Dealing with losing streaks

I'm fairly new to serious AP. I've searched the board and did not really find anything on dealing with losing streaks. 50 hours in I was in the black, not killing it, but in the black. The last 20 have been brutal. It seems like everytime I get a good count and raise my bet I get stuck with 14 only to see the BJ come out right next to me, or better yet on both sides. I understand variance, and that losing streaks will happen, but it gets to be pretty tough to look at after a while. Wisdom? Guidance? How do you keep your mind right during losing streaks?

Fundamental theorem of gambling is only wager what you don't mind losing. That's the idea behind being properly capitalized.

Although I don't track my play in terms of time (hours), I have had several long losing periods in my 12 year career lasting hundreds of hours.

Four times in the last 5 years I have I have had losing periods that lasted for better than 4 months, which for me, is 25-40 thousand rounds. Yet each of these years ended in the black, 3 of them, surprisingly close to expectation (only one was significantly below expectation, but still in the black).

Blackjack card counting is a game of wild swings, and sometimes extended swings. There are things you can do to minimize these swings, playing the best games with lowest N0 and getting out of as many of the negative counts, especially the really bad negative counts.

These things will help, but not eliminate the swings. It is part of the game, when playing with such a small edge as card counting.

are the conditions of the game you're playing? The rules, the pen and your bet spread.

Mostly dd pitch games h17 da2 das, some offer surender some don't. Pen varies by dealer, most of the time 65% or better.

Sorry. And a spread of 1-5 or 6 most of the time, although there is 1 dd game I play where I can get away with 1-10,

good enough. Average number of players at the table? Meaning are you getting a good average hands per hour. Crowded conditions can make card counting seem like slow death when you're running bad. You just have to make sure you're in a good game first of all then take your licks as they come. And they will come. Fluctuations have driven many a card counter from the game. I was playing an extremely tolerant SD game once, neutral off the top, 4 rounds to 3 and 3 rounds to four. Betting quarters with a 5-1 spread I lost 14K in a week. I drove 4.5 hours home, grabbed a stack of cash, and drove right back. I won 17K over the next 10 days. Keep your emotions in check whether you're winning or losing and just play like a machine without looking like one. It happens to every card counter.

sounds like you are playing with a decent advantage. and a 10-15 hour losing streak is not that unusual. I went through losses 4 out of 5 years before winning the last 6 years.

You might wait a little while and see what cash back offers come in the mail. That can certainly help offset some of the losses. And like anon said, try to find times where you can play heads up or max of one player. Crowded tables with slow dealers/players can really hurt your theorteical win rate.

I have almost always used a bigger bet spread. You can make the losses back much quicker but the negative swings will be even greater and your chances of getting backed off will go up with a bigger spread.

with all due respect.It's highly unlikely that your four losing years in your early career was due to permanent bad luck. We rather have to assume that you were not playing with an advantage by then.
A losing year should be a rare exception for a professional player and it happened to me only once (not in this millenium:-).
I think a losing streak (period between a record high and a subsequent low) shouldn't last longer than 4 months. This assumes that the player plays at least 60 hours a month and respects the Kelly-principle.
For periods longer than 300 hours your theoretical win rate should allow you to win even if you are one sd below your expected result.

Francis Salmon

If you play 500 hours a year (50,000 hands) at a decent game with a decent spread, you should be past "N02", which basically says that you have less than 2.5% chance of being behind at that point. Make that 750 hours in a year and you essentially have no chance of being behind for the year. So to lose 4 years in a row??? Need to re-evaluate all aspects of your game.

post said four out of 5 losing years, meaning 2 losing years one big winning year and then two more losing years followed by about 6 winning years. A year for me is about 100-200 hours. I have always had a full time job and usually backed off frquently and quickly so getting even 100 quality hours per year is difficult.