Impulsive Betting

I don't know if I'm an alien or what, but I always seem to get more excited about a large loss recovery than a big win. If I am a couple thousand down and catch up to within 300 I am smiles for days. If I score a big win, I'm content, but I somehow tighten up, perhaps out of a fear of overbetting my b.r.

I guess it's a good thing, but I am jealous of ploppy's primal excitement who win a grand in a session and jubilantly say, "This just paid for all my Christmas shopping!" I can't help but thinking, what about the hit you took for 4 g's last week? What's going to pay for that?

It all comes down to finding the fine line between having fun and remaining logical and businesslike. Staying businesslike is especially important if you are compulsive like me and have a tendency to overbet your bankroll when you're down in a particular session. Even though, overbetting could theoretically reap big rewards for me in the long run if I don't go bankrupt first.

I base my bet sizing largely on the conditions of the casino. In other words, if it's a place I know I can get away with it, I'll operate with a much steeper ramp than I would in a "heat joint" whether I'm up or down. I know if I don't exploit the loose places, I'll pay for it EV-wise in the needed camouflage at the tighter joints.

My one bad habit is that I'll play in places that have marginal rules and pen. I'll and always play half my max bet when I first get an edge and max bet at >3. This is because I don't give a rat's ass if I get barred there. But mostly because there aren�t too many options where I live, and I don�t want to wear out my welcome at the few good places.

Sorry if I went on a rant. I thought it might spark up some conversation though about how people deal with the more impulsive part of their betting habits. Nobody is a robot and perfect Kelly is impossible.

Rule number 12 of Don's Team play rules in Blackjack Attack:

"There is no such thing as luck, a hunch, a feeling, intuition, or forcasting hot and cold dealers or tables. The latter, in particular, is fiction. You are to play mechanically, according to sound mathmatical principles, as if you were a machine. If you do not wish to play this way, DO NOT PLAY AT ALL!"

You really need to try a little harder not to let emotions get in the way. Have a plan, stick to it. Simple.

> If I am a couple thousand down and catch up to within 300 I am smiles for days.

> if you are compulsive like me

> and (I) have a tendency to overbet (my) bankroll when (I'm) down in a particular session.

> overbetting could theoretically reap big rewards for me in the long run if I don't go bankrupt first.

> I'll play in places that have marginal rules and pen.

> I'll play half my max bet when I first get an edge

> max bet at >3. This is because I don't give a rat's ass if I get barred there.

> mostly because there aren�t too many options where I live,

Do you do anything right?

And finally ..

> Nobody is a robot and perfect Kelly is impossible.

Pardon me, but I have never heard anyone who was serious about winning at BJ justify un-disciplined play as thoroughly as you have.

If losing big -then working your way back to ALMOST even is what get's you off .. you've developed the perfect strategy.

Unfortunately, I am trying to shed my ploppy ways. I grew up in a family plagued by gambling addiction. It essentially plummeted them from lower-middle class to poverty. I have been seriously counting for about six months now and am slowly bringing my e.v. up to where it should be in order to give myself a decent chance. I've read about 15 books and spent countless hours practicing.

I have to admit, I am deeply jealous of posters on the board whose main conflict is how many indices they should memorize before FIRST stepping into a casino. Being a dealer for years, looking to left and seeing my mom putting all her rent money into the slot machine is disheartening to say the least. This is my motivation. Perhaps, my drive to make money off the casinos I now hate is a bit too emotional.

I know I'm not even close to becoming an expert counter, but every day I become a little more efficient, a little more confident. I know that overbetting is not too bright, and I have vowed not to do it anymore. I am way up overall since I started counting. And I'm not nearly as dumb as I make myself sound. I cannot remember the last time I lost track of the count or made the wrong strategic move. (to my knowledge). I am a great actor and I understand the politics of the pit, inner-workings of surveillance, etc. This makes camo much easier to mitigate and 95% of the time unnecessary.

I know my good fortune could be favorable s.d., and an incredibly lucky streak. However, I am probably doing something right to be up after 500 hours. My last battle is refining my betting structure. I know working with such a steep ramp is very dangerous. I admit, that's the one area I have not read much on and in many ways the most important. I plan on dedicating significant time studying Kelly, s.d., r.o.r., benefits of wonging, etc. before I go out again and hopefully carry me to the next level.

It seems to me you know where you are lacking, but still choose to dance with the devil. My Mom worked in a factory and my Dad worked making jets for AVROW. Both of them inherited some money and they blew it making stupid decisions. My 3 sisters and I will probably inherit a bill when they pass away. There failure has nothing to do with me, like your parents has nothing to do with you. Focus your compulsion on something positive. You have to start thinking about yourself in a positive fashion. You seem to identify yourself with your families past, as some kind of loser. I am being honest with you, not trying to be mean or anything. Take this like a good kick in the ass. You know you have what it takes to be a good counter or better. You look like you want to talk about your personal problems more so than about your playing habits. CHANGE your habits by being an advantage player, not the other way around. There are tons of guys that use counting as a mathematically good reason to continue to GAMBLE when they should not be doing so. As soon as you feel the desire to overbet come over you, STEP AWAY FROM THE TABLE. It's like the alkies first drink. Just one won't hurt right? You have to be able to identify these feelings with TEMPTATION. The devil knows all your weaknesses, and he knows where to set his traps for you. Consider the proper bet size as the STR8 n NARROW PATH. All day long I am tempted to do this, say this, think that, and over time it gets so easy to do the right thing, not the wrong one.

Out of the ashes of my own life I am building something beyond my parents wildest dreams. My Dad considers himself an expert at handicapping horses, did so for a number of years since Woodbine is a stones throw from AVROW (now MaGellin [sp]), now thinks he is a poker player.......with no bankroll. He says that once he wins the lottery he will have a bank to go play poker with. There's a table I'd like to be sitting at! This Christmas he bought us $46 in lottery tickets instead of spending $20 each on the two grand kids. Some people were never meant to be RICH. And worse than that, it has FK'd up his entire spectrum on life. My Mom thinks all players are losers thanks to him. She can't make her mind up if I am lying about the money I am making, or if I am making it by doing something wrong and should go to jail some day soon. When I explain how easy it is to both of them, it somehow goes over their heads. They are of the impression that you have to spit blood and guts to make the minimum wage! Dad won't go on the Internet because he knows he is impulsive, and thereby cuts himself off from the REAL advantage play. He dare not follow in my footsteps because I am Jr and he is Sr. Mom is finally hooked up, but has no desire to basically double her income for an hours work a day. Sad.

So there you have it. I am living the abundant life they both dreamed of. Make up your mind now to let go of the past and become a victor, not a victim. You can spit blood and guts to make the minimum wage, or worse, overbet your bankroll (which is supposed to be play money you can afford to lose), or become an advantage player. You've got what it takes!

Your Pal
The Pastor of Positive EV
Rob McGarvey

I want to thank you deeply for your insights, Rob McGarvey. I cannot explain how much that post meant to me. My family is littered with dreamers who think that a Brink's truck will magically appear in their garage one day with the safe wide open. I am the first to graduate college, and the hopefully the first to overcome the temptations that paralyzed men with the brain capacity and street smarts of CEOs but without the discipline to make a dime in the long term.

Lack of funds in not an excuse for them. This is America, and while upward mobility is vastly overrated in our idealism, it is much more possible here than anywhere else in the world. Speaking of online gambling, that is one area I have succeeded quite well at, but could've done even better if it weren't for my impulsive behavior.

I feel like the cartoon character with the devil over the left shoulder and an angel over the right. I will often bet too high or way past the wagering requirements, justifying it by saying, "oh I'm just playing with a higher standard deviation than I need to be for camo purposes. It makes me look like a 'real' player." Also, knowing that the places I lost at offered me many more return bonuses sits in the back of my mind.

I guess I need to keep a constant reminder of the long-term. You're right. I need to quit thinking of my gambling in relation to my family, and start thinking about myself. I think I feel the responsibility for all my relatives, dead and alive, in becoming the first to break through the working class barrier. This, along with pure primal energy, is at the roots of my overbetting. I need to quit dreaming so much and remember how much more gratifying something is when earned over a long period of time rather than in a couple minutes. Your post will help as a reminder of the long term. Thanks again.

Rob McGarvey -"The Pastor of Positive EV"

That was pretty clever Rob. Sad to see the Church of Positive EV shut down so suddenly. I guess that's what happens when the Senior Pastoral Staff lose sight of it's primary mandate to shepherd the flock. So what happened to the Arch Bishop?

(Hold on -honestly -not really "sad" at all. Truth be told, that synagouge had become a real mess.)

What you had to say to PinkMartindale was right on target. More and more I become a believer that we are part and parcel, and much the same, as those who raised us.

The bible says that the sins of the father are passed down from generation to generation. It is SO hard many times to actually recognize that something you were taught as a child, or just learned from observation, was simply wrong.

And then to actually make a positive change -and stick with it -is monumental.

But hey, the Eagles said it best ... "Get over it."

Good luck to you, and good luck to you as well PinkMartindale.

You CAN do it right.

You are welcome. I would like nothing more than to hear of you becoming a weapon of mass destruction. Primal energy? Okay......... Harness that like we do with a nuke generating station and feed the juice out slowly guy. Sun Runner speaks of the Eagles. How about the Stones:

"Ti-yi-yi-ime, is on my side, yes it is"

Patience and perseverance are your friends.

You really should not re-size your bets. MathProf has led many discussions of what re-sizing your bets and using erratic spreads can do to your path to NO. The players here I respect generally agree that one should accept a tolerable fraction of Kelly until bank is doubled or halved. Once you have reached either level, only then should you adjust your maximum bets.

I too know gamblers who have learned to count. One told me of a session over a couple of days where he went from $23K ahead to $90K down and then was barred from a strip casino where he had a long and complimentary history. When he was stuck he decided a $5K big bet was okay.....his official maximum was $500.

If you change your bets, the math gets thrown out the window. So there you are with no hope of finding expected results over a reasonable amount of time.

My family also had issues with success. It took twenty years for my grandfather's grave to get a proper headstone. Mostly in our family the next generation inherited bills. But you can choose your own role models.

It sounds like you doubt your abilities to grind out a winning game at the casinos you frequent. It is often suggested that players who suffer lousy local conditions take their games to better regions. I think the single most important advance in my game this year is a discriminating eye about playing conditions and discipline to play only games with a higher SCORE. You should invest in Auston's BJRM so you can see for yourself what you may expect from local games the way you play them. There are many features in this software to persuade you that variance can only be overcome by playing the best possible games available. The best possible games are in Vegas, Tunica and other Mississippi locations, and northern Nevada. There are others. But if you are able to rebound from a loss of several thousand dollars after 500 hours of play and still be viable, it sounds like you have the bank and chutzpah to take it to the next level.....if only for a few days' trip.

Find the nearest airport and get out of town. You may find that, like some other successful players, your improved EV more than makes up for the travel expenses and never look back. NO is directly related to EV, and if you don't trust your ability to overcome poor rules and conditions with disciplined play there is probably a good reason for that.

"Rob McGarvey -"The Pastor of Positive EV"

"That was pretty clever Rob. Sad to see the Church of Positive EV shut down so suddenly. I guess that's what happens when the Senior Pastoral Staff lose sight of it's primary mandate to shepherd the flock. So what happened to the Arch Bishop?"

Well, I can't speak for his Bishopness and his church. I am a pastor, which means I am protestant, ie protest-ant. My flocks EV exceeds anything seen before by moral sheep.

"(Hold on -honestly -not really "sad" at all. Truth be told, that synagouge had become a real mess.)"

It could have had something to do with the lease with the landowner, more than likely anything of a negative EV from the Bishop. The church was rezoned into a shopping plaza. Go figure! It is my opinion that the Bish is a man of excellent judgement, and probably didn't want to get any peanut butter and jam stuck to his tie and sleves. Things like this can make a man go into seclusion, and that would be the worst case scenario for all of the posi EV sheep of every religion.

"What you had to say to PinkMartindale was right on target. More and more I become a believer that we are part and parcel, and much the same, as those who raised us."

I feel that the king of pop wants everyone to learn about why he is getting "freaky with it" and all his bothers and sisters Ma and Pa do not want people to know all of the "ins and outs" of the past. In the process what is he creating? How many more generations of damage are we going to tolerate? One man CAN make a difference, good or bad.

"The bible says that the sins of the father are passed down from generation to generation. It is SO hard many times to actually recognize that something you were taught as a child, or just learned from observation, was simply wrong."

True. Not shown enough of the world you could think that anything outside of Nevada is a fairy tale. Many lessons in the good book are simply natural law at work. My kids used to play Fish and now they are playing Crazy 8's! They often go to bed with playing cards all over the sheets. What have I done!?!? ;>

"And then to actually make a positive change -and stick with it -is monumental. But hey, the Eagles said it best ... "Get over it." Good luck to you, and good luck to you as well PinkMartindale. You CAN do it right.

AMEN! Can I still say that here??

"It is my opinion that the Bish is a man of excellent judgement ..." -Rob

One would have thought. I mean, the guy wrote some excellent books and he is in the BJ Hall of Fame you know.

But some of the posts that were put up, in his name, during the debacle that led to his church's demise .. were unquestionably mean spirited, steeped in poor judgement -be it personal or business -and just plain loopy.

Oh well .. Merry Christmas to all.