New Counter Questions

I am pretty new still, having started counting in January '16. I've now played about 225 hrs using KO Preferred with decent results. I have a few questions about my approach for the experienced folks here.

1. I operate with a replenishable bankroll, so my main concern is with session ROR since overall I will never go broke (I have a day job). I usually spread 15-2x200 or 25-2x250 for 8 deck games. For single day sessions I always bring $3k with me, and for a whole weekend $5k. Is my aggression at a good level for those numbers assuming 6 and 20 hours of play respectively? I wong out at TC-1.

2. Let's say I have a good start to a day session and I find my $3k turned into $5k in 20 minutes. Should I be aggressive and spread 50-500 for the remainder of the session? Or should I continue in the same stakes? Assume that win or lose I would still bring the same $3k next trip. I guess this boils down to: is it worthwhile for me to press my wins by moving up within each session, since the increased variance is isolated to single sessions/trips?

3. I recently started backcounting and wonging very aggressively at some clubs. If I sit down at a table with TC3 and want to flatbet or use a small spread, how much should I be betting? So far I just sit down and bet 100 then double to 200 at the pivot (TC4). Part of me wonders if I should be betting more in these spots (like 150-300).

4. The other day I was scouting tables looking to sit down, and I saw a very fast dealer (~150h/hr) that cuts 1.5/8 decks and a slower dealer (~100h/hr) that cut 0.75/8 decks. Assuming HU play and all other rules are equal, should I favor pen or hands per hour?

I am most interested in hearing some street sense from people that have "been there done that". Thanks!

In the 1st question you asked, you already answered yourself, in the first sentence of the 2nd question quoted below.

"Let's say I have a good start to a day session and I find my $3k turned into $5k in 20 minutes."

What about the flip side of the coin? Figure it out. I will answer the question absolutely NO WAY.

"2. Let's say I have a good start to a day session and I find my $3k turned into $5k in 20 minutes. Should I be aggressive and spread 50-500 for the remainder of the session? Or should I continue in the same stakes? Assume that win or lose I would still bring the same $3k next trip. I guess this boils down to: is it worthwhile for me to press my wins by moving up within each session, since the increased variance is isolated to single sessions/trips?"

JM, you did not provide enough information.If you want straight answers do not make remarks like:
"Assume that win or lose I would still bring the same $3k next trip."
That is just too much assuming,are we supposed to assume you have enough cash for the next trip,or 2,3,5 10 or whatever number of trips?

#3rd question: I have no idea how much money is in your BJ playing bank? Are your living expenses coming off of the same bank? I have to assume that they are because you said you have a replenish-able bankroll provided by a day job. If you lost your funds how quickly could you replenish it? Personally I would not bet to amuch higher risk based on future earnings at a job.

4th All the rules are the same ok,but you do not say how many players are seated at each table.

Ps if you respond to my post I might not see it as I do not visit this site to often,so do not be offended if there is no re-reply.

JM,

You failed to provide complete information, so the following results are for an 8D, H17, DAS game with 6.5/8 pen and 3 other players played at 100 rounds/hr, except as noted below.

1. I used the canned CVCX "KO Preferred" sim, which does not allow the player to switch the number of hands he plays (to permit switching from one hand to two with the count, I'd have to have your complete bet schedule and run a new sim), so I used an optimum bet schedule of 1-18 ($15-$270) for the $15 game, and 1-14 ($25-$350) for the $25 game: these top bets should have approximately the same Risk of Ruin as your stated 2x$200 and 2x$250.

I was baffled by your comment: "I wong out at TC-1". Since KO is a RC system, how do you calculate the TC? Therefore, the results below are for play-all.

Here are the TRoR (trip risk of ruin) and Win Rate numbers for play-all:
BR $3K, 6 hrs, $25 min: 30.026% TRoR, $40.59/hr WR
BR $5K, 20 hrs, $25 min: 32.228% TRoR, $40.59/hr WR
BR $3K, 6 hrs, $15 min: 15.001% TRoR, $32.78/hr WR
BR $5K, 20 hrs, $15 min: 16.998% TRoR, $32.78/hr WR

2. If you're willing to stomach the increased TRoR, then you have my permission ;-)

3. For the $3K BR and 6 hr session, if you wong in at RC >= +3 and flat bet $250 (and, of course, wong out for RC < +3), your TRoR is 7.056% and your WR is $34.67/hr. You'll play 6.2% of the rounds seen. If instead you bet $250 at +3 and double to $500 at +9, your TRoR is 17.084% and your WR is $48.95/hr.

On the other hand, if you wong in at 0 with $250 and double to $500 at +7, your TRoR is 28.060% and your WR is $64.42/hr. Using "0" as your initial wong point maximizes your SCORE for wonging with a 1-2 spread.

4. CVCX gives 8D pen only to 7/8, so to sim this I'd need to use CVData and, thus, I'd need your whole bet schedule. Thus, here I'll compare 6.5/8 (as above) to 7/8:

BR $3K, 6 hrs, $25 min, play-all, 4 players total:
6.5/8, 150 rds/hr: 38.922% TRoR, $60.89/hr WR
7.0/8, 100 rds/hr: 28.064% TRoR, $52.62/hr WR

BR $3K, 6 hrs, $25 min, play-all, heads-up:
6.5/8, 150 rds/hr: 38.592% TRoR, $60.69/hr WR
7.0/8, 100 rds/hr: 28.194% TRoR, $52.81/hr WR

Thus, as long as the rds/hr are maintained, the presence of others doesn't have much effect on your results.

Here are the wonging results:
BR $3K, 6 hrs, wonging $250 at +3, $500 at +9:
6.5/8, 150 rds/hr: 25.144% TRoR, $73.42/hr WR, 6.2% played
7.0/8, 100 rds/hr: 21.225% TRoR, $68.04/hr WR, 7.8% played

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks for the information BoSox.

"JM, you did not provide enough information.If you want straight answers do not make remarks like:
"Assume that win or lose I would still bring the same $3k next trip."
That is just too much assuming,are we supposed to assume you have enough cash for the next trip,or 2,3,5 10 or whatever number of trips?"

The math says I am just exposing myself to increased variance by moving up in stakes. I was simply wondering if this is something that experienced players would recommend on the rare occasions where I start a session off with a big win. My point with the "assume" statement was that the results I experience by moving up wouldn't affect the fact that next session I would still start off with another $3k trip bank at my normal stakes.

"#3rd question: I have no idea how much money is in your BJ playing bank? Are your living expenses coming off of the same bank? I have to assume that they are because you said you have a replenish-able bankroll provided by a day job. If you lost your funds how quickly could you replenish it? Personally I would not bet to amuch higher risk based on future earnings at a job."

You should assume a $3k trip bankroll. My living expenses are separate, but I make enough that I am always able to bring $3k with me on any trip.

My question is how much I should be betting from that $3k trip bank when I wong in at TC3 instead of playall. I wasn't sure if my 100/200 spread was too small.

"4th All the rules are the same ok,but you do not say how many players are seated at each table."

Assume heads up ("HU") play.

Thank you very much Dog Hand!

1. While I use KO Preferred primarily for my betting and strategy variations, I also use TKO as a sanity check to avoid underbetting early and overbetting late, which gives a slight improvement (more pronounced with shallower penetration). This also gives me a good idea of when to wong out, instead of memorizing the numbers for when to leave based on decks dealt.

TC = RC - (4 x #decksDealt) / #decksRemaining

So for instance after 1 deck is dealt if the RC is -3, then the TC is (-3-4)/7 = -1 and I stand up.

I suppose it would be difficult to simulate this since I bet using TKO at the beginning/end of the shoe, and based solely on the RC in the middle.

3. Thanks for this info, it is very illuminating. I am particularly surprised that the TRoR is only 7% for flat betting $250 here! I guess I need to be more aggressive.

4. I think you might have misinterpreted my question, but you answered it anyway. I was assuming heads up play and wanted to know whether to favor penetration or rounds per hour. It is always astonishing to see how big a difference penetration makes on RoR -- I would probably opt for the slightly smaller $/hr in favor the 30% reduction in TRoR.

These sims make me feel better about my approach. But I still wonder somewhat if this is the approach you would use in my position? Would you bet more or less than what I've described if you were in my shoes?

Thanks again for your help.

"The math says I am just exposing myself to increased variance by moving up in stakes. I was simply wondering if this is something that experienced players would recommend on the rare occasions where I start a session off with a big win. My point with the "assume" statement was that the results I experience by moving up wouldn't affect the fact that next session I would still start off with another $3k trip bank at my normal stakes."

JM,experienced players would not recommend on the rare occasions where you start a session off with a big win, that you attempt to use some sort of parlay system for the rest of the session. You only talk about a trip bank, and you are being completely mysterious in the rest of your explanation "The golden goose with the reappearing 3k as needed" regarding a real working bankroll, like everyone else does,leads me to believe you are only interested in some sort of classroom question, and not being serious.

Someone serious would not start off in their 1st post only saying that you play an 8 deck game without stating the rules of the game you are playing! Do you think that is being fair,for anyone trying to give you a serious answer? In case you are interested, there is a HUGE EV DIFFERENCE in comparing good and bad 8 deck games.For the information that you did provide, regarding the 1st question in the 1st post, I still think you are over betting, when you walk in the door, with your trip bank,which you could lose very,very quickly in one bad shoe.

"My question is how much I should be betting from that $3k trip bank when I wong in at TC3 instead of playall. I wasn't sure if my 100/200 spread was too small."

No one can answer correctly without knowing the up front house edge, based on how many decks, and the rules of the game.

4th All the rules are the same ok,but you do not say how many players are seated at each table.

"Assume heads up ("HU") play."

Since you are relatively new to the game,I recommend you go for the deep pen game for many reasons, mainly from reading your post and thinking you still have plenty to learn.

At that many cards in play, I'l be there all day and follow that dealer every where they go at very low spreads or hugh spreads and real short sessions an hour or so apart and come back the next day and on and on till the pit shows me the door or for that matter maybe the dealer. I'd love to find a dealer like that! Location please.

Good Cards, LWC.

It's a long term game. It never starts or ends. I might raise my wager slightly, but thats it. It's just like what I call chasing the rabbit. Example:

Let's say I'm playing red and I'm down 1k and still have 2k left in my trip BR. I want my money back and I want it back right now and today. I lost 1k in one hour. I'm moving up to green because I want it back quicker than I lost it. 10 minutes later, I'm down my whole TPR. Now I'm down 3k instead of 1k. The ride home is always a lot nicer when you leave a winner. And a lot easier even if you lose knowing you didn't do anything stupid. Theres always tommorow. I hope you get my point. I learned that one long ago, the hard way.

Good Cards, LWC.