What is the risk of ruin for the following scenario? Also, what is the expected hourly EV and standard deviation?
Single deck, RO6, total of 3 players, no DAS, H17, no RSA, double on any, bankroll $9,000, $25 unit, 1 - 4 spread, Hi Opt II.
Thanks for any responses and suggestions.
help exactly one person. No theory or math that will be instructive to anyone else, just an answer about one particular scenario. You have the right to ask them, of course. But you are just asking someone else to do your work. I'd advise getting a simluator and a tool like BJRM, or CV Data. You can get those answers rather quickly.
I used 31/52 pen to approximate RO6 to 3 players. I used BJRM, which assumes two players total, so these figures are not exact to the conditions you described, although they should be pretty darn close.
Assuming optimal bet spread, EV/100=$51.75, SD/100=$590, and ROR=6.85%.
Playing around with the bet spread a bit, I was able to get the ROR down to 4.43%, with a EV of $35.50 and a SD of $453. Even with this, the swings are likely to be huge (1SD low end for 100 hands is -$418, and 2SD is -$871).
I gave you figures per 100 hands (not per hour), since the hands / hour varies. Also, as you probably already know, penetration is everything. Dropping the pen to 26/52 results in a ROR of over 15%.
Optimal Bets:
TC <1 = 1 unit
TC 1 = 2 units
TC 2 = 3 units
TC 3 = 3 units
TC 4+ = 4 units
Risk Averse Bets:
TC <3 = 1 unit
TC 3 = 2 units
TC 4 = 2 units
TC 5 = 3 units
TC 6+ = 4 units
I would second the advice to get some simulator software if you need to analyze a wide variety of games. If you do not need full blown simulator software, then you can just use the charts in BJ Attack.
