I recently got backed off at Parx in Philadelphia. I drove down to Atlantic City and played at Caesars. Since I had not been planning to play here, I just played how I thought would be profitable. I lost $15,000, and when I got home, I ran a sim on CVCX.
Conditions were as follows:
6/8 on average (1.5-2.5 cut)
H17, DAS
No heat, lots of one on one or two on one action
My betting ramp was as follows:
(I did not want to bet two hands and draw more attention since the casino was quite dead)
TC Bet
<-2 Stay out
0 to -2 $25
1 $50
2 $250
3 $400
4 $600
5+ $650
I ran the sim, and the numbers are roughly as follows:
Win rate per hundred hands: $70 (the hourly rate is higher since lots of fast action on empty tables)
SCORE: 15
NO: 70,000
SD: 1800
The SCORE is terrible, and so is the NO, but the win rate is decent, and since there was a lot of fast play, and zero heat, I was able to get in tons of hours (40 in four days).
My questions are:
1)If you had no other choice, would you have played this game? Or would you not have even played it?
2)What is the effect of playing a game with a high win rate but a low SCORE? I'm assuming there is greater risk involved, and you have much more volatile swings, leading to less stable results. But after thousands of hours, a game with a high win rate should be very profitable even with a low SCORE, correct?
Conditions were as follows:
6/8 on average (1.5-2.5 cut)
H17, DAS
No heat, lots of one on one or two on one action
My betting ramp was as follows:
(I did not want to bet two hands and draw more attention since the casino was quite dead)
TC Bet
<-2 Stay out
0 to -2 $25
1 $50
2 $250
3 $400
4 $600
5+ $650
I ran the sim, and the numbers are roughly as follows:
Win rate per hundred hands: $70 (the hourly rate is higher since lots of fast action on empty tables)
SCORE: 15
NO: 70,000
SD: 1800
The SCORE is terrible, and so is the NO, but the win rate is decent, and since there was a lot of fast play, and zero heat, I was able to get in tons of hours (40 in four days).
My questions are:
1)If you had no other choice, would you have played this game? Or would you not have even played it?
2)What is the effect of playing a game with a high win rate but a low SCORE? I'm assuming there is greater risk involved, and you have much more volatile swings, leading to less stable results. But after thousands of hours, a game with a high win rate should be very profitable even with a low SCORE, correct?
