General Questions

I'm a relative newcomer to counting, but I've been practicing hard for the past few months (I have BS memorized, practice counting down decks of cards about 20-30 minutes at least 4 times/week ... I can count down 1 deck in about 22 seconds, 2 decks in about 45-47 seconds without error virtually all of the time. Working on accurate and speedy counts with distractions; I turn the tv up loud, carry on a conversation, etc). I don't consider myself good enough or confident enough yet to bet a lot, but my bankroll isn't the problem.

I seem to be doing fairly well at 6 deck shoe games, but I haven't played enough sessions to tell if its due to skill or a statistical aberation.

I have some general questions:

1) I play 6-deck shoe games and use the Hi-Lo system. I haven't got all the modified BS memorized yet, but am able to range my bets fairly well (usually $10 - $50). Obviously learning all the modified BS moves will help, but what are some other things I can do increase my % (such as keeping a side-count of aces .. how does that impact the moves and bet ranges) ?

2) Any comments on T.J. Reynolds book, 'The complete book of blackjack'? Any other recommendations?

3) Is there any correlation between a prior shoe being negative or positive and the next shoe being like-wise (i.e.: if the shoe is very negative at the time to shuffle, is there a significant statistical likely hood of the next shoe having a negative count or does the act of shuffling remove any correlation

4) Hi-Lo seems fairly easy to me to keep the true count. Are there any additional things I can do to help my % that are relatively easy to implement?

Thanks,
John

find a great 6decker and if the b-roll supports it play 2 hands all the time you play

ditch at -2 or worse

find good games with fewer decks

try to become well liked by the dealers and pit

in a shoe game play 1st or 3rd base

i like 3rd

forget about cover just play all out

tip the dealer

"tip the dealer"

You will find many players with differing opinions on this.

Here's a link to part of an old thread on the topic, which may be especially helpful to new players.

1) I play 6-deck shoe games and use the Hi-Lo system. I haven't got all the modified BS memorized yet, but am able to range my bets fairly well (usually $10 - $50). Obviously learning all the modified BS moves will help, but what are some other things I can do increase my % (such as keeping a side-count of aces .. how does that impact the moves and bet ranges) ?

Don't worry about side-counting aces in a shoe game; it simply isn't worth the effort.

You don't need to learn all the indices. There is a list of 18, later modified to 22, of the most important ones to learn. These are called the Illustrious 18 or the Catch-22. There are also 4 surrender variations called the Fabulous 4. You might be able to find these on the web, or you can read about it in the source: Blackjack Attack 2, by Don Schlesinger.

If you are playing all with a 10-50 spread, you are probably playing a small positive expection. The most important thing you have to learn about a shoe game is to avoid playing negative counts. Again, you can read about this in Blackjack Attack 2.

2) Any comments on T.J. Reynolds book, 'The complete book of blackjack'? Any other recommendations?

I am unfamiliar with this book.

I have two recommendations: 1) obviously, Blackjack Attack 2 -- it does not teach you how to count; but it will teach you all about how to beat a shoe game. 2) Join Green Chip, where not only will you get better advice than here, you have access to the archives, which has some really awesome posts that have been made over the years.

3) Is there any correlation between a prior shoe being negative or positive and the next shoe being like-wise (i.e.: if the shoe is very negative at the time to shuffle, is there a significant statistical likely hood of the next shoe having a negative count or does the act of shuffling remove any correlation

Generally, the shuffle is going to rearrange the high and low cards around such that the previous count is irrelevant. Note that there are some people that exploit a weak shuffle using an advanced technique called shuffle-tracking.

Also note that a shoe ending a negative count is a good thing; that means more high cards came out than low cards.

4) Hi-Lo seems fairly easy to me to keep the true count. Are there any additional things I can do to help my % that are relatively easy to implement?

See my answer to 2). The wealth of information you will find in both will more than pay for the costs.

Depending on the rules of the game, with a $10-$50 spread at 6-deck, you probably have an edge of 0.4%-0.5%. Bigger spread means a lot more than additional strategy deviations. Penetration is very important.

You may wish to get Casino Verite. It's the premier practice environment for people with Windows computers.

1) I play 6-deck shoe games and use the Hi-Lo system. I haven't got all the modified BS memorized yet, but am able to range my bets fairly well (usually $10 - $50). Obviously learning all the modified BS moves will help, but what are some other things I can do increase my % (such as keeping a side-count of aces .. how does that impact the moves and bet ranges) ?

Side counting aces is a waste of time in 6 deck. With your spread, it would be better to work on wonging the 6 deckers, rather than using a play all strategy (if that is what you have been doing). With a play all strategy, your spread should be more like 10-100. Rather than working on modified BS, why not just go ahead and memorize a few index numbers, especially the ones for whether to insure, and for 16 v dealer 10 and 15 v dealer 10.
2) Any comments on T.J. Reynolds book, 'The complete book of blackjack'? Any other recommendations?

Haven't heard of it. Try Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack, and Wong's Professional Blackjack.

3) Is there any correlation between a prior shoe being negative or positive and the next shoe being like-wise (i.e.: if the shoe is very negative at the time to shuffle, is there a significant statistical likely hood of the next shoe having a negative count or does the act of shuffling remove any correlation

no correlation. Some players, in addition to counting cards, try to track the shuffle, based on their studies of exactly how the cards are shuffled at particular casinos. But that is a different matter than what you asked about.

4) Hi-Lo seems fairly easy to me to keep the true count. Are there any additional things I can do to help my % that are relatively easy to implement?

see #1 above.

Often I have seen it said that "red chippers cannot afford to tip". I don't agree with that approach.

Let's face it, red chippers can't afford to play. If you look at all the expenses that are needed to play BJ, including travel expenses, books, software, etc, there is simply no way that a red chipper can make money on the game.

The fact is that red-chippers are playing for a hobby, and these other expenses are considered hobby expenses. Why not treat dealer tips the same way.

I don't see why someone would be willing to spend $100 to drive to a session worth $30 of EV, and accept $70 of net expenses, but then be unwilling to spend $5 tipping the dealers.

I do agree that you shouldn't over-tip. But throwing the dealers a red chip after sessions where you win $100 is not going to break you. Or betting a buck every now and then for the dealer, during a winning session.

I agree that you will make more money by not tipping. But you would also make more money working in McDonalds.

Thanks for all the informative responses. I'll be picking up the suggested books, try to incremetally memorize the modified BS plays, and work on things like avoiding bad shoes (i.e.: changing tables, bathroom breaks, cell phone calls, etc), and generally taking all the good advice given here.

Regarding tiping and my expenses: I do occasionally tip during an especially good session, and sometimes I'll play $1 for the dealer when odd things happen (like after 2 or 3 consectutive blackjacks).

My expenses are pretty low; I live near enough a fairly decent game (6 deck, das, doa, late surr., H17 and decent/fair penetration (75%)) that my expenses are very low ... in the neighborhod of $2-4 for gas.

At this point its a hobby; perhaps after much practice I can use it to supplement my day-job. However, I'll keep my day job :)

At this point, if I can come home after a decent session and use the profits to pay a few bills or take the girlfriend out to dinner then its been a good day. On a bad day we go to Denny's instead of the fancy places :)

I'm disciplined enough not to play with scared money; the bankroll is my 'fun' fund I can use for blackjack, vacations, stock speculation (now there's gambling!), etc.

My goal is to eventually gain enough skill to play ranging $50-500 w/o
flushing the money down the toilet. However; I KNOW need a lot more practice, practice, practice, and a bit larger bankroll to wait out the bad streaks at that level.

Again, thanks for all the advice.

John

Thanks for the tips. I being a dealer appreciate recreational cc's. That tip occasionally especially if I'm trying to make it easier for you.

GG

I would highly resent a player routinely tipping the cocktail waitress a dollar and not even playing a dollar for me now and again.

In college I delivered pizzas. It was not all that uncommon for me to have to make a 12 mile round trip (6 miles each way) delivery in my car to get a $1 tip.

A cocktail waitress can load up with 10 drinks or so and has to walk all the way from the bar to the gaming table for a buck each.

Fezzik once said that he tips the good-looking cocktail waitresses more. I tip the good-looking ones less and the less-attractive or older ones more. I think they are the ones that really need it.

David

Your comments seem to be directed at CC's who must travel to find a decent game (midwest, east coast, etc). It is true that Red Chippers can not really afford to incur $100+ of trip costs if they expect to make any real money, but some of us live near numerous casinos and the incremental costs of going 1-2 miles is not much. Red Chippers in the latter category can plan to make some money, and I personally do not view it solely as a hobby (granted, it doesn't pay nearly as well as my day job, but does pay better than Mickey D's).

Johng, I can tell you really want to be a player among men. How? you may ask... because I was similarly inclined in the beginning. Wanting too much too soon is a common desire. One of the most successful players I know started with a $5K BR and lost every bit of it when he began to overbet his BR in relation to Kelly criteria....he soon just started another bank, after reviewing his error, and .... now it is a hundred times that. Seriously. But he always plays within, way within, his resources and never full Kelly.

You may think you have a bankroll, but do you, really? If you wanted to play $5-$60 ( by the way, this is the classic recommended 1-12 spread for shoe games considered optimal by most experts), you need a $5000 bankroll. How does that sound....reasonable or outrageous? Now multiply that by your fantasy of a $50 unit and it comes to a $50,000. bankroll. Why so much?, you may ask. Because even the best players in the greatest games will experience heart wrenching fluctuations... during individual sessions, with session results, and with bankroll ebb and flow. If you can win 60% of your sessions, you are playing well. A pro told me last night that he had a losing streak of 250 hours.....at least 'losing enough' that his receipts never climbed above his starting level during this stint. Experienced players call this "variance within Standard Deviations". Many times someone will post about horrendous losses and the tribe will tell him, "Sounds like normal fluctuation to me..." You will lose.

I think this is what is inferred by Mathprof when he says, "Most red chippers can not afford to play." I think you have a $10 unit. Many times when I play a standard strategy of I18 during good conditions at an excellent casino with outstanding pen...using your $10 unit and wonging out during negative counts.....I am down $1500 in a couple of hours due to the variance that occurs when you put out the big bets. It is not unusual.

You will need to add to your bankroll, I think. Even recreational players who like to buy nice gifts for their best girl need to consider adding to bankroll as you become an advantage player. If you do not have the money to back up your game you will tap out before you have a chance to mount a comeback. The comebacks will occur, but only if you have the resources to still be playing. Being down $1500 is not fun, but having it turn into a $500 win in a couple of hours is delightful. You do not have to agonize over this immediately, but it sounds like you have plans to extend your relationship with the game over time. What you do when you are losing is where the character of the player becomes apparent. I hope you add to your bankroll with big wins... lots of them. But variance will affect your steady climb severely. It is not against the rules to add some money to your blackjack funds from other sources as you go along. The most common reason players fail to sustain advantage play is not because they are stupid or can't count... it is due to insufficient bank.

Regards,

scobee

so far this year i have received some $2000 plus in comps betting red to green to black

comps make all the difference

tipping the right dealers can add to the advantage in many ways

this i know to be true

Thanks for the advice. I do have the bankroll for the level I'm playing at, but I certainly don't for the level I aspire to play at. However; my best guess is that I won't reach that level for at least a few years (1. I need a lot more practice and experience 2. You're right, I don't have the bankroll to weather nasty loosing streaks at that level yet.). My plan is slowwwwwwwww and steady. I won't play with money I can't lose (emotionally or otherwise), and I'm patient (but ambitious. Hwever, my spelling is doubtful)

Regarding losing streaks: the advice seems to be just keep playing the way I am; don't try to chase losses with bigger bets, etc. All that seems to make sense to me. At the level I'm playing (very small) its easy to be emotionaly detached from the losses. I'll know if I have the emotional mettle at the higher levels as I incrementally move towards them. If (if) I get to a high level of betting and find I can't suffer the losses I'll move back down a notch.

I've been through some long losing streaks already. Not a big deal when all you're betting is $10-$50. At first it was kinda freaky when the count was way high and the best I could get was a push the entire shoe (and only when I had a 21 !!!), but I've also played shoes where I just couldn't lose no matter how crappy the cards I was dealt. The variance is indeed high in this game.

Like I said, I'm very new to counting and my approach is to keep listening and go slow. My day job (tech/software) allows me to have a reasonable lifestyle, and I'm not counting on BJ to improve that (hell, I can always contract out for more tech work). I enjoy the game and aspects of counting. I'm trying to make a few $$$, but I realize I wont become a millionare doing this.

John

i have never, almost never, seen one of them get in trouble emotionally, financially, or socialy by playing the game

i have seen med to big bettors develop real problems that even for the wealty among them was to much to take and led to serious difficulty and a different type of ruin

there is often a pressure placed to bet bigger, big, or you are not accepted or good enough, at the tables or even here

the size of the bet is not that important but what you do with it

i know of games where a one to 3 spread will get the money, also some where flat betting may even do the same

just play real smart and pick a good game

and when you are taking a bad beat at a table it never hurts to move on to another

the worst that can happen is you will continue the beat there, or things may begin to go the other way

I certainly wasn't admonishing you. I was merely relating standards for growth. As I said, if you are patient you can build a decent bank to play with while you are learning. Add to your bankroll and it will grow geometrically.... it is the spread that increases variance, but allows you to play with an advantage. If you refuse to put out the money when you have the positive EV hands, you will toil in mediocrity. I think that you have the earmarks of becoming a strong player from all that I have read so far.

I appreciate your honesty and wish you the best. Keep posting and let us know how it is going.

Good cards and good luck,

scobee

There is a lot of pressure to move one's bet size up before it is advisable to do so. If your reason for playing the game is to have fun then bet size has a different meaning than to someone whose goal or need is to generate enough income to live on.

I have to play for enough to make it interesting but not so much that I am playing scared. Over 5 years I have acquired enough BR for comfortable light green play but I started red and stayed there a long time.

My goal is to be a black bettor but only with casino money. It's not the destination, it's the journey.