I am looking forward to using the Renzy Key Card Count and am wondering if anyone out there could give me some feedback on their experiences with this counting system. Is it worthwhile to use or is it no better than flat betting? Any suggestions are greatly appreciated....Thanks.
The Key Card Count is a super-abbreviated counting system for recreational players wishing to step beyond basic strategy, but not into full scale card counting. In tracking 27% of the dealt cards, it converts a 0.50% house advantage (6 deck shoe) into a 0.25% player advantage using a 1-10 betting spread (by comparison, the standard Hi/Lo Count produces a 0.75% advantage under the same conditions -- KO about 0.73%).
The Key Card Count is "unbalanced", so no true count conversion is needed. 4's and 5's are +1; 10-pips and black Aces are -1. All 2's, 3's, 6's, 7's, 8's, 9's, Jacks, Queens, Kings and red Aces are ignored. With six decks, it's best to begin your running count at "10", and start ramping up your bets at "20" (about a +1.5 true count). There are also a small cluster of hands you'll play differently at a running count of "20" and above.
This count is actually the entry level "stage I" version of a family of "black Ace counts". You can expand your count a stage at a time by adding cards on the high and low sides, always maintaining that black Ace offset. The top of the line is the "Upgraded Black Ace Count (2's thru 6's are +1; all 10's and black Aces are -1. That has 16 basic strategy departures at various running counts. It produces a player advantage of 0.70% under the same conditions. Hope all this helps.
Fred Renzey
Thanks for your reply on the Key Card Count. I have one followup question: You mentioned the beginning count was "10"...I always thought it was "18". Could you clear this up? Thanks again.
Robear, Your starting count depends upon the number of decks in play. You want to begin at a number such that a running count of "20" down the road will be equal to a +1.5 true count (as nearly as possible). With a six deck shoe, that starting number would be "10". Here are a couple of examples:
IF "X" COUNT IT SHOULD THAT'S "X" AND "X" DKS. THEN YOUR
DKS.IN: IS: HAVE BEEN: TOO MANY: ARE LEFT T/C IS:
1 20 12 8 5 +1.6
2 20 14 6 4 +1.5
3 20 16 4 3 +1.33
4 20 18 2 2 +1.0
UNDERSTAND THAT THE FEWER DECKS THAT REMAIN, THE LESS OF A "PLUS" COUNT YOU NEED TO HAVE AN EDGE. This is because your disadvantage with a neutral count when only two decks remain is less than what it was off the top of the full six decks. Also, because of the abbreviated nature of this count, a +1.0 true count yields a more positive edge than +1.0 would with a broader count system. That's because here, the deficient low cards are all 4's and 5's rather than a combination of 2's thru 6's, or maybe 2's thru 7's.
The appropriate starting counts for other numbers of decks are listed below:
1 Deck 18
2 Decks 17
4 Decks 14
8 Decks 6
Note that in my book, I gave slightly different starting recommendations. My intention at that time was to render "20" equal to +2.0 T/C at all times. Subsequent computer testing has yielded modestly better results by ramping up the bets a little sooner. Regards, Fred Renzey
So sorry, I just read my own post and didn't realize it wouldn't maintain the column spacing the way I entered it (regarding various running counts and their respective true counts). Here's another whack at it.
Initial assumptions: Six deck shoe, starting count is "10" using the Key Card Count.
A) With one deck gone and a running count of "20", it should have risen only to "12". That means 8 extra 4's/5's came out and with five decks remaining it's a +1.6 true count.
B) With two decks gone and a running count of "20", it should have risen only to "14". Now 6 extra 4's/5's have come out and with four decks left, that a true count of +1.5.
C) Three decks in with a running count of "20" would be 4 points over since if three truly full decks remained it would be at "16". 4 cards rich divided by 3 remaining decks equals a +1.33 true count.
D) At four decks into the shoe, everything would be neutral if the running count was "18". But at "20", two extra 4's/5's have been played. The shoe is now two cards rich with two decks left for a +1.0 true count.
Please interject this in place of the squished upper case numbers/words. Fred Renzey
Fred,
I have purchase your book on bj (good) and read your column in the Herald on Fridays .
I am trying to switch to the Mentor count. I was using the Hi-Lo count ,but with Aces counted as -2, 10's as -1 and 2thru 7 as +1. It was being pretty succesful until recently around here in the Midwest. Especially agnaist a 4-deck shoe in Michigan.
I have read the bj "bible" Thorpes book too.
My slump in winning is forcing me to try the Mentor count. But my practices I get no real success yet. Progressive betting seems to work a little ,just doubling after doubling down until the end of the shoe.
Anyways,I am making plans to go to Rock Island and play the 6-dk shoe with LS , but they hit the soft 17.
How do U combat a slump? Or do U beleive in pure mathmactics for bj. I also try video poker.
Sincerly
a Fan
The Hi/Lo is a perfectly good count. However, increasing the Ace to -2 and compensating with the 7 as +1 actually hurts it a little (lowers is betting accuracy from 97% to 96%)! The Mentor is a great count, but will only improve your net edge by roughly 10% ($50/hour earnings become $55/hour).
As for dealing with slumps -- they will come and go no matter what! Progressions are not the answer, nor is any other method of breaking form. Not even ceasing to play for a while will necessarily end it since when you finally do come back, THAT will merely be your next hand -- rather than the one you didn't play a while back. Just have enough money, patience and fortitude. Even then, you could turn out to be the one skilled counter among many who might possibly never recover -- BUT the odds are well in you favor.
Fred Renzey
