need words of encouragement

Down 5k with 10k bankroll, 4 weeks, playing 4 days a week.  Spread is $5, $10, $25, $50, $100-$100 at true counts of 0,1,1.5,2,3,4.  Place I play is H17, DAS, early surrender, max 4 hands after splits, and cannot hit/double after splitting aces.  Using Stanford Wong's Hi-Lo.  I think I saw Don S say 3 months the odds should push back, but I feel so discouraged right now.  Anyone else have streaks this bad?  Most astonishing thing is last 3 weeks I never had 20 against a 6 or 5 with true counts of 4+ (looking to split).  Just need some love right now, feeling down.

You're playing a decent game (although you didn't tmention penetration) with a decent spread.  It will turn.  Patience.

Don

Oops, forgot.  Its about 4.5 decks in a 6 deck shoe

You lost 25 big bets over a month playing 6D.  I lost 35 big bets in back to back shoes playing 6D.  In fact, I lost 22 big bets in one shoe playing a 4 deck game heads up.  I don't even know if that's mathematically possible.  But I did.  Feel better?

wow @anonomuss12086393, are you doing better now?  Did the odds bounce back for you?  I'm sorry, that sucks

I was just trying to point out those can be normal swings and they were among the worse I can remember over a very long time.  I'm sure there are much worse horror stories others could post.  In balance, I've also won 25 big bets a week three weeks in a row with a 1-40 spread on a deeply dealt 8D game with very good rules and won 21 straight day long sessions once for not insubstantial amounts.  I've also lost 552 units in a week with no cover play and a 1-5 spread on a SD game that was basically even off the top and dealt a fixed 4 rds to 3 and 3 rds to 4.  I got pissed, not dejected, drove 4 hours home, got more money, drove 4 hours back and won 720 units in the next 3 weeks.  Everybody that counts cards has horror stories.  That's why most counters focus on the year end results and for the most part ignore the ride that got them there.  If you want to think about a bad streak then analyze it.  Calculate the mathematical probabilities and the SDs and you'll see, from a mathematical standpoint, it wasn't as improbable as it seemed.  In fact, play enough, and it is expected.

I want to clarify a couple things.  I hate that this is the first thing we need to make sure of, but blackjack is paying 3-2 right?  (not 6-5)

Second does the $100-$100 mean you are betting two spots of $100?    The way you listed your bet amounts and what count you bet them is a little confusing because I see 5 different bet amounts and 6 different counts.  Could you clarify for me.  

What I am sort of thinking is that you might be overbetting.  Playing at a pretty high RoR, and now that you have lost 50% of BR probably definitely need to think about resizing down a bit.  

I wouldn't be so eager to split those 10's vs 5,6, even @ TC +4.  If you are overbetting and you surely are now that you have lost half your BR, that is just the kind of high variance plays you can't afford to lose.  

Hi Kewlj, thx for the post.  now that you state it that way, I guess my swings are even more probable to be that way.  I'm sorry, the bets-counts were confusing.  I bet $5 at 0 or negative, $10 at 1, $25 at 1.5, $50 at 2, and two spots of $100 each at 4 or higher.  Also, bj is 3:2 payout, 6:5 is not worth it right?  I don't think 10's vs 5,6 is a bad if the math justifies it, however, it does make my swings larger.

Has the pit taken notice of your 1:40 spread?

Hey, man, I definitely have been there!  Whenever I run into streaks like this, I take some time off to evaluate my play, run the numbers, and then return with the confidence of the math in my back pocket.

I've been playing for about 15 years now, been a quiet observer on here for about ten years and not really posting anything.  I really want to keep a low profile.

I'm not the expert that a lot of folks around here are, but that 1:40 spread and a top bet of 2 x 100 with a 10K bankroll seems a little bit aggressive.  Both in terms of the bank required to sustain it, but definitely in terms of longevity.  How the hell you've played for a month with a 1:40 spread without being booted is beyond me.  

For myself, the most aggressive I like to get is a bankroll that is 100 times my max bet -- which in your scenario would mean a bank of $20,000.  Spreading to two hands in high counts reduces the variance, so when I spread to two, I allow myself to be 2 x 70% of whatever my bank says my top bet should be.  In your scenario, that would mean 2 x 70% of $100, or a max bet of 2 x 70 for a $10,000 bank.  For a 2 x 100 bet, I would want a minimum of a $15,000 bank.  So if after a loss of $5,000 you're still playing 2 x 100, you need to know that you're operating with less than 1/3 of the bankroll required to keep your RoR in a tolerable range.  

Let's take a moment to ROUGHLY guesstimate your standard deviations here. 

I'm just VERY much ballparking the numbers here, but even if I'm off by 20%, the math might comfort you! 

I'm going to guess your average bet size is about $40 -- which is hard for me to really know with a 1:40 spread.  This is a GUESS. I'm guessing what it's likely to be based on the 2 x 100 max bet and the $5 minimum. I'm going to assume you played 5 hours a day, 4 days a week, 4 weeks -- so a total of 80 hours.  If you're at a fast game without many people at the table, I bet you've averaged 100 hands/hour, so that means you've played 8,000 hands during this month.  

My napkin-back math tells me that in this scenario, I can expect 1SD to be about $3900 +/-

As a shorthand for myself, my expected value is about 30% of my max bet per hour.  If your max bet is 200, your rough expected value should be about $60/hour.  Your expected value in the scenario I'm playing with, then, is +$4800.

If your expected value is $4800
1SD = 900 to 8700
2SD = (3000) to 12,600
3SD = (6900) to 16,500

If my numbers are even close -- a loss of $5,000 is statistically on the "unlikely" end of things, but definitely within the realm of probability just outside of -2SD.

Now, here's the rub.  Let's calculate this backwards.  Your loss of $5,000 is statistically possible within -3SD as long as your average bet is MORE than about $33.  If your average bet is less than $33, then the math doesn't work out and your loss of $5,000 is outside of what the math expects.

If this is the case, there's a problem with your play or the game that you've chosen and you need to check it out!  

Good luck out there man, blackjack can be a fickle mistress!

  
  

wow @forever21, that was a good analysis.  thank you so much.  How have I not been barred is beyond me also.  I always hear the pit and dealers talk about barring teams, so I guess they don't suspect solo players.  I know splitting tens is and playing two hands at high counts is aggressive, but they don't seem to mind.  I've read both books by Stanford Wong and Don S., and the content suggests that this is an area where the player decides how much heat he/she wants, and what type of longevity is desired.  I will recoup and come back with a larger bankroll and report.  Hopefully this streak doesn't continue.  

As for the math, the only number that differs from mine is that I should be making about $34/hr.  These numbers are taken from Wong's benchmark rules.  ($16 for basic benchmark rules + $23 for early surrender +$4 for double after splits - $5 for hitting soft 17 - $4 for tipping).  There is a good chance I'm looking at this wrong, I don't actually do any calculations or sims.