Flat betting single deck game

I have run a sim on single deck blackjack to see the effect that the sweet 16 have. In doing so, I came to the conclusion that the single deck game that I am playing is a winning game flat betting using hilo and the sweet 16.

The rules are DD 10 and 11 only, BJ pays 3-2, normal insurance, no DAS, Split 4 hands, Aces split get 1 card. and everything else is normal.

Here are the results using 250 Million hands. Please let me know your thougts. I have one person saying it is impossible. If so, how? Is CVData useless? Or is my assumptions correct?

Here is the address where the information can be found http://www.performax.biz/here

Shuffle point 10

And if that 80% is the shuffle point, which it seems it certainly must be, then the last bet is placed at substantially less pen, about 70%. Even so, I have not seen this much SD pen, anywhere, in many years.

It is true. Heads up many of the dealers will deal close to the end. I have had them go to the last card on multiple occasions. Usually 10 or less cards heads up only. Penetration is still good with one other person playing too.

To make it even better. When there is about 10 to 15 cards left, some dealers ask do you have a feeling and if so they will continue on one more hand, if not they will reshuffle. This happens about a third of the time I go. It really depends on the dealer you get.

If someone can help me with my original arguement, I will tell you wehre these games are. Also it is a $5 minimum. The double deck game is just as good witha -.17% starting disadvangage. Penetration unbelievable for that game too.

With that kind of penetration, conventional wisdom goes out the door. You may very well be getting a positive EV flat betting. The D10 rule makes it less likely, but I would trust cvdata.

Bear in mind, that to make this happen in reality, you would need to have an accurate TC conversion. For instance, if there are 15 cards left, you need to multiply the running count by 3.5.

Also, you may consider a count where the ace is nuetral, since as HiOpt I or HiOpt II, depending on which level you are comfortable with. If you look at http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm, the higher the playing efficiency, the higher performance you will get.

Here are the arguments of someone whom seems very knoledgable about the game. I will keep him anonamous because I do not want biased information and I have not obtained obtained his permission to say who it is.

Here is the info for the single deck game www.performax.biz/here

Here are the players arguments.

looked over the data. I cannot spend all of the time with it that it deserves as I am on the road playing BJ.

You have the settings for the program set up wrong. That MUST be the answer.

Firstly, I imagine that by selecting the depth that you have you have done yourself a disservice. It is NOT real. The graphs show decks being played out heads up with TEN hands played. ordinarily (on average) a hand of BJ contains 2.7 cards (5.5 cards per round heads-up) That equates to 55 cards in a single deck. So, ordinarily Ten hands in a round is impossible unless ALL the TENS have been played during those TEN hands. Furthermore, the highest and lowest true counts attained are not as extreme as they ought to be, or am I mistaken about that.

You checked "Soft DD counts as Hard Hand" Is the program allowing you to Double down on hands other than 10 or 11 ? It may be doing that, because you also checked "DD on Two Cards" - Does it interpret that as ANY two cards ?

The S.E. looks a bit large to me at .007 but it is probably not an issue here.

The T.B.A. of 0.026 and the I.B.A. is .0.024 are shown.

These figures are completely impossible because you need to first overcome the [BIG] -.40 house advantage at ZERO True Count.

You must look at the distribution of TRUE COUNTS.
The nature of the True Count with ANY Balanced Count is such that it must be both perfectly symmetrical and linear -- meaning that it is NOT possible what I am seeing in your data - e.g. where you look at the positive and negative True Counts and they are not equivalent. Thus if +3 and -3 are compared they should be very very close to the same probability of occurrence.

In the TRUE COUNT DISTRIBUTION Chart some True Counts are basically non-existent. HOW is it possible that +9 and -3 T.C.'s do not hardly ever happen ? OBVIOUSLY that simply CANNOT BE.

Look at: "Win, Loss & Tied Percentages by Hand Depth" It shows that there were ALWAYS 7 hands and only occasionally could there not be 8 hands. 9 hands happened millions of time and 10 hands happened as I mentioned before. So almost all of the time a bizarre 8 hands were played. On average that would consume 5.4 times 8 rounds = 44 cards. 44 cards of 52, which as stated above will NEVER be dealt, is equal to penetration of 85% !

Under the heading of "Miscellaneous Stats" is shows: Hands won = 49.70% Hands Lost = 49.40% Pushes = .90% Less than 1% L.O.L. That is simply ludicrous.

An interesting stat displayed is "Ran out of Cards = 4,296" Ran OUT is NOT POSSIBLE if you set the % of cards to be dealt as less than what ? 85% ?

I have a Jet to catch and I still have to pack up this laptop. I took some Grad courses in Stat but i am NOT a mathematician by any stretch. I no longer have the luxury of even proof reading this. Sorry.

I am told that Norm Wattenberger is very friendly and quick to reply with Technical Support.

I strongly urge you to contact him. I also think that he posts on occasion at BJ21.com

Firstly, I imagine that by selecting the depth that you have you have done yourself a disservice. It is NOT real. The graphs show decks being played out heads up with TEN hands played. ordinarily (on average) a hand of BJ contains 2.7 cards (5.5 cards per round heads-up) That equates to 55 cards in a single deck. So, ordinarily Ten hands in a round is impossible unless ALL the TENS have been played during those TEN hands. Furthermore, the highest and lowest true counts attained are not as extreme as they ought to be, or am I mistaken about that.

I'm not sure what he is talking about. The settings you posted indicates that the number of players is 1.

You checked "Soft DD counts as Hard Hand" Is the program allowing you to Double down on hands other than 10 or 11 ? It may be doing that, because you also checked "DD on Two Cards" - Does it interpret that as ANY two cards ?

No, that means you can't double on three or more cards. Some carnival games allow this.

In the TRUE COUNT DISTRIBUTION Chart some True Counts are basically non-existent. HOW is it possible that +9 and -3 T.C.'s do not hardly ever happen ? OBVIOUSLY that simply CANNOT BE.

This is an artifact of the TC conversion. If you do the math, you will find these TC can't ever happen. Don Schlesinger talks about it in Chapter 10 of Blackjack Attack.

Look at: "Win, Loss & Tied Percentages by Hand Depth" It shows that there were ALWAYS 7 hands and only occasionally could there not be 8 hands. 9 hands happened millions of time and 10 hands happened as I mentioned before. So almost all of the time a bizarre 8 hands were played. On average that would consume 5.4 times 8 rounds = 44 cards. 44 cards of 52, which as stated above will NEVER be dealt, is equal to penetration of 85% !

Based on your setting of a shuffle point of 10 cards, I don't know what he is talking about.

Under the heading of "Miscellaneous Stats" is shows: Hands won = 49.70% Hands Lost = 49.40% Pushes = .90% Less than 1% L.O.L. That is simply ludicrous.

He is misunderstanding the statistic. This chart indicates what would happen after playing 400 rounds. The probability of being tied after 400 round is low.

An interesting stat displayed is "Ran out of Cards = 4,296" Ran OUT is NOT POSSIBLE if you set the % of cards to be dealt as less than what ? 85% ?

??? You set the shuffle point to 10. You will occasionally run out of cards (split 4 times and see how many counts you use up).

I am told that Norm Wattenberger is very friendly and quick to reply with Technical Support.

I strongly urge you to contact him. I also think that he posts on occasion at BJ21.com

While it is true Norm is very friendly, due to a spat with another poster, he does not post an BJ21 anymore. You can reach me at www.advantageplayer.com.

What is the correct e.v. for this game.
It seems to be a standard Northern Nevada Nightmare as call it.
Only kidding.
L.O.L.

??? You set the shuffle point to 10. You will occasionally run out of cards (split 4 times and see how many counts you use up).

I meant to say say, "how many cards you use up."

While it is true Norm is very friendly, due to a spat with another poster, he does not post an BJ21 anymore. You can reach me at www.advantageplayer.com.

I would not want to be accused of impersonating Norm. I meant to say, "You can reach him at www.advantageplayer.com.

-- Firstly, I imagine that by selecting the depth that you have you have done yourself a disservice. It is NOT real. The graphs show decks being played out heads up with TEN hands played. ordinarily (on average) a hand of BJ contains 2.7 cards (5.5 cards per round heads-up) That equates to 55 cards in a single deck. So, ordinarily Ten hands in a round is impossible unless ALL the TENS have been played during those TEN hands. Furthermore, the highest and lowest true counts attained are not as extreme as they ought to be, or am I mistaken about that.

- I'm not sure what he is talking about. The settings you posted indicates that the number of players is 1.

I haven't even clicked on the link, but 2.7 cards for the dealer + 2.8 cards for the player ~= 5.5 cards per round, on average.

Hope this helps.
ETF

The chart shows that about 800 out of 30 million+ shoes reached a 10th round, where on average the hand began with 41 card. I don't see what the problem is. Ten rounds would occur rarely and that is what the chart shows.

Furthermore, on average the true count for the 10th hand is -23. We would expect that due to the cut card effect. I still don't see what the complaint is about.