Index plays

What is the expected value added by using index plays?
For example: in a typical casino, I start with -0.5% using basic strategy alone. If the dealer allows double only on 9, 10, or 11, then my advantage drops -.09%. I�m curious how much is added to the value by using index plays.

It depends on:

Which indices.
How many indices.
The accuracy of your indices.
What count the indices are associated with.
the rules in effect
the level of penetration

Basically if you are playing shoe games bet-sizing is far more important than your indexed plays.

If you move your money with the count and play basic strategy you get about 70% of the gain you would using indices.

If you count cards and use that information only to change your playing decisions, your advantage improves very little. You'll be very lucky to improve from -0.5% to 0.0%. The exact % depends on the rules, counting system, etc. Most of the advantage in counting cards comes from betting more in positive expectation situations, not by deviating from basic strategy.

Personally, I get a lot of satisfaction when I stand on that 16 against the dealer's ten and he or she breaks. And those insurance calls with a max bet. Orgasmic!

Cobbson

It really stinks when you stand on 16 and the next card is a 4 or 5. However, for the first time ever I split tens vs. dealer's 6 (when playing alone and losing several max bets). My first card was a 5 (which would have give the dealer a 21) and the next card was a 10 (couldn't split again). So I won twice instead of losing once. But even then, it wasn't an orgasmic experience. Hope you're not a screamer.

who like you know Basic Strategy down pat, then start to give you grief once they see you deviating from it, such as not hitting 16 against a 10 and your occupying the last box. You can't exactly tell them what the count is.

I love it when they say do whatever you want to do, but just be consistent. Like the cards know which player hits on 16 and which player stands on 16.

If they know basic strategy they then have been playing 99% of other players who do not play basic strategy, so they should be used to what they consider poor play.
If they do not like it, it still does not matter unless they are covering your loss. In other words, they do not matter.

Hit some 12 vs 4's or 5's and see them squirm and leave the table. Isn't that what you want anyway, a heads up game? Only another counter would know you made the correct decision anyway.

BJC

If I am hitting on 12 vs. 5, then I would want the other players to stay at the table. However, If I am standing on 15 vs. 10, I would welcome their departure!

Yes, you want card eaters at negative counts.

If the opportunity presents itself near the end of a negative shoe, then this kind of variation from BS can often clear the table and you have an opportunity to begin the next shoe with less company.

By the way, standing on your 15 vs 10 in a positive count can also get people to leave, especially if the dealer is stiff and lands up making a winning hand against most or all of the table.

It all comes to your playing your hand the best you can and not thinking much about the other players.