penetr vs pos count frequency

Could anyone tell me where i often i met true count +2 and more with 60% penetr?How many shoes i have to play to see that count?

You it often jester +2 count 22% give 333%. The squirrel will fly at count negative 3.

You play one thousand shoe, you see Count Chocula at least 4 tinmes. You lucky, he wipe out Big Bird.

Tal Shek

six deck shoe, hi lo count, with 60% penetration

Count/Frequency of Count
0 / 50.15%
+1 / 11.99%
+2 / 6.89%
+3 / 2.86%
+4 / 1.59%
+5 / 0.58%
+6 / 0.30%
+7 / 0.09%
+8 / 0.05%

Terrible game.

suppose u have calculator which calculates penetr vs count freq?

I have verite software,but as i know it tells nothing about that.

so 60% is not good at all even 6 Decks, S17, DA2, DAS, ENHC, Early surrender(without against ace)?

is not as good as full ES, but it does help improve the games playability somewhat..but it won't effect your count frequencies. You'll still need to bet very aggressively in almost any plus count...full out max bet no later than +3. Without ES-10 the game is unplayable IMHO...with ES-10 it's still pretty poor but might be playable....I don't have the time to run a full blown sim to find exactly how playable.

CVCX from qfit will do this...

The ES10 and DA2 options which are very rare in Europe make this game a comparativly good one in spite of the poor penetration.The disadvantage off the top is only 0.25% instead of 0.6% for European standard.
Of course , you shouldn't wait until TC+2 before betting big as you have a clear advantage already at +1.
However,a slow shuffle process can render such a game unattractive.

Francis Salmon

lucky dog. Damned near ruined my 19" LCD monitor as coke came out of my nose when I read that. :)

privador,

Using CVData, I ran a simulation for the case you specified.

To see the results, you have to scroll way, way down... I don't know why I'm getting so much blank space in the output, but trust me... it's down there!

The simulation was for 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, ES10, ENHC (Dealer BJ Wins All), heads-up, with the shuffle point set at 125 cards remaining (so about 60% penetration).

This outut from CVData is a reverse cumulative distribution chart, so the numbers you see in each row represent the percentages from that row UP. Thus, you'll see a HiLo TC of +2 or more 17.10% of the time, or roughly 1 hand in 6.

Ignore the Total Bets column, because I used an inadequate 1-8 spread... to make money at this game, you'll need to use a much wider spread, and thus a much larger fraction of your total bets will occur in high counts.

Hope this answers your question!

Dog Hand

The ES-10 makes up for a multitude of sins...I don't think you should be making a max bet at +1....but you shouldn't wait around til +4 either. A full blown sim is required to determine the exact optimum max bet point.

The blank lines are due to an oddity in the forum software. You can avoid these by using the CVData POST-IT function instead of the WWW function. It was developed specifically to get around this problem.

Norm,

Thanks for the input!

Here's the table, using the Post-It function:

Privador 6D ENHC

Monday, February 21, 2005, 05:36 PM

Player #1: Cumulative Distributions by TC

Thanks, Norm... that's a lot better!

Dog Hand

...when I said "bet big". Betting scheme could be 10 units at +1, 20 units at +2 and 30 units at +3 or better.
It seemed to me that you didn't really encourage privador to play that game as opposed to me.

Francis Salmon

Surrender, especially ES or ES10, is better for the card counter than is implied by the off-the-top edge, whose big bets benefit more from ES than the basic strategist. Also, the lower risk makes for less variance, or, at least theoretically, more EV for less risk.

Thanks for posting this data. Did you get a SCORE for this game, say with an optimal betting ramp to $10,000? That might shed some light on the value of ES10 in shallow penetration.

ETF

...more EV for the same risk...

OMG! That was too f'n funny. It was so hard too contain my laughter here at work.

suspicious that you are trying to "butter up" privador?

Because I believe you are still hoping he opens his own casino, and you are planning on going in and cleaning him out.

:)

Don't forget, the best way to do this is to play a penny-ante game at home, and play until you hit a long losing streak. Then go to his casino where the odds "must" even things out and you will hit a long (offsetting) winning streak to break the bank. :)

BTW thanks for the pointer to the 3:2 SD game. I'm going back down to the MS coast for a weekend trip in a month or so, any other good pointers to good games other than those around the Beau/Grand, and boomtown/IP, and the Copa. I've been to a few others just "passing through" (Treasure Bay, etc) but did not notice anything particularly "interesting" when I did.