Seeking Advice

Hello all,

I just found this message board and am wondering if you can help out a Rookie.

I started playing Blackjack about a year ago using basic strategy. I soon read Humble's Hi-Opt I and used that for a while. Then I was told that Hi-Low is better for multiple-deck games so I purchased Wong's Professional Blackjack. I now use Hi-Low to get a running count and basic strategy. I now find just keeping a running count and using BS a ho-hum experience. I usually play 10 minimum and go to 15 on high counts. I guess my question is what should be the next step to better my game? My plan was to get to the point where I can keep a true count and use the full indexes of Hi-Low and ultimately add Kelley to my game. I've won a decent amount of money just using the running count and basic strategy, but that's just not enough any more.

Any advice will be highly appreciated

Thanks!

If you must play before you have learned a system, the next step would be to range your bets with the count. Spreading 10-15 in a shoe game with no index plays will not give you a winning system, unless the game has extremely good rules. If you can't handle a max bet of 100, you should add wonging to your game. The next step would be to add index plays, and many will tell you that should be done before you start betting serious money. I would agree with them. PV

Thanks for the help. Yeah, I usually play under pretty good rules:
4 Decks
Double on any number
Double after split allowed
S17
Resplit allowed.

Would the 100 max bet be really neccessary under such rules, though? I remember reading that your entire bankroll should be at least 50x your max bet. College expenses don't allow for my bankroll to be at that number. I guess I'll get to it by means of using the indexes.

By the way, what is wonging?

The point is that count systems, whether Hi-Lo or APC or KO or whatever, all rely upon one thing to get the odds into our (player's) favor.

Namely, it's the idea of betting more when the odds favor you, and betting less when they do not.

See, if you "flat bet" (bet the same amount all the time) then you never really do anything to take advantage of when the odds are in your favor.

A way of looking at it is like this. Imagine a BJ game like no other. There are only aces, 10's, Jacks, Queens, and Kings in the deck.

(WOW! Our dreamland! :) )

Okay, but seriously. Every hand is going to be either 20 or 21, right?

So we're playing along. In this dreamworld, we can see that the dealer and the player both have equal odds of drawing a 20 or a 21.

There are only a few outcomes possible in this dreamgame.

D gets 20, P gets 20, push.
D gets 21, P gets 20, dealer wins the bet.
D gets 21, P gets 21, push.
D gets 20, P gets 21, player wins [b]150%[/b] of the bet.

AHA! You can immediately see that if everyone has equal odds of drawing either 20 or 21, the player has a massive advantage, because when he wins, he gets MORE than the dealer gets when the dealer wins.

Okay, you say. But real-life BJ isn't like that.

You're right. The primary place that the house gets its money back lies in the fact that if the player busts AND the dealer busts, the dealer still wins the bet (since the dealer takes the bet immediately when the player busts).

That rule variation, plus all the other little changes to the game, make it such that the house has a slight advantage over the player. It's not a lot, but with several players at dozens of tables all playing several dozens of hands per hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, we can see that even the small advantage winds up being HUGE for the house.

So. What are we to do about it?

Well, if we flat-bet, we never really get a chance to get back to that dreamland game. In the dreamland game, remember, the player's advantage is due to the fact that the player wins MORE money than the dealer wins. (The pushes wind up canceling out.)

So to get the player into the advantage, we "card counters" (or "advantage players) try to make it so that when WE win, we win more money than when the dealer wins.

And by whatever count system we use, we can figure out when WE have the advantage and are more likely to win.

So let's take another jump to dreamworld. This time, we're going to ignore the actual points of the hands, and only look at how likely we are to win. We're going to pretend this time that we know who's going to win each hand.

In 33% of the hands played, the dealer is going to win.

In 33% of the hands played, it's an equal chance as to who's going to win, or it's going to be a push.

In 33% of the hands played, the player is going to win.

Now, we know exactly which hands are which. How are we going to bet?

Well, obviously if we flat-bet, we're going to break even.

So the answer is that we're going to not play at all when the player is going to lose, and we're going to bet as much as we can possibly afford when we know the player is going to win, right?

Well, coming back to the real world, we can't do that. No casino with any brains at all would let us.

So the answer is that we must bet "as much as we can" during the games we think we're going to win, and "as little as we can" during the games we think we're going to lose.

How much is as much as we can, or as little as we can?

Well, that's determined by our bankroll, and by how much the house will notice or allow before they boot our asses out. :)

So when PV says that you gotta increase your spread, that's what he's talking about. The fact is that the amount we can spread is what gives us a large portion of our advantage over the house.

Your problem is that the minimum amount the house will let you play is too close to the maximum amount that your bankroll can really afford. Our advantage under any/all systems is so small that there's still a considerable risk of ruin if we were to bet too much; we have to have reserves for the inevitable times that we have the advantage, but we wind up losing anyway.

So I'd venture to say that your basic "next step" is two-fold. First, learn and perfect your system. You should know it cold, backwards and forwards. Second, develop a good cover. That will allow you to vary the bet more. Third, either find a game that allows a lower minimum bet (there's $5 mins all over the place, and in some places you can get a $2 min) and/or increase your bankroll to a point where you can afford to increase your spread.

Personally, I'm still in the first phase. I just figured out that we really can have a system, and we really can gain an advantage. So right now I'm in the midst of figuring out which of the local casinos have games that help me, developing my cover so I don't have a giant flashing "Card Counter!" sign on my chest when I play, and I'm working on my bankroll.

(Luckily for me, at least over you, I have a good job that pays a lot of money. Unluckily for me, I also have a mortgage, car, bills, a dog, and a girlfriend, all of which suck up the vast majority of the salary that is left after Uncle Same takes out the taxes. If it weren't for all that crap, I'd already have a mid to upper 5-figure bankroll! LOL)

Good luck,

Coop

First, apologies if the post comes off too simplistic. However, it is exactly that kind of post I needed to read when I first started; perhaps I shouldn't assume that others are as big a dingbat as I was. :)

Second, "wonging" is the nickname for the practice of standing around in a casino and watching BJ games going on, counting the cards, and when the count gets into the player's favor, jumping in and betting.

The other side of "wonging" is that you leave as soon as the count falls back to the neutral zone or into the house's favor.

The problem with wonging is that it's obvious, and it's still not a guarantee of winning. Nonetheless, in a crowded casino, it's still a good way to go; it's much harder for the bosses to notice people doing it.

Additionally, there's a subgroup of people who seem to gamble in this manner (although they're not all card counting!) If you go at all, you've seen them... they kind of wander, aimlessly, usually fondling their money or chips, and for no apparent reason at all they'll stand at a table and then just jump in on an empty spot.

Team play is all about wonging, as far as I can tell. The thing is that rather than stand behind a table and trying to count cards without moving your lips (I'm still working on this one myself), the wonger is "called" in by an accomplice who's sitting counting cards (but not varying their bet, so they don't stand out).

When well done, the house will only figure out that they're being played when it becomes obvious that the wonger is either impossibly lucky (because they win so much) or they're using a count system and team play.

And since those random people, the ones who aren't really wonging, sometimes do get hot and win a bunch, the true wongers have a "cover". The house doesn't want to ban the random folks too early, because the house will eventually make a lot of money from them.

Coop

Hmm, never thought of wonging, thanks for the heads up! There's a casino four hours away from where I live that has really nice rules and a sea of 25 minimum tables. Maybe I'll wong there(since I never go to play there) and get the bankroll I need there. But then again, the risk of ruin may be a bit high. Any idea what it would be? Playing $25 on high counts, using full indexes, with about a thousand bucks?

Professional Blackjack and not know what Wonging is? I suggest you immediately stop playing blackjack and re-read your books once again. You need to spread with at least a 12:1 ratio between your big bets and small bets or only bet in positive counts to have a chance to win with the game you are playing. If you can't afford this then you should save up money until you can afford this.

I suggest you immediately stop playing blackjack and re-read your books once again.You need to spread with at least a 12:1 ratio between your big bets and small bets or only bet in positive counts to have a chance to win with the game you are playing.

I suggest you go and read Blackjack Attack (Chapt 11 in particular) before you start giving advice like this. You scare away beginners with small bankrolls.

The truth is with wonging, you can gain an advantage by flat-betting in positive EV counts, although a shallow spread like 1-2 or 1-4 is preferable. The difference in SCORE between a 1-4 and 1-12 spread is not much.

For a 1-2 to 1-4 spread, it is recommended that you wong-in at TC>=+2.

You didn't mention the specifics of the game (rules, penetration). Beware that some venues don't allow mid-shoe entry. One thing you have to consider is that you won't be able to play long before your tactics become obvious. Do you think that an 8-hour round trip is worth being able to play 1-2 hours?

Also consider you only have only $1000. At a $25 table your risk of ruin is going to be high. Assuming that your life won't completely fall apart if you lose it, I would recommend the following.

Backcount until TC>=+2. Leave when TC < +1.
Bet $25 when TC < +5, $50 when TC >= +5.

Expect to win around $10/hour.

You will need patience, as it is very possible that TC>=+2 count won't occur for a hour or so. In any case, you will be playing only about 10% of the hands you see.

The best book to read about such matters is Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger. A new edition is emininent, so you have to decide whether you want to wait for it or not.

PS. Some casinos has mirrors on the roof. Some of these casinos also have televisions over the pit. This makes it easier to backcount while appearing to watch TV.

Since Spetz was not aware of wonging, one must assume that he needs a little more work before investing in a big bankroll and attacking the tables. New guys who are under-banked NEED to be scared away from the game; at least until they are better prepared. Wongng is one way to go here, but it also has it's negatives. For someone just trying to learn how to play, it's not as great as it sounds. The number of hands per hour that he will likely play is very small, and he's not going to pick up much in terms of how to spread, a critical part of the game. I would advise the same thing BP did, go back to the books for a while and get a better feel for the system; I'd go farther, and say learn the indices as well. PV

From bigplayer's post:

You need to spread with at least a 12:1 ratio between your big bets and small bets or only bet in positive counts to have a chance to win with the game you are playing.

I missed the OR. Yes, this is correct.

for the feedback. I'd rather here it here than make mistakes at the table. I'll most definately try that Panama Rick, thanks.

BTW, that same casino offers observer betting. Has anyone experimented with this? This would be pretty decent cover... observer bet on only high counts and on people that are playing fairly accurate BS.

Any thoughts?

observer-betting, which goes by several names, is common in many parts of the US, but it has a couple of obvious problems. First, it is easy to get backed off doing this, because it is so obvious, especially if you only ride on positive counts. Also, you are relying on the play of someone who may not be as skilled as you would like. The upside is very nice when it works out; give it a try. PV