Something I wrote a while back...
"It�s the only sure thing the casino offers." At least that�s what the dealer and bosses tell us when our blackjack faces the dealer�s Ace-up. Although you absolutely never take insurance, everyone knows what a bad bet that is, you gladly take even money. Guess what, the casino just ripped you off. Even money is insurance, nothing more, nothing less, and it�s a big winner for the casino.
To demonstrate the equivalence of even money with insurance, consider the following. For even money, if you bet $10 and get a blackjack while the dealer shows an Ace, you win $10 on the spot. But what if instead you take insurance for $5? One of two cases occur. First, if the dealer has blackjack, you win $10 for your $5 insurance bet, and push your blackjack, a net win of $10. If the dealer doesn�t have blackjack, then you lose your insurance bet of $5 but you win $15 for your blackjack, again a net win of $10. In either case, insurance has netted $10, identical to "even money."
A time out for a little math in our standard 6 deck game. You have a blackjack and the dealer shows a Ace. Thus there are 309 cards left in the shoe, 95 of which are face cards. If you don�t take even money, then an average of 95/309 times you push against the dealer, but the other 214/309, when the dealer doesn�t have blackjack, you will win $15 for your $10 bet. Thus, on average, if you never take even money, you will win
(95/309)� $0 + (214/309)� $15 = $10.39.
So, taking even money costs you 39 cents per $10 bet. Take even money 10,000 times (the blackjack zone) and you have given the casino $3,900. For a single deck game, even money will cost you even more, 41 cents a pop, $4,100 in the blackjack zone. Aren�t you sweet! And you thought the casino was just trying to help you win.
--The Mayor