I think I've exhausted my explanatory powers on this one, Boot. In a now-famous (at least for me!) exchange of letters between Peter Griffin and me, on a subject I can't even remember anymore, I stubbornly (moi, stubborn?! :-)) tried to convince Peter that he was wrong about something and that I was right. There was no e-mail in those days, and the exchanges went back and forth by snail mail for weeks. In the end, he gave up trying to disabuse me of my, alas, erroneous notion, and quoted Samuel Johnson in the process:
"Sir, I have found you an argument, but I am not obliged to find you an understanding"! :-)
You're just restating what I already wrote to you about the dealer's one, big, seven-unit bet. I told you that his e.v. for that bet is zero, and his s.d. is 5.46. For the player, his e.v. for his one-unit bet is zero, and his s.d. is 1.12. So, on any given round, whose s.d. (or variance) is going to be closer to his e.v., the dealer, who is 5.46 units away, or the player, who is 1.12 units away?
Don