Insuring BJ

I'm sure this has been discussed previously, but when is it
appropriate to take even money when you're dealt a blackjack?
Recently I was dealt a BJ on a moderately positive count, and
I would normally have insured the hand. After all, I figured
it was more likely than not that the dealer had a 10 beneath
her ace, and I didn't want my BJ to go for naught. Am I missing
something here? Thanks in advance.

Curious George

You have to remember what insurance really is, a side bet whether the hole card is a ten or not. It has nothing to do with that blackjack or hard sixteen you are sitting on (except for how your cards affected the count, of course).

I am not sure what you asking, so this may not answer your question. But "taking even money" is just another form of taking insurance. If you count says to insure, then take even money.

My off the cuff answer saids your count should be over , +17 for even money to be consider. If your playing pure mathmactics S.D.

You didn't say if you were using Hi-Lo, Hi-Opt, or any one of the other dozens available. But if you are using Hi-Lo (which I what I use) a true count of +3 or higher indicates you should take insurance.
(I think it's about +2 1/2 for a single deck game but I figure that +3 is a close enough simplification.)

"It�s the only sure thing the casino offers." At least that�s what the dealer and bosses tell us when our blackjack faces the dealer�s Ace-up. Although you absolutely never take insurance, everyone knows what a bad bet that is, you gladly take even money. Guess what, the casino just ripped you off. Even money is insurance, nothing more, nothing less, and it�s a big winner for the casino.

To demonstrate the equivalence of even money with insurance, consider the following. For even money, if you bet $10 and get a blackjack while the dealer shows an Ace, you win $10 on the spot. But what if instead you take insurance for $5? One of two cases occur. First, if the dealer has blackjack, you win $10 for your $5 insurance bet, and push your blackjack, a net win of $10. If the dealer doesn�t have blackjack, then you lose your insurance bet of $5 but you win $15 for your blackjack, again a net win of $10. In either case, insurance has netted $10, identical to "even money."

A time out for a little math in our standard 6 deck game. You have a blackjack and the dealer shows a Ace. Thus there are 309 cards left in the shoe, 95 of which are face cards. If you don�t take even money, then an average of 95/309 times you push against the dealer, but the other 214/309, when the dealer doesn�t have blackjack, you will win $15 for your $10 bet. Thus, on average, if you never take even money, you will win

(95/309)� $0 + (214/309)� $15 = $10.39.

So, taking even money costs you 39 cents per $10 bet. Take even money 10,000 times (the blackjack zone) and you have given the casino $3,900. For a single deck game, even money will cost you even more, 41 cents a pop, $4,100 in the blackjack zone. Aren�t you sweet! And you thought the casino was just trying to help you win.

--The Mayor

Insurance doesn't prevent your hand from "going for naught." It's nothing more than a side bet. If the dealer has blackjack, your hand loses (or pushes, if you have a blackjack too) regardless of your insurance decision.

especially when you have more than a min bet out there (for counters and non-counters alike) can have a desirable variance reducing quality aside from the aspects of expectation. Many non-counters probably should take the even money if they hit a snapper with a big bet out...not much of an issue for counters since a big bet usually correlates with a high count and a positive ev insurance situation. However with a borderline count (right at or below the insurance threshold) even money can be strongly justified for it's risk averse quality.

Does what hold true in all counts?

Nothing I mentioned in my post had anything to do with counts. Just the decision to take Even Money on BJ when playing BS.

Of course counting can affect the decision.

What is your question?

--Mayor

Mayor, I must have missed your mentioning BS in the initial post. I apparently musunderstood and thought that you were saying even money was never a good deal. Hit 'em hard, Sidewinder