I'm new. I had a dealer reveal the next card before I placed a bet. This is the second time this has happened, so I guess it must be common enough to learn the EVs of the first cards. Obviously, if you know your first card is an Ace you'd bet the farm. But this was a ten which seemed good, but how good? How valuable is knowing your first card?
Anybody know of an analysis of the EVs of the first cards? Or a good simulation software for such an analysis.
Not sure though if that's table max or max based on your bank-roll. I'm wondering if you may be someone I personally know who's nic name is Scooter. ??? Are you in CA? If so, we should talk off the board.
Scooter,
According to page 146 of Peter Griffith's authoritative The Theory of Blackjack (the elephant, or sixth, edition), a player's first card 10 or face provides a 13% advantage; by comparison, an ace is +52%, a nine is even money, and all other cards are -EV. Thus, you should bet the smaller of these: (1) the table maximum, or (2) (13% of your BR)/1.15 = 11.3% of BR for full Kelly (for less than full, take 11.3% of BR times the fraction of full Kelly).
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
