Online-Casino: increase bettings ?

I play Single-Deck-BJ in an Online-Casino with different success, but was able to win sometimes a good amount of money. Momentarily, I play only with the money I got from the bank. My problem is how to increase my bets. I play Basic Strategy with no progression (normally) and the Black-Jack Calculator promises me a winning rate of 0,15% cause of the good rules they offer. But I am coward and fear to loose all my winnings when I start to bet higher amounts (naturally without any progression), because sometimes I lost my money and winnings rapidly, although wonderfully a little later I got almost all the money back. What could be a good strategy to increase the bettings ? Sorry, I am not from the US and I play only Online since last year.

I play Single-Deck-BJ in an Online-Casino with different success, but was able to win sometimes a good amount of money. Momentarily, I play only with the money I got from the bank.

I don't understand, your bank or the casino?

My problem is how to increase my bets. I play Basic Strategy with no progression (normally) and the Black-Jack Calculator promises me a winning rate of 0,15% cause of the good rules they offer. But I am coward and fear to loose all my winnings when I start to bet higher amounts (naturally without any progression), because sometimes I lost my money and winnings rapidly, although wonderfully a little later I got almost all the money back. What could be a good strategy to increase the bettings ? Sorry, I am not from the US and I play only Online since last year.

I hope you're asking how much you should increase bet because your bankroll is larger, not because you want to press your bets during a winning a seesion.

The answer is simple: your optimal bet is approximately equal to: (bankroll)(advantage)/(variance). For blackjack, the variance is about 1.15, and you said your advantage is 0.15%. (What is the Black-Jack Calculator?)

If you bet this way, you must adjust your bet on each hand, possibly betting fractions of units. If do not adjust your bets, you will have about 13.5% risk of ruin. As an alternative, you might consider betting half that amount and adjusting the bet size after a large gain or loss.

"For blackjack, the variance is about 1.15,"

No, that's the one-hand s.d. Variance is the square of that, or 1.32.

Of course, rules can increase or decrease that value.

Don

If you are sure that you have a positive EV game (and that the site is not cheating), then you may want to just use a bot that has been programmed to play correct BS. You could then bet at 1/10 Kelly so that ROR is practically eliminated. The bot could also automatically re-size bets as bankroll increases. Turn the bot loose for a few days and cash out your fortune. Or have the bot do cash-outs every day until the site closes you down.

BTW, I would be somewhat skeptical that this is an honest game simply because it would be so easy to beat in the manner described above.

Assuming the guy has a million dollar bankroll, and pretending for a second this is a coin-flip game at even-money, this guy will get a return of 22.5$ per hundred hands betting 1/10 Kelly. That is not a great return on investment. Actual blackjack would be even worse.

It would take rather longer than a few days to cash out a fortune. A building society would bring greater rewards.

I think the joint Nebo is talking about maxes out at $50.

You might be able to do better with multiple accounts spreading the risk and multiple computers. However, such a thing is far from trivial. One error in an hour will wipe out most of your edge. Connection problems are also commonplace, the computer has to be babysat constantly.
I have played hundreds of hours of bot play at MG software (the casino software has an option to play itself), and it is not the picnic you might imagine. Using non-aligned software to play a casino would be much, much harder in practical terms.

Although card counters tend to focus on the fantasy of bot play initially, as a practical matter you should almost always completely forget about it. There are much better options online, and I don't just mean bonus hustling.

If I owned an online casino, I'd make every blackjack game technically marginally beatable, and still expect to make a profit.

Very enlightening response.

I have been playing quite a bit of online poker and a common belief is that there are bots in play at most of the major sites but that they are not very good. Of course, the supposed failings of the poker bots have to do with application of strategy, which is much more straightforward with BJ. I have not looked into the application much myself, but I was under the mistaken opinion that the mechanics of implementing a bot would be relatively easy (assuming one understood the programming requirements, of course).

Its always nice to learn new things.

Of course, the supposed failings of the poker bots have to do with application of strategy, which is much more straightforward with BJ.

At low-limit, I think just a simple fixed strategy, essentially playing tight in accordance with the pot odds, would almost certainly win money. That would not make much money on an hourly basis however, though you are not doing all that much to get it.
At high levels of play I think you can just forget about it, it is too computationally burdensome. At middling stakes, well thats a toughie...it is theoretically possible but I don't know if any one has done it, if they have it would be a money machine.

I have not looked into the application much myself, but I was under the mistaken opinion that the mechanics of implementing a bot would be relatively easy (assuming one understood the programming requirements, of course).

You are kind of right. Most programmers would agree with you. However, they are probably thinking about designing such a system in theory and ignoring the inefficiency of internet communication, the fine details of card recognition, and glitches. Bugs in many more complex applications can be safely ignored. Bugs in a poker bot could mean the difference between winning and losing.

Bots certainly have their uses. I use them for information gathering and some sports betting processing functions (they are commonplace on the betting exchanges such as tradesports.com or betfair.com). I just don't trust them:)

I am always the player. My actual bankroll consists totally of the winnings. Black Jack Calculator = 'Blackjack Basic Strategy Calculator' from Mister Eric Farmer (great thanks to Mister Farmer, good job), available on bjstats.

Several times I thought of using a bot. Sometimes the game is quite boring. Playing more then 750 hands during 3 hours and winning only half a unit is not enjoying. On the other hand one can win 12 units from the start of a game with 8 hands in a row. Sometimes I feel like being the main actor in a thriller and I won't miss this feeling. I, too, can't be sure of the advantage the casino is promising. How about cheating looking at the result of my last game ? Loosing 4,5 units during a session of approximately 140 minutes with 585 hands (loosing almost every split, but gaining a lot of double downs and having fewer BJs than the bank) ? In the game before I won 10 units with 39 hands. I know only 2 Online-Casinos that offer Single-Deck-Blackjack with identical rules.

Playing more then 750 hands during 3 hours and winning only half a unit is not enjoying.

Nebogipfel,

Is the software (or your internet connection) so slow that you can get only 250 hands per hour?

Dog Hand