predicting the dealer's hole card

I recently came across two books, "Blackjack The Smart Way", and "New Ways To Win More At Blackjack" by Richard Harvey in which he claims he can teach you to predict the dealer's hole card by using what he calls card observation, the ducks and bucks method, and card counting in conjuntion with card observation. I found some not so nice comments about him on the web so I'm not looking for personal opinions about the man, just the cold hard facts. Has anyone ever tried any of his methods, if so which ones, and did they work for you? How do experts like Wong, Snyder, Scoblete etc. feel about his methods?

Personal criticisms of the author aside, the methods described in Blackjack the Smart Way and New Ways to Win More at Blackjack are not mathematically sound. The bottom line: someone who follows the advice in those books is playing a losing game.

Wong, Snyder, et al would probably not even bother to give their opinions on these methods, but if they did, their advice would be to avoid these methods, as they don't provide an advantage.

I don't use Richard Harvey's systems, I use a tradional counting system but let me just play devil's advocate for a minute and ask, if Bridge players can figure out what their opponents cards are from studying the cards dealt, why can't Blackjack players? Harvey is a former Bridge player and both games only use one deck.

You're absolutely correct--bridge players can make accurate determinations of their opponents' cards based on their own holdings. But consider the differences between the games:

* In bridge, you can at once see 26 cards: those in your hand and those in the dummy's. In blackjack, you rarely even see close to this many cards simultaneously.
* Even though you can have a very good idea of your opponents' cards in bridge, you don't know the ORDER of those cards. In blackjack, you would need to know the order of the remaining cards to predict the dealer's hold card.
* In bridge, you play until 13 tricks are taken. That is, until all the cards are used. This is equivalent to 100% penetration in blackjack, a far cry from reality.

Harvey's suggestions for hole card prediction amount to playing hunches and streaks regarding remaining cards. His "X factor" amounts to playing hunches and streaks regarding a particular table or dealer.

Based on the advice in both his books and his newspaper columns, I suspect that Richard Harvey is every bit as good at bridge as he is at blackjack.

... you figure out holdings by looking at the bidding and the cards down, and assuming opponents play rationally and legally. In blackjack, there is no bidding, and the dealer always plays last -- after you've done everything you're going to do. And the dealer doesn't even know the holecard!

The only clue to the hole card is the removal of the cards on the table, and that's already reflected in your count.

ETF