, I'll tell you how I was betting.

I never went to the casino with more than $50 in my pocket, often with only $20. I always play the $5 table because if I want to I can bet more. It wasn't until a few months went by that I started using the $25 table and making much larger bets.

I would wait until the beginning of a shoe to sit down. I start by placing single minimum bets until I see a pattern develop, usually 1/3 through the shoe. Then I would start playing 2 hands at a time, alternating 2 hands, 1 hand, 2 hands, 1 hand, and so on. Occassionally to move the deck the other way, I'd move up to 3 hands or stay out of one hand. I found that by alternating the number of hands played, I could "rotate" the cards a bit...yes I'm aware it doesn't really happen that way but it sure seemed to. When I had at least $100 in front of me, I started making larger bets, but stuck to my number of hands method. Eventually I gained the attitude that you NEVER play your bet, you play your cards. Those chips are just chunks of plastic that don't effect the outcome unless you let them.

I observed that people playing minimum bets took chances they wouldn't take with larger bets. I learned not to do that. If I'm going to take a chance its based on the cards, not the size of the bet.

Eventually I moved up to the $25 table consistently, bringing $200 with me (strictly winnings) and playing the same style, same method, same philosophy. In the back of my mind was "no guts no glory" attitude. I proved to myself that the size of the bet had no bearing on the game...I was playing the cards, not the chips.

For me, alternating between one hand and multiple hands really worked. I like playing multiple hands better because it gives me the advantage of turning a loss into a break even.....if you don't lose, you've won because you have the same money BUT you've been able to keep playing. That also worked for me.

I don't know what progressive betting is, but you're right about an observational analysis...that's exactly what I did. I would watch the fall of thecards and notice that a whole lot of small cards were coming out and large cards were due. I'd raise my bets. If a lot of large cards were coming out before me, I'd play as if the dealer had 20 but I'd play to bust the dealer if I could.

Perhaps without realizing it I was playing some sort of established strategy, but from where I sat, I made my discoveries on my own. I don't know. I think it was skill to a point. I mean, if it was sheer luck, then that would explain the occassional big win for a week or two...but consistently huge wins 3-5 times per week for 6 months straight????

You know I think you're right. I have been trying to get back into that groove and its been most frustrating, although I still have the SKILL to walk away :)

I have been reading up on the strategies mentioned in this forum and am happily discovering that somehow, although I don't know how, I came up with a lot of this same stuff on my own during that 6 month period.

I am intrigued by the soft game though and am studying that a bit. As far as counting..what's happening right NOW with me is that I'm still being accurate as to what should come out, but the cards are skipping me...an example would be if my count tells me there should be a slew of small cards (and I need one) they will come out all small except I'll be the one to draw the ONE high card coming out. That's SO frustrating...almost like God is having a joke on me. Still, I realize that it IS the luck of the draw, but to see all 10/10 come out to everyone and I get the 10/6 to the dealers 10...just makes you wonder what went wrong hehehehe.

Keep playing with small bets and try to be defensive until luck turns around and your confidence is restored. I've been through it. It is all in the game. Now, you have exoperience and know first hand.

If I were you, I'd be careful not to push the game but become flexible as the cards demand it in this new circumstance. Such lucky streaks are rare and far in between. It is not what happens with most players and you are no different than them.

I have had lucky streak runs, but in general of shorter durations- like 6 winning sessions out of 7 for many years. Accoedingly, I thought that was it! The usual run of things. Wrong. Then came a period of almost 2 years of lean times and no matter what I tried, it did not work. I even stopped playing bj for a while and it's the only gambling I do. However, things change. The cards do not know you. It's a lesson that is valuable than no matter how skillful one may be, when luck is not there, no skill can overcome the challenge.

That's why I find these discussions of increasing your edge by a tiny % point quite ridiculous and amateurish.

If you really feel lucky buy a lottery ticket. The payoff is much much higher than blackjack.

Or enter the World Series of Poker. Winner walks with over a million bucks. All you gotta do is get lucky and get the good cards. See you at the finals table.

Yep, all you need is luck and get the good cards alright. Yep. Hyuck, Hyuck. One time me and my Pappy was so lucky, we bet $10 and got a blackjack first thing. Wooo Ewwww! Be confident and lucky, don't be worrying none about any of that fancy math stuff. Right, Joe Bob?

All you need is some experience. I'm sure you have the math downpath and it's all will come in due time. Obviously you don't believe in lucky streaks. Do you think when that happens it is because of the thin edge you have? It's just a matter of experience. May be you should be playing more and posting less, buddy!

The $65 to $75 an hour I average at the tables playing 900-1200 hours per year must all be due to luck. I guess in a couple more years of doing this I will have enough experience to recognize this.
Funny, none of the casinos that have barred me have mentioned my 'luck' as the reason for not being able to play any more blackjack there. Do you think it is because they are afraid I might take my blackjack 'luck' over to the mega-bucks slot machine and really hurt them?

How did you get that $65-75? This is not a game that you can count on like hourly wages unless you're calculating over a long period of time. I say not bad. How long have you been doing that, may I ask? Are you saying that you make your luck because of your skills? I'm curious why would they bar you from casinos? Are you serious?

I take the number of hours I have played divided by the total dollars profit I have won and I get $65 per hour. I have been doing this for several years. Luck cannot be depended upon to pay the bills, and if you don't play correctly, luck ain't gonna save you for any amount of time. Don't you realize that there is a detective agency hired by most of the casinos devoted to detecting counters and cheats?

Casinos invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in facial recognition software to detect when counters sit down at the tables? Why is it surprising to you that several casinos have barred me? Do you think they are afraid of my luck or their luck?

You shouldn't worry from being barred. There are too many casinos... You could go to a new one each day of the month- if you're that confident in your skills. But, be careful.

My impression is that you don't seem to have experienced yet a long streak of "negative fluctuation". But I say, it's just a matter of time. Then you may recognize that math and whatever skills you have will not be of help same as when beginners get a lucky streak thinking that they're playing intelligently for a while. Nobody is immune to the games ups and downs and no matter. No exceptions. The cards do not distinguish players. In time you may end up being more humble and tolerant to other views. Experience takes some time. With some a bit longer. I wish you good luck... oops, sorry, strike that out.

Frank is the best around. Tell us more about how you've been there, done that. You are my hero....slurp slurp

Thanks for your concern. I would rather have good cards than good luck.