Extra benefit of Wonging out?

I think Wonging out could be perfected in a way to help a player win money on negative counts.

Let's pretend you enter counting heaven, and you sit down at a one deck game delt out to the last card. The pit doesn't care if you jump in and out of games, so you intend to Wong out at -1, as many suggest. You play hi lo. The house advantage on BS is 0.00%. You spread 1-2.

You're playing heads up, and you get jack ace, for blackjack, and the dealer gets queen six, and pulls a seven, for a bust. You win 150%. Now the true count, for our purposes, is exactly the running count, or -2. Wong immediately? Maybe not.

Unbeknownst to you, you had sat down at a table where the 5 cards on top were jack, ace, queen, six and seven. You sat down to play a pack rich with aces and tens. You could not have predicted it, but what I'll call the "pre-dealt" count for your pack was extremely high. In fact, everytime a negative count emerges during play, that indicates that aces and tens have been removed from the deck while you were flat betting, and waiting for a positive count.

You seem to have quite an advantage as the count gets negative and before it turns positive. Indeed, as a counter, it makes sense to Wong whenever the count is negative because the only insight you have is that the density of the remaining pack does not favor the player. However, as a negative count goes more and more negative, the EV for the player's flat-bet hands increases until the count goes back down the number line to 0 and positive territory. Of course, because a player is flat betting and he can't know just how negative the count will get (just that it is likely to tend back to 0, which is bad for the player), Wongers normally exit the deck at the first negative true count.

This could mean two things. 1: If a player Wongs at -1, he avoids all negative counts while taking advantage of the movement from 0 to -1, which, in fact, is much like a POSITIVE one count on the player's flat bet, giving the player the advantage on all hands while the pack moves from a 0 to -1 count. Or, 2: There might be a way to mathematically ascertain the best place to Wong out, and that place might not be -1. It might be worth Wonging out once a count goes directly from 0 to -2, at which point, the cards a player sees are the same cards he expects to see at a count of POSITIVE two. Of course, the counter can't change his bet or predict when such an event happens; his flat bets, however, will make him some money.

In summary, leaving a deck at a true count of -1 is a classic Wonging play, but it might be possible to stay in a game at -1 until the count goes positive and a counter can bet high on his advantage or until the count goes move negative, which would give the counter an unforseeable advantage on his flat bets. In a game that is spread just 1-2, this might make the most sense; a game with heavy betting variation will likely benefit from always Wonging at -1.

Any thoughts?

Wonging takes into consideration that the player is better off not to play any hand where the house has an edge. When the house has the edge, you dont, there's no other way around it. Card counting is built on the premise of developing an edge for the player. Therefore, you shouldn't lower your average EV by playing negative expectation hands. These hands only serve to reduce your overall expectation. Sometimes, the short trend is that you win alot of your negative count hands, but I wouldn't bet on it. I don't like to play any hand where I expect to lose. Sometimes you have to though.

I agree with all that you said. But perhaps I need to reword the very basis of my post. It is:

When a player Wongs out at negative 1 at all times, no matter what, he will actually have NEVER experienced a negative expectation. When the count is positive, he has a positive expectation. When the count GOES negatiev, he retains a positive expectation, although he can not predict it. Thus, Wonging out at the first negative count not only helps the player avoid negative EVs, but it also gives him an added, unforseen advantage. I was just wondering is there's a way to maximize that advantage without immediately Wonging on a negative count.

.... and I think a simulation will show my point. If a computer Wongs at the first negative count and also keeps track of the EV as the count goes negative, it will find that the player has a slight additional advantage that, however, won't necessarily overcome the original house advantage.

You don't know that you had an advantage until after you see the count nose dive, so you can't exploit it.

you are asking for the next best thing to Wonging out? Bet as little as possible and adjust your BS to minimize losses. Also, learn when not to double.

"Of course, because a player is flat betting and he can't know just how negative the count will get (just that it is likely to tend back to 0, which is bad for the player)"

The true count will tend to stay EXACTLY the same.

Not sure what you are getting at here, but extensive work has been done comparing wonging out at different points, and software can provide you with the most *optimum* possible point for all possible scenarios (conditions) that you may encounter.

ANS