Questions from a K-O Pitch player

I crashed and burned in early 2001 and gave up the game for a few months. My biggest problems were playing in inferior games and overbetting, sometimes coupled with fatigue. Lately, I have been coming back slowly, re-educating myself and patching the holes in my game.

I play single and double deck games and am using K-O with most of the I-18. In the book, the authors mention a "departure point" of -6 when half of a 2 deck pack is dealt. They don't go into further detail. Do you have an opinion on when to Wong out on single and double deck games to avoid a negative run?

Recently, I played a 1 deck game with 50% penetration (with late surrender) and all four Aces came out on the first hand. I sat out for the rest of the shoe. I watch Aces but do not sidecount them- do you have a departure point for Ace depletion on pitch games?

I can't remember which book I found it in, but there was a reference to the maximum number of other players you should consider playing with in pitch games. I think it was two players for single deck and three players for double deck- Do you know where I can find this, and do you have an opinion?

Lastly, when you find a pitch game with excellent penetration, is it advisable to overbet the count on the last hand or play a second hand? As I understand it, K-O is better for making betting decisions than playing decisions, but with deep penetration can you bank on "better" knowledge of the cards?

Hoping for help,

Sentry

I play single and double deck games and am using K-O with most of the I-18. In the book, the authors mention a "departure point" of -6 when half of a 2 deck pack is dealt. They don't go into further detail. Do you have an opinion on when to Wong out on single and double deck games to avoid a negative run?

Personally, I don't Wong out on single or double deck games. If I find a good single or double deck game that is worth playing, I use the play-all style of play most of the time. The point of departure described by the authors corresponds to a -2 count in Hi-Lo and it would be a good place to leave if you choose to use that style of play in pitch games.

Recently, I played a 1 deck game with 50% penetration (with late surrender) and all four Aces came out on the first hand. I sat out for the rest of the shoe. I watch Aces but do not sidecount them- do you have a departure point for Ace depletion on pitch games?

If you are using an ace-reckoned count, such as KO and the count remains high, you might want to stay in there on pitch games. Once more, I wouldn't recommend making a habit out of sitting out of negative counts in pitch games. In the case you describe, you could probably get away with it by simply remarking, "Well, there aren't any blackjacks left in this deck. I think I'll wait for the next one." However, sitting out on low counts in pitch games on a regular basis is sure to attract attention that you probably don't want. If you are playing a game where heat isn't a problem, then you might be able to get away with it, but you should be very sure that heat isn't a problem. I have seen reports from a lot of counters on these pages who didn't think heat was a problem right up until they got tossed.

I can't remember which book I found it in, but there was a reference to the maximum number of other players you should consider playing with in pitch games. I think it was two players for single deck and three players for double deck- Do you know where I can find this, and do you have an opinion?

This depends on the penetration, but a good rule of thumb for single deckers is that you don't want to play if there are more than two other players at the table, playing one hand apiece. There can be exceptions to this. For example, if you can find a game that deals three rounds to four players, it is a good game that is worth playing. If you find a game that deals two rounds to five or more players, you can make money at it, but it is a slow game that could slow down your hourly earning potential. As for double-deckers, the number of players at the table does not significantly affect EV, but it does slow down play. I don't know what book you might have seen this in, so I can't offer an opinion about that.

Lastly, when you find a pitch game with excellent penetration, is it advisable to overbet the count on the last hand or play a second hand? As I understand it, K-O is better for making betting decisions than playing decisions, but with deep penetration can you bank on "better" knowledge of the cards?

No, it is not advisable to overbet the count on the last hand. It might be advisable to spread to two hands on the last hand in a good count if it doesn't cause the dealer to shuffle up, but it can attract heat. One of the weaknesses of KO is that it overestimates the advantage later in the shoe. The Key Count may not be the place where an advantage still exists, but given the penetration normally available on pitch games nowadays, it shouldn't be a problem. Of course, the advantage at the Pivot Point is relatively constant, with some advantageous effects from the floating advantage if you are playing a deeply penetrated game.

Good post. Smart of you to recognize the cause behind your crash and burn: Inferior games, overbetting advantage, fatique. Add alcohol to the list and you have the famed Four Horsemen of Ruin.

Here's a few thoughts, hopefully a few others will chime in.

Departure point--wonging out--needn't be a consideration in single deck. Why would you? If the count goes negative, it can go very positive the next hand. Just bet minimum in negative and ride it out. Dropping out after you saw all four aces come out in the first round of SD was wise, but will also draw attention from the pit, particularly in higher stakes, or low stakes after they've watched you win for a while.

Same for DD. If a count goes very negative, I'll take a bathroom break on occasion, but more often I'll just ride it out. Sometimes we forget that we don't lose every hand in a negative count, sometimes we win half of them, or win a bunch in a row. One thing you might do to sharpen your game is expand your indices a little outside the I18 to include when not to split and double in negative counts. But playing through negative counts betting minimum at DD is not a very big blow to your expectation, not like it would be at 4 or 6D. It ends soon.

If I'm playing DD and there are other DD tables with spots open but the one I picked is giving the best pen, I'm not going to leave that table for another one, no matter how negative the count.

Another recommendation, practice and perfect a side-count of aces. It's very simple for SD and DD. SD you could do it right now (in your post, you already did!), DD takes about a half-hour of practice at the tables. Info on how to factor an ace side-count into standard KO abounds. I don't know how to do it for KO.

In term of number of hands, I too recall a sim that showed expectation dropping significantly at more than three hands for DD and SD. So I avoid casinos at peak hours, and will make a move to a table with one player if the table I'm at starts filling up. But if I've driven 90 minutes to a casino and my only option is to be the fifth hand at DD, I'll play it. Some of those players are going to drop out after a while. Another DD table that was full might get cleared. Watch the other tables.

It's never advisable to overbet the count. The one thing that has really stabilized my bankroll in the past three years has been to religiously base maximum bet on total bankroll; maximum bet being 1% of total bankroll is one way to do it (i.e. $5 table needs $5,000 bankroll to bet 1-10 units at SD/DD). It's tough to lose your bankroll doing that.

Unless playing head-to-head, in which case spreading to two hands offers no advantage over one (see Don S., "Blackjack Attack"), spreading to two hands where each is at 70%-75% of your single-hand maximum bet is advisable at upper positive counts. You gotta hang in there with that one. Sometimes you get killed.

Finally, as you get back into the flow of things, you might consider switching from KO when playing SD and DD. I switched to KO for all games when it came out, but now only use KO for 4D and 6D, and learned Zen for SD and DD. It depends on how much work you want to put into it, but a level-two system like Zen or Halves is a lot easier to play correctly during a SD session than 6D. I suspect--someone could corroborate--that even hi-lo with the proper factoring of aces is going to beat KO without an ace side-count, and hi-lo with an ace side-count isn't very tough when you only have to pay attention through one or two decks before you get to take a mental break.

SJ

I did a sim some time ago comparing the number of players at the table with EV for both single deck and double deck. There was a significant change in EV as more players came into the single deck game, but no significant change for double deckers, even with a full table. What did change was the hourly rate of earnings, but the actual EV did not change in crowded double-deckers.