At what negative count is it optimum to Wong out of a 6D table?
I have been wonging out at -2 true count. This seems reasonable, but I imagine there are some times that the shoe later turns positive. It is clearly not optimal to leave at any negative count because the shoe often later turns positive.
Has there been any analysis of the correlation between the count of the first half of the shoe and the count during the second half of the shoe? Intuitively, I believe there is a strong positive correlation. If the first half of the shoe is positive, the second half will be positive as well. Here is how I look at it. If the shoe is +1 true count at the half way point (running count +3), and the penetration is to one deck, we would expect on average the shoe to remain +1 throughout the remaining two decks. One of the extra tens should come out as each remaining deck is dealt.
If this is true, it would seem that I should be wonging earlier than -2. I have taken to "wonging at the table" just to see how things play out. I just tell the dealer to deal me out and stay and watch the rest of the shoe. Surprisingly I haven't gotten any heat or attention from this strategy.
Sorry for the length. Any thoughts would be appreciated.