Help please , with fluctuation!!

I thought I would ask around here from the more experienced players. I have been playing for about 4 months and because of my close proximity to a casino I play often, sometimes 5-6 days a week.

I was doing pretty well for the first three months, winning and losing but creeping up in bankroll. The last two weeks have been something like I never personally seen. I have lost 150 units in about two weeks spreading 1-4. In the last 9 sessions; I have lost 7 of 9 times for a total over that stretch of -176 units. I play a 8 deck backcounting and only play at TC +1 at $25 tables. I have lost in many ways some at very high counts. I have cut back my spread and continue to lose at high counts. I have reviewed my play and keep accurate notes and records. I think my play and count has been solid so far as I can ascertain. I have become reasonably well read as I am on my 11th book on BJ.

I have bet on sports every day for over three years profitably and have come to be accustomed to streaks and fluctuation. Being new to BJ, I just wanted to hear from others about how they got through periods like this.

Any advice or wisdom from more experienced players?

Your result is completely "normal" in the mathematical sense; making it almost unremarkable.

Your spread of 1-4 in an 8 decker is earning you a better than break-even game as you frequently "wong-out" but you neglected to mention how many hours of play you are referring to. That is a crucial factor here.

I was playing 8 deckers with A.C. rules recently (many hours) I was mostly using a "Play-All" approach but utilizing your "White Rabbit" approach sometimes.

I played with a spread of 12-1 (spread over two or three hands)
I won nearly 400 units (or about 33 Max bets)
My next trip may produce an equivalent loss.
I understand that. You need to do the same.
Jettison any emotional attachments that you have to money.
This is "part and parcel" of Blackjack. It is a game with high variance. The hourly standard deviation of a particular game with its rules and a particular betting ramp, Card Count, penetration, etc. varies but is always HIGH; although yours is not extreme due to the excellent risk aversion measures you have in place.

Fluctuations, as you know, are unavoidable. But, the higher quality game you play, the more in-the-money sessions you'll have and the more you'll make. Just because it's a blackjack game doesn't necessarily mean it's beatable for any significant amount of money by either counting or even backcounting. Eight decks needs good pen, even wonging in. What is the pen at the games you are playing? During about a 4 month, we had 3 people backcounting eight deck games with around 2 1/2+ decks cut off. It was basically a waste of time, all fluctuations and little win rate. On the other hand, one of the most profitable situations I've played was eight decks with a deck or less cut off and late surrender. Not crowded, I could play one hand of $10 then ramp up to 2 x $200 at +5. A faster ramp up means larger swings but yields larger profits, a factor to consider. I could just stop playing at a negative count, stay at the table, then jump right back in if they count went positive again. That's a good eight decker.

anonimuss- thanks for the reply and yes, I did neglect that stat. The pen over the last four months usually is no worse than 2 decks, maybe a little more and I leave that dealer. Actually, last night pen was what I would consider good; 1.5 or so. This bad session was at a low limit table so I think they leave the pen alone.

Believe it or not, I have it where I don't play off the top with some bs excuse, wait till TC +1, get in slowly at $25 and spread to two hands of $50 maybe $75 each, getting there one chip at a time if count warrants. Dealer doesn't seem to care as he just thinks I'm a little superstitious, etc. I also quit at neg counts and just sit there. It sounds obvious, I know but it is a tourist group of tables and there are all kind of people doing crazy stuff and getting in and out so I use it to my advantage.

With all that, still getting killed!

Thanks so much for the response.
My total hours over four months is about 120. I am roughly breakeven maybe up 20 units.

My hours over the last two weeks for this variance is 26 hours for this negative 150. The negative 176 is over 21 hours in 8 days.

It seems pretty extreme to me. Last night I actually busted out my $600 session bank and left a TC +5 count. The TC stayed +4 to +5 hand after hand and I lost and lost. By this time I was actually betting less than what the count would support.

I am going to go back and review everything including my indicies, etc. but this is tough. I maintain a positive expectation mentally but it is hard to watch this happen right in front of me.

On some level I know this is fluctuation. Round after round of players would come and go because the dealer has just been brutalizing the tables I have been at over the last week. Many of those hands I just sit and stare, not playing as I have been able to get away with it "White Rabbit". I get in at high counts, count climbs and I may win one hand out of 7-8 by end of shoe.

FLASH and anonimuss told you like it is so I won't add anything to that perspective. However, that's why I hated the movie 21. (spoiler coming up). Except for one scene, the team won every hand they played. Big positive count, big bet, big winnings. It just doesn't happen like that. The swings, if you are betting right, are tremendous. If the dealer would just bust at 15 or 16 at monster positive counts, I could quit my day job. Alas, I will be droning away tomorrow. If you truly have a long term winning track record at sports betting, stick with that.

Thanks again. Yes, I have been struggling with the swings because it is so much different than sports. With sports, often you will go on a huge losing streak only to make it all back in the weeks/months to come as long as the system is intact and you stay on track.

I think in hockey last year I went something like 6-29 at one point but had an OK year in hockey. I seem to remember another person I know going 27-76 in another sport, can't remember and doing OK at the end.

With cards, I feel like there is no pendulum, no necessary reason for this not to continue tomorrow or the next. I understand the long run but may not get there.

It has been a learning curve and plan to push on.

bfeege,

I checked Don Schlesinger's BJA3, Table 10.10, page 219, for an 8D, S17, DAS game with 6.5/8 pen (you indicated this pen elsewhere in this thread).

For backcounting and spreading 1:4 with a $10,000 BR, Don suggests a practical spread is $75 at +2, $100 at +3, $150 at +4, $200 at +5 & +6, and $300 at +7 & up. Entering at +2, you'll play only 15% of the rounds. You'll win $35.84/hr (W.R., or Win Rate) with a 12.50% Risk of Ruin (RoR). Your hourly Standard Deviation (S.D.) will be $587.25.

Think about this a minute... about two-thirds of the time (actually, 68.3% of the time), your results for an hour of play will be within one S.D. of your W.R. This means that 68.3% of the time, your results after an hour will be between ($35.84-$587.25) = -$551.41 and ($35.84+$587.25) = +$623.09. That's a pretty broad range: -$550 to +$620.

If your BR is different that $10K, simply multiply the bets and W.R. by a factor of (BR/$10,000). The S.D. will vary as the square root, so multiply the S.D. by SQRT(BR/$10,000).

If you're unit is $25, you'll need a BR of $3,333 to maintain the aforementioned 12.50% RoR. Your W.R. will be $35.84*($3,333/$10,000) = $11.95/hr, and your S.D. will be $587.25*SQRT($3,333/$10,000) = $339.05/hr.

If you're unwilling to sustain a 1-in-8 chance of losing your entire BR, then you'll need a higher BR.

Finally, be thankful for variance... if the variance were zero, AP's would win every single time they played... and they'd all be 86'd ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

The best recipe for success at Blackjack is to play games with good penetration, no more than two other players, late surrender, and have loss limits firmly in place. The author of Blackjack Gold told me a long time ago; "a counter should be willing to lose no more than 4-6 max bets on any given game for that session." Funny about that, I got the same kind of advice for poker from a seasoned pro player. Lose 30 max bets in any poker game and that signals the end of that session.
Also, without variance you could never win anything because you could never lose anything. Like coin-tossing. Over the long haul, you'd expect to break even. The variance is your greatest ally. It's up to you to treat it with the respect it rightfully deserves. It's really a game between you and yourself with you defining all the parameters.

Thanks so much for that analysis. My thinking is that I may draw some suspicion waiting for only +2 to enter. I thought +1 was reasonable but I do undersand that by only entering at higher counts, you can bet bigger theoretically with same RoR and therefore increase expected WR.

So, would you know how the above would change if I were to enter the same games at +1, $25 unit base unit, spread to $100 at those levels you mention? The reason I ask, is that this is essentially the strategy I have been employing. My understanding is this strategy gets me into more hands, raises my variance and I would think my WR as well but at a cost of variance. No?

By your analysis, I am positive in WR but less than I thought.

...until you die. If you look at it from this viewpoint it will help you cope with wild fluctuations between these two points in time. It's all one continuous game.

Cobbson

according to Gorgon, your BJ career ends when you lose six max bets. I don't think that is what he had in mind. I can't imagine what he is thinking, because to leave a table at a high count (therefore the max bets) after losing six max bets does not make sense to me. Those are the situations where you win most of your money. Assuming, of course, you don't lose most of your money, as just happened to me.
Although I don't enjoy losing money, especially when I'm supposed to have a big advantage, I know its part of the game. The original poster is learning this lesson.

bfeege,

For an 8D, S17, DAS game with 6.5/8 penetration, if you wong in at +1 (HiLo) and use a 1:4 spread in quarters, CVCX suggests betting $25 at +1 & +2, $50 at +3 & +4, $75 at +5, and $100 at +6 & up. You'll play 26.3% of the rounds, your average bet will be $36.53, your W.R. will be $14.21/hr with an Initial Bet Advantage of 1.476%. Your S.D. will be $48.00/hand played, or $246.40/hr. With a $4300 BR, your RoR will be 13.3%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thank you very much. That helps a lot!

You said:

If your BR is different that $10K, simply multiply the bets and W.R. by a factor of (BR/$10,000). The S.D. will vary as the square root, so multiply the S.D. by SQRT(BR/$10,000).

This is incorrect. Standard deviation will vary directly with unit size, not its square root. If you decrease your unit size to one-third of its original value, for example, you decrease your s.d. to one-third of its original value as well.

I believe the confusion stems from the fact that s.d. varies with the square root of the number of hands. For example, if you play 100 times more hands, your expected value increases by a factor of 100, and your s.d. increases by a factor of SQRT(100) = 10.

David

Sorry for not being more diplomatic than the harsh "This is incorrect...."

I had been up writing all night--my diplomacy skills are better when I've slept a bit :-)

David

2 hands, splits, resplits, double downs. Stop loss methods don't work for counting. Pen, rules, heat factors and bet spread do work. Funniest hand I had happened at the highest count I remember playing, around +22 somewhere in there. 5,3 one hand, 6,2 the other hand, for 2 hands of 8 vs dealer 7 up. First hand got a 2 for a total of 10, then another 2 and a 5 for hard 17. Second hand got a 3 for a total of 11 then a 6 for a hard 17. Needless to say, the dealer had an ace in the hole. You dig and go on.