Green Chip Play for Fun vs Profit

There are two types of green chip players: those who play for fun, and those who play for profit. Here is an easy way to tell the difference - those who play for profit don't last as green chip bettors.

By "green chip players", I mean players who bet units of roughly $25 chips, even though they may actually use $5 chips to make a $25 bet, or use $100 chips to make a $200 bet. The Kelly bankroll needed is only around $7K. You really just need $1K for a session, and the willingness to scrape up more if necessary.

What happens to green chip players who play for profit? They double the bankroll in 200-300 hours. Then they double it once more and become black chip players with $30K+ bankrolls. That's when casino countermeasures become a real problem.

How can you tell recreational players? They have been playing at the same level for a long time. They use complicated systems, multilevel with side counts. They like these counts in handheld games instead of more profitable shoe games. They justify costly behavior with bad math.

For example, a player wrote (on another board) his favorite blackjack moment was standing (instead of splitting) on 9-9 vs. 4 to get an extra round. Well, the EV for splitting is 32%, and EV for standing is 17% (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix5.html). He paid a 15% penalty on one hand to play another round with a 2.5% edge. Ouch! I guess he didn't really want profit, he just wanted to feel like he was playing with an edge.

Others justify costly behavior by "cover" from "heat". Some recommend declining free room comps to stay anonymous. They travel far to play four hours per day making optimistically $50 per hour. Realistically they won't cover expenses and earn minimum wage.

That's okay because most casino customers lose money. My main criticism is when recreational counters justify their behavior in terms of profit. The advice of long-term green chip players is for hobbyists who want to break even, not players who want to make money.

Now you've moved on from character assasination to class disparagement. Before you troll through all of my posts over the past however many years (wouldn't want to put a specific number down beause you will question, but many should suffice), here is my situation: I play $25 minimum tables (sometimes that means 5 red chips or even 4 red chips and two pink chips or five white chips). I play primarily at Foxwoods, every once in a while in AC, and probbaly three trips to LV every two years. I spread 10-1 on shoe games only but sometimes overbet to up to $500 per hand. I get comps from wherever I am able to play without sanctions. I rarely tip but will do sometimes during big winning streaks, for some cover (probably not worth it)but mostly to be nice (I know that diminishes EV). I sometimes bet two units off the top, probably another feeble attempt at cover. I don't keep trip reports or notes but know when my bankroll is up or down. It's currently $25k and I've probably taken out $15k over the years for home projects (new roof, sidewalk, etc). I know, another cardinal sin. As to your 9-9 example, you are right but who cares? It's one out of thousands, if not millions of hands over a lifetime. And maybe he wasn't right, but maybe he wins one hand instead of winning one/losing one or losing two.
So, yes I am a recreational player but I do play to win. Maybe not every bet correlates with the exact count but I do bet more when the count is positive. Maybe I sometimes use a little bit of ill-conceived cover. I don't use complicated multi-level systems and only play shoe games. Yes, I've left tables at very high counts after losing big bet after big bet to save a trip profit. Another cardinal sin but good psychologically.
So I guess pros like you never tip, never use any cover, put the perfect Kelly bet down on every hand, and only play perfect games.
I stayed out of your whole Flash diatribe, although my recent dealings with him have been very positive, but your holier than thou attitude is grating. And your vieled shot at Flash again in your second to last paragraph reflects poorly on you again.
Who died and made you the king of blackjack? Since you double your bankroll every 200-300 hours, you must be one of those whales we hear about. I can think of several other animals which better describe you.

What about a pro, who's only source of income is blackjack? We are playing for profit, but no way are they betting the levels you suggest for the bankroll you are suggesting. Betting a black unit and spreading 1-12, 1-16 with a 30K BR would be enormous RoR, suicidal in fact. Those numbers may be ok, with an easily replenishible BR, but most pro's don't have an easily replenishible BR. My current BR is just over 80K and I still play a green ($25) unit, spreading 1-16. I want to have as tiny a RoR as possible, because once my BR is gone, I am out of business.

Someone like myself who's only source of income is BJ, is not going to double the BR every 300 hours because we are playing such a small fraction of kelly. We also can't just let winnings ride. There has to be a point that we take some money out to live on, so if you are playing professional, your BR growth will be much slower.

you've moved on from character assasination to class disparagement.

I just asked whether FLASH was lying, and quoted his posts. Apparently on BJ21, liars, hypocrites, and blowhards are a special class who deserve protection from exposure. But I get attacked for asking a simple question and then showing the truth.

I play $25 minimum tables ... but sometimes overbet to up to $500 per hand. I get comps from wherever I am able ... I don't keep trip reports or notes but know when my bankroll is up or down.

Excellent. I have recommended such "overbetting" and "taking a shot" in the past. You understand comps are valuable. You don't take this too seriously, so you don't waste time with unnecessary record-keeping or pretentious "professional" bullshit. Instead you subsidize vacations and make a little fun, convenient money. Good for you! Oh yeah - you don't give bad advice.

As to your 9-9 example, you are right but who cares?

That player is actually proud of himself for a boneheaded strategy error. If he understood the cost then he would care! He wrote that any advice is good if it is mathematically correct. But obviously he can't tell.

These players hurt themselves and their proteges with costly advice. FLASH has lost for decades. When he finally has a good year, he declares himself a professional. Compare him to DD, Fezzik, or Chappy. They always played with an advantage, grew their bankrolls, and moved on to bigger things.

Partly it's the nature of this thing. Stanford encourages losers by marketing a bad sports service and craps books. Then people get angry because I poop on their gambling fantasy.

I don't normally read the Free Pages, but saw long-time Green Chipper FLASH's post. I've made my point already. Now I'm off to taunt cat-lovers and tell lazy fat people they won't lose weight by drinking ice water.

I agree with you on the sports betting. So what is your cumulative career win?

Once your BR gets to the unreplinishable point (or not easily replenishable) you'll need to find somthing to jump your bankroll to the next level. For most players that winds up being something like a 2:1 promo, tournament win, or some other such event. Obviously you can also grow your bankroll by just grinding out more hours and keeping your expenses as low as possible. You can also grow it much more quickly by finding a partner.

"You can also grow it much more quickly by finding a partner."
Do you mean by a shared bankroll playing independently, or the spotter, big bettor approach?

If you have 30K and your partner has 30K you can both bet to a 60K bankroll. Most would play independently.

With a non-replenishible BR of ~$30k your maximum bet is in the neighborhood of $200 depending on the game. To suggest $30k supports "black chip" action is reckless.

See John Auston's simulations in Blackjack Attack. Many players have successfully bet black chips on a $30K bankroll.

The origin of this thread was a green chip bettor who makes dubious claims of being pro. His supporters claim that regardless of his qualifications, his advice is good. But then they make clear-cut mathematical mistakes. Doubtless they also make real-world mistakes.

I think these people are trying to justify their betting levels. Their primary goal is not making money. They just want to feel like James Bond outfoxing the system. Instead of admitting they are playing for fun, they rationalize betting small or playing hunches.

In other words, they change their reasoning to fit their behavior, instead of changing their behavior to improve their games. In your case Hockeydad, you have posted about difficulty making big bets. You pay for gas and make long drives to a casino. You make costly minimum bets for hours. Then when you finally get a good count, you don't always put out the money, especially when losing. You are playing a weak or even losing game.

The truth will set you free. If you admit you are playing for fun and analyze your game properly, then you will acknowledge the cost of mistakes and play better. It's okay for recreational players to bet small or set psychological loss limits. But it is costly to pretend to be a pro and then make fundamental betting and playing errors.

Kim Lee should go to sleep again for the next years.

Elhombre

I had but two (2) losing years in the last eighteen (18).

My heavy losing years were all before I turned Pro
and still had rather considerable earned income.

no mas.

I am slightly BEHIND after 2 decades
I felt it would be less than honest to exclude my early years

in the last 18 years I had 3 years where the casinos kicked my skinny butt.
I had but two (2) losing years in the last eighteen (18).

http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi?read=94470
http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi?read=94486
http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?read=162458
http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?read=162613

LISTEN-HOW ABOUT WE END THIS WHOLE GOOD FLASH BAD FLASH THING NOW?
O.K.???

Your private emails to me were very accurate and informative. I appreciate the info. Furthermore, I appreciate what seems to be your sincere interest in providing high quality info to new and experienced, though mis-guided, players.

However, your directness is counteracting your intent. You seem way too professional to destroy your own reputation using, what seem like, mean attacks. All of your good intentions are lost when you take this approach.

You never know when you will need a resource - money, human being/friend, etc.... I highly recommend that you drop pointed attacks and utilize diplomacy.

I haven't researched your history on GC, but it could be presumed that you are purposely trying to upset folk. Turning old ideas "on their heads" to provide a new perspective can be very productive, but doing so with apparent malice(?) turns off the audience.

I hate to lose a good resource such as you, but I'm afraid your future posts will be attacked to the point I won't want to read them. Flash, from what I can tell, is a quality individual. I'm sure he would welcome and accept a kind word as a truce. This is apparent by his reply to your post "I concur with im Lee....". This is a good example of diplomacy.

In the future, you could simply warn posters to cross check their facts and challenge them to consider their perspectives. Are they being realistic? Are they kidding themselves? Is their perspective hurting their career or family life?

You have a lot to offer but your offerings will be rendered "valueless" without an audience. I hope you'll change the tone of your posts. Thank you.