counting

I went and bought alot of blackjack books from good authors like Wong,Anderson and Snyder but it left me pondering about counting. I am confused as to at which point do I convert the running count to a true count? I am sure it is different from 2 or 6 decks but is it always at the same point? For example, if I see that deck is left with 2 left on 6 decks, or in 2 decks, after 1 deck has been played? What about running counts? If it is in positive territory, do I still just play basic strategy until that moment of true conversion? First time on this forum, matter of fact, on any forum, but I fell in love with the game and hoping to find some answers from you pros.

You convert immediately. Do not wait. Picture the following:
You are playing 6 decks at a full table. You are occupying two spots of course.
There are no picture cards or aces played out on the first round and the table gobbles up 26 cards in the process. Your running count is now very high. You divide by the 5 1/2 decks of unseen cards and compute a True Count that is high enough to indicate that you are already in a (rare) early shoe positive enough to tilt the advantage in your favor. If you are playing Hi-Lo, as most beginners and casual players do, your running count can be about +24 producing a TRUE COUNT of around +4.5 Depending upon your e.v. "off the top" [determined by the rules in effect] your e.v. NOW, after one hand, is approx. +2.0%. That is a very nice advantage to be at, and following most bet-ramps would have you approaching your MAX BET.

Admittedly, the scenario that I have created, happens rarely, but it does happen sometimes.

You would convert to the true count to know how much to bet and the true count also determines how you play your hand.

After the round has been played and the dealer is scooping up everyone's cards, glance (NOT STARE) over at the discard tray and note how many decks left to be played. Do your division and make your bet based upon the true count that you just computed.

Playing decisions are also made by true count. While the dealer is scooping up the cards, glance at discard tray, note how many decks left so you know what divisor is for upcoming round. When it's your turn to make playing decision, do not look at discard tray, remember what the divisor was and do your division quickly to come up with your true count. That tells you how to play your hand.

You never just play basic strategy. All decisions are based on true count. In shoe games, you'll find that most of your decisions are basic strategy. In handheld games (1-2 decks) alot of your decisions will deviate from basic. (and draw the ire of others at the table)

According to Kevin Blackwood in his book "Play Blackjack Like the Pros", page 69---"in shoe games, the true count is almost always less than the running count. A conversion is never required unless the running count is at least higher than the matrix number you need."

Dear Flash,

Thank you so much for your insight, I am beginning to understand the count conversion much better now. Question. In above scenario you described, after the play is over and I am at still +3 or +4, do I keep that number as a true count for the next play or do I again divide them by remaining decks (lets say 4 decks left)and come to +1 or +75? Again, thank you for your insight.

Flash,

Typo on my last reply to you sir, it should read +1 or +.75, I forgot the decimal, sorry.

The probability of a +24 or higher running count after 26 cards are dealt from a 6 deck shoe is 6.0067 x 10^-10. If you have a fast dealer who chunks out 6 shoes an hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, this will happen once in 31,674 years, on average.

If this ever happens to you, you're screwing up the count or else there's something funny with the shoe.

ETF

You convert immediately. Do not wait. Picture the following:
You are playing 6 decks at a full table. You are occupying two spots of course.
There are no picture cards or aces played out on the first round and the table gobbles up 26 cards in the process. Your running count is now very high. You divide by the 5 1/2 decks of unseen cards and compute a True Count that is high enough to indicate that you are already in a (rare) early shoe positive enough to tilt the advantage in your favor. If you are playing Hi-Lo, as most beginners and casual players do, your running count can be about +24 producing a TRUE COUNT of around +4.5 Depending upon your e.v. "off the top" [determined by the rules in effect] your e.v. NOW, after one hand, is approx. +2.0%. That is a very nice advantage to be at, and following most bet-ramps would have you approaching your MAX BET.

Admittedly, the scenario that I have created, happens rarely, but it does happen sometimes.

I think he was using that as an extreme example. However, there are shoes where the count soars after a couple of rounds like that. It does happen on occasion.

... in any literal sense, he has no point. If you literally "NEVER WAIT" to do a TC conversion, you are wasting a whole hell of a lot of time and effort that could be spent on things that actually put money in your pocket -- things that could literally turn an avowed loser (like FLASH) into a winner.

It's so obvious I shouldn't need to type it out, but well over half the time it's pointless to convert the RC to a TC.

ETF

If there are 31,000 BJ dealers in the USA, then this
happens to one of them every year.

BJinNJ

You might consider using thresholds. For instance, with 5 decks remaining, the TC=+1 at +5, +2 at +10, etc. Just run through the multiplication tables:
5,10,15,20,25,30,35,...
4,8,12,16,20,24,28,...
3,6,9,12,15,18,21,...
2,4,6,8,10,12,14,...

Personally, I gave up on TC conversions and use reKO. There are too many things to worry about than to waste effort counting and recalling strategy deviations.

http://www.qfit.com/REKOStrategy.htm

This is just another reason why I believe multiplying to arrive at the TC is preferable to dividing. During 6 deck play (which is 95% of my action), I play mostly by the running count. I make myself continously aware however, of what my current multiplier is at each particular shoe level should I need to know the TC. If the need suddenly arises, such as the dealer having an Ace up, I multiply.

Furthermore, I double all my index numbers and calibrate my TC to the count per 2-decks rather than the count per deck. Anywhere between .5 and 1.5 decks in the discard tray, I remind myself that I'm operating in .4 (multiplier) territory. Two decks in, the multiplier becomes .5. Three decks in, it's 2/3rds. And in the crucial part of the shoe when 4 decks are in the discard tray, the running count IS the true count. At 4 1/2 decks, it becomes 1 1/3rd. In between 4 and 4 1/2 decks, I fudge my multiplier to 1.1 or 1.2.

I find that late in the shoe, it's much simpler to either not need to convert at all, or to adjust the RC modestly upward or downward to arrive at the TC.

It was simply the most extreme example that I could quickly come up.

My basic point to count ALL the rounds is very clearly correct.

Of that there can be NO question.

What you have to memorize throughout the shoe is always the actual running count and never the true count.TC is calculated only in specific situations either to determine your bet for the next round or to properly handle an index play.

Francis Salmon

"My basic point to count ALL the rounds is very clearly correct.

Of that there can be NO question."

I have walked away from countless negative-count shoes without bothering to convert RC into TC. Countless...

Never regretted it.