You’ve got what I am saying. If heads-up TC=+5, I bet $300; if at third base of a 5-player table, I bet $200 because I am not sure of the TC=+5 accuracy here.

by: aceside

+5 with one deck left

probability of a high card 23/52 probability of a low card 18/52 assuming 11 medium cards, didn’t assume 12 so that I didn’t have to say 22.5/52 and 17.5/52)

There is a 44.2% chance of getting a high card,

34.6% chance of a low card, 21.2% chance of a medium card. These change as the cards go out but if you use these % over the 4 cards that need to come out before you get your first card then on average of the 4 there would be 1.77 high cards out, 1.38 low cards, .85 medium cards.

And if a high card came out first the probability of diluting another high card drops so the above % are more likely to get closer, so using the above %s probably favor your thought of the TC dropping.

So on average when the first card gets to you the true count on average should drop from 5 to around 4.61. Then 5 more cards for you to get your second card. And all the while the probability of true count dropping being a little less likely as high cards are a little more likely to have been used. So on average the TC may be around 4.25 or probably a little higher when you get your second card. (I was also ignoring the lower divisor for TC as cards come out).

So maybe not too bad leaving a higher bet out there, maybe lowering it a little like you are doing.

If the TC started lower, say at +2, the TC should move lower at a slower rate. If the TC was higher, say at +8 then maybe it drops on average to 7 or even if went to 6 your high bet is probably ok.

But if you look at a high bet of $200 or $300 a hand and you look at some of the worst case drops over the course of several hundred hands I don’t doubt that you could easily be down $10k or so depending of course how often betting at this level and what your other bets are. Or even typical fluctuations like one standard deviation, could be, I am just guessing maybe $4k or so up or down depending on how long you play and how often you place high bets.

It is so random so there is a lot of variability and higher risk when raising bets even in advantageous situations.