How do indexes work?

My one and only previous post seemed to start a pissing contest between some members, and would hate to have that happen again.  But I would really like to understand this, so at the risk of putting a damper on the whole "Peace On Earth" season, could someone answer this for me?

Let's take my 16 vs a dealer's Ten up-card for example. Basic strategy says, surrender if you can, if not, hit.  And the deviation says stand on any positive count.  My question is, does the deviation override the surrender?  Or just the hit?  This seems to me like a fundamental question, and it occurs in several places in the basic strategy tables, but I haven't seen it addressed anywhere.

TIA.

Oh, and by the way, 

Peace.

Lupo

The index to surrender index takes priority over the index to stand.

As Gronbog said, the priority is to surrender. If surrendering is not allowed, then you must stand with a TC equal to or greater than zero. Otherwise you have to hit.

+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|     TC     |      Probability      |        Standing       |        Hitting        |        Doubling       | 1 | 2 |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|          6 |   0.00780229775119936 |  -0.56907377671743375 |  -0.60961272007917133 |  -1.21922544015834267 | R | S |
|          5 |   0.01062479094491303 |  -0.56413781534563978 |  -0.59960628881607758 |  -1.19921257763215516 | R | S |
|          4 |   0.02352372474584670 |  -0.55882220041995445 |  -0.58843326770236137 |  -1.17686653540472275 | R | S |
|          3 |   0.03324884909174893 |  -0.55414407144455113 |  -0.57772954306192292 |  -1.15545908612384585 | R | S |
|          2 |   0.07049369173944747 |  -0.54945341639560219 |  -0.56644905938886536 |  -1.13289811877773072 | R | S |
|          1 |   0.10617007858083666 |  -0.54521236289853825 |  -0.55531289777758208 |  -1.11062579555516416 | R | S |
|          0 |   0.22514296072755205 |  -0.54112781119206133 |  -0.54389181127082964 |  -1.08778362254165928 | R | S |
|         -1 |   0.22293038916024879 |  -0.53771093927868951 |  -0.53364850731615310 |  -1.06729701463230620 | R | H |
|         -2 |   0.13759626345022322 |  -0.53410606551746742 |  -0.52237399234839443 |  -1.04474798469678887 | R | H |
|         -3 |   0.06357766031755364 |  -0.53074620719881882 |  -0.51068688139469842 |  -1.02137376278939684 | R | H |
|         -4 |   0.04297091153120088 |  -0.52781061934628504 |  -0.49961417285811510 |  -0.99922834571623020 |   | H |
|         -5 |   0.01945282425639147 |  -0.52512584640098992 |  -0.48786463767742733 |  -0.97572927535485465 |   | H |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+

Sincerely,

Cac

I’d like to say something different. For the 16vs10 hand, there are at least two indices for this one hand. Deviation indices alway take priority over all other decisions.

I like your body of work.  It includes a lot of details; however, it also involves some complications.  I’ve argued this with you and Don about using the Floor or Truncation function for true count (TC) calculation. Your probability numbers show asymmetry around TC=0, as follows:

TC=+1 probability = 0.10617

TC=0 probability= 0.22514

TC= -1 probability = 0.22293.

Why do we introduce this complication for such a symmetric problem?

"Why do we introduce this complication for such a symmetric problem?"

Because, if you truncate, the 0 bin doubles in size, to almost 45%, which causes other problems and inaccuracies.

Don

The truth is the TC=0 probability is about 45% for normal blackjack shoe games. If we distort it, do we exaggerate the card counting profit? 

You simply don't understand the process. You can reckon TC by rounding, truncating, or flooring. The only one that gives 45% is truncating, and it's the worst possible way to create indices or use them.

Don

Basically, you are saying that if we use truncating for TC calculation, we will play basic strategy about 45% of the times. If we use flooring or rounding, we will play basic strategy about 22.5% of the times. However, whatever math function we use, we will not improve the card counting profit, I guess. 

No, I didn't say that. BS doesn't mean TC = 0. They're not the same thing. In any event, your second statement, about the 22.5%, is wildly wrong. We play BS the vast majority of the time. Do you really think you're making playing departures 78% of all the hands you play? What sense would that make? Just because a count is different from zero, doesn't mean the hand you just received lends itself to a departure. You're thinking about this all wrong.

Finally, the last statement you made is also not true. We floor, instead of truncate, because it wins more money, which I've told you now, three times.

So, this is difficult, even for you: You've written three sentences and all of them are incorrect!

Don

Don,

I must respectfully disagree with your concluding statement: I don't believe making three consecutive incorrect statements about blackjack is difficult at all for aceside ;-)

Dog Hand

P.S. Congratulations on the new book! I predict it will be an instant classic.

"Congratulations on the new book! I predict it will be an instant classic."

From your lips to God's ears. Looking forward to the printing, which now may not be till early February. Paper shortage! Go figure.

Don