I Don't See Why Anyone Plays This Game!

I've been using Casino Verite for 5 months. I've been playing 6-deck, strip rules, using a level 3 count more powerful than HiLo that is played perfectly with a tight wong out point. I've played 10,000's of hands and continue to loose thousands of $ playing green. The NO is 14280. Why play blackjack, a game with such huge swings? I've also been playing poker for 3.5 years and consistently win. Of course there are periods of down swings, but nothing like blackjack! I can't see why the casinos should care at all about individual counters? The edge an AP has is so small and the swings so extreme.

Just like poker, BJ does have it's swings.

But over the long run the odds in counting come out to just that "in the counter's favor'.

It's like the CRAPS table, swings come and go; but the odds eventually even out to exactly what the math dictates.

It might happen in 1000 plays that the odds prove themself, or over 10 billion; but they will and do.

And NO, you do not always win in poker. Hold-em luck is full of a lot of roller-coaster mountains and valleys!

is only about 100 hours of play in a casino. This is not such a rare event to be a looser after 100 hours.

I can't see why the casinos should care at all about individual counters? The edge an AP has is so small and the swings so extreme.

I think the same way. I also think if they had a few more people stacking up the chips, they would get more egar gamblers to notice and donate their $.

Are you sure you are not making any mistakes? What about your bet spread, pen, spreading to 2 hands, varying your play decisions when the TC calls for it, etc.

I said 10,000's of hands or about 50,000 hands total. Spreading to 2 hands when the count dictates with a spread of 1-8. Wonging out when the count is < -1(hilo equivalent or 71.59% hands played). I vary play based on the count and it is correct because the software tells me if I make a mistake and I have time to correct. The game is 6 deck, strip rules which is 1.5 decks cutoff. I use Brh-1 true which shows a NO of 14280 hands vs HiLo which is 15777(Dr. Harris's own simulations). Glad I used Casino Verite 1st before I used real money! I'm sticking with poker where I have been a consistent winner for the last 3.5 years and lower variance. I was looking for something to play in the mornings and afternoons in casino towns when the poker is generally better @ night(more players/games & not as many rocks). Of course I play almost daily online.

Yes, BJ is a game with swings, which takes a long time to get into the long run. On the other hand, it is very easy to play a competent game of BJ. And you rate yourself using objective criterion.

If you are a competent player and you play for 1000 hours you will make money.

Even a part-time counters playing a relatively conservative Half-Kelly can double their bankrolls every couple of years. This means that in 12 years, you would have 2^64 times your original bank. If you started with 10K, you have over half a million.

Now I don�t know as much about poker as I do in BJ, but my sense is that it is much harder to move up on stakes. SO you can make a small a mount of money very easily, but it is hard to expand.

However, I will say that if you can make 100K a year playing poker, then there wouldn�t be any pointing playing BJ.

Thats going from 1 hand of 1 unit up to 2 hands of 8 units and wonging out on anything less than -1. Just read MathProf's article of 4/10/00.

Yes, the swings are frustrating. You really need a 1 - 30 spread on 6 deck. I even use a 1- 30 spread on double deck when I can of course it seems that I can't really play blackjack at some of these joints anymore so maybe its not the best thing but I did win a great deal of cash from these places. If you can go down to the $10 tables if there are any and spread $10 - 300 , you'll usually clean up pretty easily.

yes, your sim should be showing better results. But you should still give it a larger bet spread. The spread your using is typical of 2D play.

My guess is that when you say "strip rules" you mean S17 DAS LS RSA? (Not a whole lot of this on the strip anymore by the way.)

OK, I plugged some representative values into some of my good old programs here and came up with a decent guess that your win rate is probably somewhere around just under 4 units/100 and the SD is around 45 units/100. If these numbers are off, then by all means we can easily come up with a different answer.

OK, this gives you an N0 of right around 14000 and a SCORE of 71 with an overall expected winrate of just under $100/hr. (We're playing green as you said.) Pretty good. Next we can see that after 50000 hands you have a 2.5% chance of being down $2800 or more and a 0.25% chance of being down $28,000 or more.

I don't know what your actual numbers are in the game, but this my friend is precisely why those players who do not have what we call "replenishable" bankrolls tend to play to a risk of ruin somewhere around 0.5%. In this case, to have a lifetime ROR of 0.5% you would need a bankroll of over $35,000.

Of course, that said - you would have to have some serious eyes of steel to lose $28,000 and not resize your stakes with only $7,000 left!

By the way - I too agree that any casino that worries about any counter (real or imagined) that is not hitting them for some serious cash is just being stupid, wasting their time, and likely costing themselves a lot of money.

..could you get away with spreading from 1X1 - 2X8 and consistently wonging out at -1 on a pitch game! I'm pretty brazen and even I wouldn't try this one!

I'm thinking you missed the 1x1 - 2x8 thing here?

I have CVData and have not been able to come up with the stellar results the author has detailed with his counting system. The data I quoted was from the author. My own sim, using strip rules, the indicies and optimal betting spreads the author details and using a 1-10 spread/2hands when the count warrants shows a NO of 30596, SCORE of 32.68, win rate of $76.92/100 hands/hour, sd/100 of 63.77. The simulator has many, many areas to input data so one mistake somewhere could throw things off. I assumed the author was right and I made a mistake(s) somewhere? By the way I lost a total of $11885 over those some 50,000 hands. That would equate to approx. 500 hours of casino play. Maybe that is within an expected range but I though the results would have been better.

I am a little confused about the numbers. In the first post, the figure you gave for NO was somewhere in the ballpark of 150 hours. That is a reasonably good game. Then you 500 hours (50K rounds), would be over 3 N0. It is hard to lose over a period of 3 N0!

OTOH, your post above gives a N0 of about double that, about 300 hours. This is a poor game. You 50K of hours is a little over 1.5 N0. Loosing over 1.5 N0 is not typical, but it does happen.

Your statistics are complied by the computer, and so are accurate? Are you checking for errors in your play?

I have the software set to check for errors in play. The approx 14,000 NO is what the author shows in his tables as what the results should be. The 30,000 NO is what I sim with CVData using his number to input. If your familiar with CVData, it does require many input numbers, boxes to check/uncheck and a mistake could be made somewhere. That's why I assume the author is correct? My playing results are what they are over this many hands.

Pitch games with a 6-1 spread have gotton me consistently barred all along the strip. Far better is to use a 4 - 1 spread with a 2 - level count or better with a high playing efficiency, e.g. Hi Opt II, A O II

If I'm winning, I play no more than 45 mins. Losing is unlimited until it turns around and I win a decent chunk back, then I leave.

But the issue is about proper bet spread with 6D. I personally play mostly 6D with a spread of 1-20. I have only been bared once in five years while playing it. I'm thinking about going 1-25. I wong out at -1.5 to -2. Sometimes when the coast is clear, I'll back count and wong in at +1.5. Maybe it's my act and/or I'm just very intuitive as to how warm the heat is.